Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

Exhibitman · #1 04-02-2023, 09:19 PM

The interest in a $350K card is about as relevant to the overall health of the hobby as the price of a custom mansion on the beach is to prices for tract homes 100 miles inland. The decision-making processes of a tiny group of collectors who are wealthy enough to contemplate buying a $350,000 card do not have anything to do with 99.99% of collectors. These super-expensive card buyers are basically non-responsive to economic tides due to their extreme wealth.

A better gauge for hobby health is to look at the passed lot percentages in the run of the mill auctions. They are still extraordinarily low by historical standards. Last week's Sterling Auction had 501 lots with ten passed lots. REA's March 19 auction had one passed lot. That indicates a very active buying public is still engaged heavily with the hobby and buying basically whatever is out there. Prices may be stagnant or falling on some classes of items but interest is still sky-high.

ullmandds · #2 04-02-2023, 09:30 PM

Unda

Johnny630 · #3 04-03-2023, 06:58 AM

It will sell way over $350,000 setting a new record high. This seems to be a new normal commonplace in Major Auction Houses on High-Grade Cards Specifically PSA 9 HOF Rookies.

ALBB · #4 04-03-2023, 07:05 AM

Ova

theshowandme · #5 04-03-2023, 08:01 AM

I'm going over. Him and Mays are the last two baseball gods from that era.

Goldin will be blasting it all over social media I bet.

What a card!

trambo · #6 04-03-2023, 09:07 AM

Interesting thought on the over under. Looking at the PSA pop report, the card has a total pop of 25 in a 9. That makes it one of the most common 9s in the set. There are also 3-PSA 10s. To me, it's rare but not so rare and not a top pop so the set registry chasers may not chase as hard as they would if it there were no PSA 10s.

As for the slab, it's an old cert # and at some point after it sold for $204k at Heritage in 2017, it was reholdered.

I'd likely take the under here as I'd bet with a pop of 25 in a 9, there will be other opportunities to buy the card. I'm also biased because it's not an era I collect. I don't think it makes a ton of sense to plunk down that kind of money on a card from that era that is easier to find in higher grades. Plus, it would appear you can get an 8 for less than 10% of recent 9 sales.

Should be fun to watch! Thanks for the question, too!!

steve B · #7 04-03-2023, 11:11 AM

I think it will sell for more than the last one, but not with much confidence.
The sales history looks like that card in that grade only comes up about once maybe twice a year, with occasional years with none.

I think the number of people who can buy one is small, but also somewhat insulated from a changing economy. Right now is probably a good time to buy, as the actual state of the economy is less important than the uncertainty of what's going to happen.

I would disagree that this tier of the hobby doesn't affect others. Demand and prices have been driven by publicity and other pricing as long as I've been collecting. If it was really separated purely based on condition and price we would see easily spotted steps in pricing, here the 9s and maybe 10s included. We do see a huge drop off to 8s, but it's more gradual after that. If it was purely condition based, it might look like
10 Who knows
9 300K+
8 30K ish.
567.... whatever they go for now, but all priced right around the 6 price.
345 maybe half that or even less,
below a 3? a very cheap card like it was in maybe the late 80's. saleable, but with stagnant prices, since the only buyers would be beginners, people with little money, or as a temporary space filler in a collection.

raulus · #8 04-03-2023, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

A better gauge for hobby health is to look at the passed lot percentages in the run of the mill auctions. They are still extraordinarily low by historical standards. Last week's Sterling Auction had 501 lots with ten passed lots. REA's March 19 auction had one passed lot. That indicates a very active buying public is still engaged heavily with the hobby and buying basically whatever is out there. Prices may be stagnant or falling on some classes of items but interest is still sky-high.

Adam - I guess I'm not as familiar with the thinking behind why passed lot percentages are a meaningful metric as a gauge for the health of the hobby. Could I trouble you to unpack that a bit more about why you view it as meaningful?

Unless I'm mistaken, a passed lot is merely a lot that didn't get any bids. I suppose part of the fun there is where the auction house puts the initial bid, and whether that's an attractive price point. But even if just one person bids, then the item wouldn't fail, right? I suppose it's also possible that if the item has a reserve that isn't met, then that might count as a passed lot.

Part of me also wonders whether a big part of the calculus here is the question of whether the auction house is deliberately turning away relatively worthless pieces (maybe a 1988 Donruss common in BVG 6 as an example) such that they never get to auction, and therefore never have a chance to fail because no one will bid the minimum $10 on them.

luciobar1980 · #9 04-03-2023, 12:22 PM

No idea on price, but that's an insane card

Exhibitman · #10 04-03-2023, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

Adam - I guess I'm not as familiar with the thinking behind why passed lot percentages are a meaningful metric as a gauge for the health of the hobby. Could I trouble you to unpack that a bit more about why you view it as meaningful?

Unless I'm mistaken, a passed lot is merely a lot that didn't get any bids. I suppose part of the fun there is where the auction house puts the initial bid, and whether that's an attractive price point. But even if just one person bids, then the item wouldn't fail, right? I suppose it's also possible that if the item has a reserve that isn't met, then that might count as a passed lot.

Part of me also wonders whether a big part of the calculus here is the question of whether the auction house is deliberately turning away relatively worthless pieces (maybe a 1988 Donruss common in BVG 6 as an example) such that they never get to auction, and therefore never have a chance to fail because no one will bid the minimum $10 on them.

Sure. I've been watching passed lot percentages in 'collector' level card auctions since the Great Recession. At the worst, some auctions had 30% of lots not open. I noticed during the pandemic boom that virtually everything sold. I think in 2022 I had one passed item among hundreds of card lots I consigned to cash in on the surge in prices. To me, the fact that nearly everything still is selling is evidence of broad interest in the hobby. There are a ton more middle-class collectors spending relatively modest monthly budgets than there are wealthy collectors pursuing six-figure cards. The latter make the headlines, but the former are the bread and butter of the business. My take-away from passed lot figures is that despite the many auctions out there, collectors are not saturated and not fatigued. Prices may fluctuate, but interest is still high.

raulus · #11 04-03-2023, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Sure. I've been watching passed lot percentages in 'collector' level card auctions since the Great Recession. At the worst, some auctions had 30% of lots not open. I noticed during the pandemic boom that virtually everything sold. I think in 2022 I had one passed item among hundreds of card lots I consigned to cash in on the surge in prices. To me, the fact that nearly everything still is selling is evidence of broad interest in the hobby. There are a ton more middle-class collectors spending relatively modest monthly budgets than there are wealthy collectors pursuing six-figure cards. The latter make the headlines, but the former are the bread and butter of the business. My take-away from passed lot figures is that despite the many auctions out there, collectors are not saturated and not fatigued. Prices may fluctuate, but interest is still high.

Thanks for sharing. I'm shocked that it used to be as high as 30%. What a time to be alive!

darwinbulldog · #12 04-03-2023, 03:25 PM

Under. By 10-20%.

Touch'EmAll · #13 04-03-2023, 03:47 PM

I'll go $350.-360.k, a tad over. We are in a new world now, and the high rollers want their cards.

Off-topic, but look at your cards carefully when they come in the mail. I have just had 3 cards where they didn't pick up flaws. SGC 8 - was a divot on the front. SGC 7 - was an obvious surface abrasion. And a PSA 7 with rubber band mark indents on edge. Oh, my. How can these get thru PSA/SGC with high grades ?

ullmandds · #14 04-03-2023, 03:54 PM

under by 20%...imo.

Misunderestimated · #15 04-03-2023, 04:07 PM

I actually think your number makes sense -- but I'll go very slightly over maybe $350,000.

I note that there are about 25 PSA 9s and 3 PSA 10s -- both are high for this set. And it means that "better" ones are out there. Also, Koufax is one of the oldest living HOFers (Mays is now the oldest) ... I'm not sure how this factors into it but it certainly could. His career ended in 1966 -- a long long time ago. Mays' ended in 1973 (after Koufax was elected to the HOF)....Pretty sure there is no one alive who was elected before Koufax....

Without violating the OPs last paragraph I don't think that a card this high end can provide fair measure of the "health of the hobby" (whatever that means)... The hobby is not ultimately who "can say the highest number" (to quote Logan Roy out of context) on the highest end of a high end card....

Rhotchkiss · #16 04-04-2023, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The interest in a $350K card is about as relevant to the overall health of the hobby as the price of a custom mansion on the beach is to prices for tract homes 100 miles inland.

Adam, i disagree with this statement. Indeed, I think its very relevant and think this sale could serve as a canary in the coalmine for the broader asset class/industry.

Whoever is buying this card is either doing so purely as investment, is a super wealthy collector who we must assume has the financial cognizance to know if they are making a poor financial decision, or some degree of both. In other words, the bidders on a high-grade, high-profile, expensive card like this is, and know they are, making a financial decision when they decide to place a bid they hope wins the auction. This is not a T206 Wagner, BN Ruth, Just So Young or something super rare -- this is a full commodity card. I think the hammer price on high-end commodity cards are very relevant to values across the asset class/industry.

Leon · #17 04-04-2023, 10:21 AM

I am with Adam on this one. There is probably 1/2 of 1 percent of collectors on this forum, most likely less, that can afford a card like that. I am much more interested in T206 Red Cobbs and Goudey Ruth 144s, in medium conditions, as far as the health of the pre war market.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Adam, i disagree with this statement. Indeed, I think its very relevant and think this sale could serve as a canary in the coalmine for the broader hobby/industry.

Whoever is buying this card is either doing so purely as investment, is a super wealthy collector who we must assume has the financial cognizance to know if they are making a poor financial decision, or some degree of both. In other words, the bidders on a high-grade, high-profile, expensive card like this is, and know they are, making a financial decision when they decide to place a bid they hope wins the auction. This is not a T206 Wagner, BN Ruth, Just So Young or something super rare -- this is a full commodity card. I think the hammer price on high-end commodity cards are very relevant to values across the hobby/industry.

Flintboy · #18 04-04-2023, 11:03 AM

Looking at the REA scans, that card if resubmitted today would probably grade an 8 at best.

bnorth · #19 04-04-2023, 11:14 AM

I haven't taken selling serious in a very long time. When are the closing dates? I know years ago if the closing dates are close the one that finished first always sold for more on similar items.

raulus · #20 04-04-2023, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bnorth

I haven't taken selling serious in a very long time. When are the closing dates? I know years ago if the closing dates are close the one that finished first always sold for more on similar items.

I think that's long been the trend.

I've noticed over the last couple of years that it's flipped, probably mostly due to FOMO and a lot of emotional bidding. All the people who missed out on the first one swear a blood oath that they're going to absatively get the next one. So they go even more nuts than on the first one, and bid it up even higher.

Likely just a sign of how frothy the market has been over the last couple of years.

Exhibitman · #21 04-04-2023, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leon

I am with Adam on this one. There is probably 1/2 of 1 percent of collectors on this forum, maybe less, that can afford a card like that. I am much more interested in T206 Red Cobbs and Goudey Ruth 144s, in medium conditions, as far as the health of the pre war market.

See, great minds think alike...

I just don't buy the 'trickle down' view of card prices.

BobC · #22 04-04-2023, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leon

I am with Adam on this one. There is probably 1/2 of 1 percent of collectors on this forum, maybe less, that can afford a card like that. I am much more interested in T206 Red Cobbs and Goudey Ruth 144s, in medium conditions, as far as the health of the pre war market.

Leon, I'm with you and Adam as well, sorry Ryan. I do not disagree with what Ryan was saying, but I believe he's confusing the health of the "investment" market for cards, with the health of the actual "hobby" for cards. And those are realistically two entirely different things IMO.

As you noted, only a very extremely small percentage of members on Net54, let alone in the hobby community itself, would ever be able to afford to be paying that kind of money for any card/collection. I know I can't afford that kind of money, and am perfectly happy with the lower grade '55 Topps Koufax card(s) I have had for years. A Collector is happy to have a nice version of a card they want, and isn't necessarily worried about it being this or that grade. Would it be nice to have a NM 7 version of a card as opposed to say a VG-EX 4 version, well of course, but a Collector would likely be most happy just to have a nice version of that card, period. An Investor, on the other hand, isn't necessarily worried about having this or that particular card, just one that they think they can make a lot of money off of buying, holding, and then later reselling it for a profit.

The fact that card shows are making a comeback after the pandemic, attendance is up and great, the hobby is all over the internet and making a splash, seems to show the hobby is alive and doing well. As long as baseball is still around and followed and watched by so many people, I think the hobby itself will be fine, and there will always be Collectors keeping it alive and healthy.

Now as for the Investors, that may be a different story. If these high-priced card prices start tanking, and the Investors start getting out, I think that would actually be even better for the Collectors in the hobby as all of these much desired cards will start to become more affordable and available to the everyday, true Collectors. As soon as you start trying to tie and equate hobby prices to hobby health, you aren't really talking about a hobby anymore, you're talking about an investment industry choice.

And to stay on topic for the OP's question, I think under.

Republicaninmass · #23 04-04-2023, 02:32 PM

Yet the rising tide lifts all boats.

Honestly...

BobC · #24 04-04-2023, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Yet the rising tide lifts all boats.

Honestly...

Yes, but just because the tide goes out, it doesn't mean the boat has sunk either.

Rhotchkiss · #25 04-04-2023, 02:59 PM

Bob, all fair points and I edited the title of the thread to call it an asset class vs hobby. You and I seem to keep crossing streams on content of titles vs the post, but since I created both, I will admit I created the confusion.

My question relates to cards as investments/an asset class. And I believe this question is relevant to many on this board, even those who consider themselves collectors - these things have value, plain and simple, and people care about the value of things they own that have value.

So, to be clear, it’s my bad- I am looking at this card/sale as a marker for the health of cards as an asset class and asking whether people think it will go over/under an price point I established, and why.

trambo · #26 04-04-2023, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Adam, i disagree with this statement. Indeed, I think its very relevant and think this sale could serve as a canary in the coalmine for the broader hobby/industry.

Whoever is buying this card is either doing so purely as investment, is a super wealthy collector who we must assume has the financial cognizance to know if they are making a poor financial decision, or some degree of both. In other words, the bidders on a high-grade, high-profile, expensive card like this is, and know they are, making a financial decision when they decide to place a bid they hope wins the auction. This is not a T206 Wagner, BN Ruth, Just So Young or something super rare -- this is a full commodity card. I think the hammer price on high-end commodity cards are very relevant to values across the hobby/industry.

Agree w/you on this, Ryan but also believe there can be more than one market in this hobby. I'd imagine higher end, rarer stuff will always have the super wealthy chasing just like people chasing low to mid grade tobacco cards. I won't get into my opinions of that as it wasn't your original question.

Doing well over here! Currently on a 60 day vacation between things. Giving me a chance to thin the herd of doubles! Very much needed to do it!! Hope you're well, too!!

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