Real curious to see National reports

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

It will be fascinating to see how the reality stacks up with these pretty much consensus predictions. If the bubble has truly burst on modern, the room, including tables, should be full of 20 and 30 somethings desperately looking to dump as much as they can before the music stops altogether.

This is not in the least how inexperience in investing currently works. I expect little to no impact whatsoever on attendance, nor fire sales. We are still 12 to 24 months from visible impact of demand.

When the meme stocks crashed it was a continuous disbelief, much like many echo in these threads at time, that a rebound is always coming and to "buy the dip". People had been making so much, it was incomputable mentally that a drop could be real. They piled as much as they could borrow into dead ideas like GME and AMC, long after the short squeeze was over and compounded the losses they already had exponentially in order to regain on the losses they already accrued in a effort to flip the story.

The exact same thing is happening with the flip community as they share much of the same experience and lack of it. They are continuing to buy modern at the dip thinking the rebound is coming. They are shoring up vintage from notable drops by discussing it as a hedge while they wait for the modern boom to circle back. The same flippers are focused on the big names like Mantle, Aaron, etc and adding them in an attempt to stabilize like a stock to bond transition. They are dipping into prewar big names to have holds.

No true effect on the valuation or market can be actually calculated until the desperation slows and we are not close to that point as of yet. You need to be watching the modern boards and YouTube to have any grasp on the current trends. Any feedback on this National that proclaims the market is steady is no different than Disney telling me their newest reboot is a massive hit because of a strong opening weekend and ignoring that the second drops 80%.

We are not there...at all.

For an example this is how the desperate move. One big win, several years of dragging mud…and this is still 75% overvalue to logic.

[mrreality68]

Alot of the New Money from people that made money on NFT's, money coming in from Hedge Funds and the likes, Crypto Money is not there as much anymore.

The modern market was flooded with Raw Cards that became graded and added to the inventory and the Famous 1 of 1 refractors etc.

This is a correction in the market but it is still up in most Vintage over Pre-covid so those that were early collectors did well and others if they were strategic and bought right.

Sadly many may still be underwater and I just hope they stayed within their budgets and did not get burned

[packs]

I don't really think new money NFT or crypto people bought vintage baseball. Modern baseball if baseball at all, but I'm more inclined to believe these people were drawn to Pokemon cards and modern basketball before they ever considered buying a T205.

[Jewish-collector]

I'm not going to the National this year, but I'm curious to know if much vintage memorabilia in all sports will be on dealers' tables for sale.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Jewish-collector

I'm not going to the National this year, but I'm curious to know if much vintage memorabilia in all sports will be on dealers' tables for sale.

Seems to me people form emotional attachments to pieces of memorabilia and don't move them anywhere near as freely and easily as cards. I know I do.

[Yoda]

The current health of the stock market should help both buyers and sellers.

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Alot of the New Money from people that made money on NFT's, money coming in from Hedge Funds and the likes, Crypto Money is not there as much anymore.

The modern market was flooded with Raw Cards that became graded and added to the inventory and the Famous 1 of 1 refractors etc.

This is a correction in the market but it is still up in most Vintage over Pre-covid so those that were early collectors did well and others if they were strategic and bought right.

Sadly many may still be underwater and I just hope they stayed within their budgets and did not get burned

Crypto money IS there, it's just not here in sports card collectibles at the moment. Blackrock Bitcoin ETF, crypto gaming, the Bitcoin halving in 8 months - it's a 4 year cycle in crypto... just wait for '24-'26, the money coming back into cards will be another tidal wave - imho.

Can't wait to see the reports on the great vintage stuff coming out of Chicago though - exciting week every year!

[jbsports33]

Agree with what most of the first post and list, we are definitely are on a downward trend with modern, been noticing more this summer. Vintage is still strong enough, just not the prices and interest I did see a few years back. Hobby is still strong and hearing many dealers thinking of opening shops or already have. There are a lot more shows in the Northeast as well, so really who knows – still fun and rewarding at the same time - Jimmy

[Belfast1933]

For the longer term vintage collectors here, I'm curious what happened to vintage values when the junk card era bottomed out - did that create a drag downward for prewar and vintage overall also?

Or did vintage prices just hold flat for the most part while junk ere collectors moved out of the hobby?

[Exhibitman]

Well, everything I want is still expensive AF.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Well, everything I want is still expensive AF.

That comment, caused me to laugh out loud.

[Jewish-collector]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Well, everything I want is still expensive AF.

Adam, you gotta say WTF, right ?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Well, everything I want is still expensive AF.

My grail want list is all expensive AF …. But I find enough random low price stuff to keep me amused.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Any feedback on this National that proclaims the market is steady is no different than Disney telling me their newest reboot is a massive hit because of a strong opening weekend and ignoring that the second drops 80%. We are not there...at all.

Uh...OK, so you're saying the market for everything, including modern, is steady now but poised for a big drop in 12-24 months? Where are we not yet...at all, the big drop? And this National will be a strong one all around, then, including all the young flippers looking to buy as in the recent past?

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Uh...OK, so you're saying the market for everything, including modern, is steady now but poised for a big drop in 12-24 months? Where are we not yet...at all, the big drop? And this National will be a strong one all around, then, including all the young flippers looking to buy as in the recent past?

That’s not what I said at all.

I said that current prices are not an indicator that we are close to the end. I also don’t think that people will be dumping, nor would I think the lack of that shows much in either direction.

The “investors” are holding if they have any clue and will for a while. Anyone, unless they are needy from repayment from over borrowing, are going to sit. The vast majority of the new blood has little experience in the hobby and will basement hoard for awhile just like the prior junk wax boom. People know a mass dump of product will bring down the value more. If they needed cash infusion, they have already moved some and tried to recoup some.

If the market floods prices will drop rapidly, items will slowly come in but the actuality of what will move prices is slowing demand. The hype train is still pushing hard and the industry is going to do everything to keep that going. I expect strong sales in all honesty as the newer collectors have only the experience of huge prices and profit. The idea that this is the temporary drop that the youtubers are pushing is easily believable. This drop is looking like a great time to buy if you think that a big return is coming.

I think this could be a more successful National than last year and expect you may have a hard time getting good prices if you try to sell to dealers as quietly they likely see the risk too high to stockpile. That said, the collectors and consumers are a different animal. They will be spending.

I’ll wait until next year before I think demand will start to wane. If the big bounce back doesn’t come, that’s when the faith in buying low slows. It also should reflect in vintage as well as the flip crowd has been moving to the post war, and big five since last fall and keeping those values steady while they wait for the modern return.

Hey, it’s my opinion. You don’t have to agree…I am the only one who needs to.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by JustinD

That’s not what I said at all. I said that current prices are not an indicator that we are close to the end. I also don’t think that people will be dumping, nor would I think the lack of that shows much in either direction. The “investors” are holding if they have any clue and will for a while. Anyone, unless they are needy from repayment from over borrowing, are going to sit. The vast majority of the new blood has little experience in the hobby and will basement hoard for awhile just like the prior junk wax boom. People know a mass dump of product will bring down the value more. If they needed cash infusion, they have already moved some and tried to recoup some. If the market floods prices will drop rapidly, items will slowly come in but the actuality of what will move prices is slowing demand. The hype train is still pushing hard and the industry is going to do everything to keep that going. I expect strong sales in all honesty as the newer collectors have only the experience of huge prices and profit. The idea that this is the temporary drop that the youtubers are pushing is easily believable. This drop is looking like a great time to buy if you think that a big return is coming.
I think this could be a more successful National than last year and expect you may have a hard time getting good prices if you try to sell to dealers as quietly they likely see the risk too high to stockpile. That said, the collectors and consumers are a different animal. They will be spending. I’ll wait until next year before I think demand will start to wane. If the big bounce back doesn’t come, that’s when the faith in buying low slows. It also should reflect in vintage as well as the flip crowd has been moving to the post war, and big five since last fall and keeping those values steady while they wait for the modern return. Hey, it’s my opinion. You don’t have to agree…I am the only one who needs to.

I'm not trying to pick a fight with you, Justin, and I have never felt a need to agree with anybody I don't agree with. I just don't see much difference, if any, between what you have said at great length and what I said in summary.

[Snapolit1]

I agree with what was said above …. I don’t see the young hustler crowd moving into prewar. They are not into the history of the sport, but will still gravitate to the Elly de La Cruz, whoever is the hot card at the moment. They want flash and splash. They are not going all in on Eddie Plank or Walter Johnson. They will keep playing the modern game assuming it roars back.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I'm not trying to pick a fight with you, Justin, and I have never felt a need to agree with anybody I don't agree with. I just don't see much difference, if any, between what you have said at great length and what I said in summary.

No fight Hank and my apologies if it sounded that way. I was just discussing my personal thoughts on it.

[taul166]

Remember how "hot" Collectable (fractional ownership) was before and at the time of last year's National?

[Exhibitman]

Modern is volatile AF, just the nature of the beast. Always has been (Gregg Jeffries RCs, anyone?). The guys who focus there must enjoy grabbing a tiger by the tail. As was said, they don't have the experience of the past boom and bust cycles, so they just have to learn what happens as it happens. Us old farts are so jaded that we sometimes forget that this is new stuff to the newbs. We can warn all we like, and we can be right, but the kids won't listen to us any more than our own kids listen to us.

When it comes to modern card collectors and newbs, I just try to enjoy the schadenfreude moments as they come. They always do. The death spiral is inevitable, so I just watch the flippers flailing on the way down, then I buy what I want when it bottoms out. That's how I got most of my modern cards. Plucking yesterday's hot insert cards out of a dollar box, very satisfying.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by JustinD

No fight Hank and my apologies if it sounded that way. I was just discussing my personal thoughts on it.

No worries, Justin, and I do appreciate your very thoughtful analyses.