Super high end Mantle cards

Peter_Spaeth · #1 08-25-2023, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I don't know what percentage of people buying Mantle today saw him play, but I'll bet it is significantly higher than the percentage of Cobb buyers who saw him play. Let's say, for argument's sake, that it's 30% (as opposed to 0% or 1% for Cobb). As those 30% go, it will likely shift the demand/supply balance for his cards. It doesn't mean they will go to zero or even on par with Mays, but they will at least grow at a slower rate.

You are assuming your conclusion, that those 30 percent of people are buying Mantle because they saw him play and from that assumption concluding that demand will go down when that percentage drops. I think it won't. The demand for Mantle has steadily increased even though more and more buyers never saw him play. I see no reason that would change as we get farther and farther away from his career. He already has achieved Cobb like status.

jsfriedm · #2 08-25-2023, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You are assuming your conclusion, that those 30 percent of people are buying Mantle because they saw him play and that demand will go down when that percentage drops. I think it won't. The demand for Mantle has steadily increased even though more and more buyers never saw him play. I see no reason that would change as we get farther and farther away from his career. He already has achieved Cobb like status.

No, I am providing a reason for my conclusion. There is some non-zero percentage of people who buy Mantle cards today that saw him play, which is not true for Cobb or Ruth. Therefore, there is a chance that their disappearance will shift the demand/supply equation on his cards, a risk that doesn't exist with Cobb or Ruth.

Peter_Spaeth · #3 08-25-2023, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

No, I am providing a reason for my conclusion. There is some non-zero percentage of people who buy Mantle cards today that saw him play, which is not true for Cobb or Ruth. Therefore, there is a chance that their disappearance will shift the demand/supply equation on his cards, a risk that doesn't exist with Cobb or Ruth.

Then why does demand keep going up as that percentage goes down? If your thesis was correct prices should decline as we get further and further out from his career and the collector demographic naturally changes.

jsfriedm · #4 08-25-2023, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Then why does demand keep going up as that percentage goes down? If your thesis was correct prices should decline as we get further and further out from his career and the collector demographic naturally changes.

As I said, the price premium of his early cards versus Mays' has declined over the past several years. The assumption you are making is that the collectors who saw Mantle play will be replaced by those who didn't, which means that you are assuming that younger generations will gravitate to Mantle at a higher rate than to Ruth and Cobb (otherwise their cards should see proportionally more demand since they aren't losing playing days collectors).

Peter_Spaeth · #5 08-25-2023, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

As I said, the price premium of his early cards versus Mays' has declined over the past several years. The assumption you are making is that the collectors who saw Mantle play will be replaced by those who didn't, which means that you are assuming that younger generations will gravitate to Mantle at a higher rate than to Ruth and Cobb (otherwise their cards should see proportionally more demand since they aren't losing playing days collectors).

Yes, I do make that assumption, at least as to replacing old collectors. Not sure I fully follow the rate part. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Snapolit1 · #6 08-25-2023, 10:21 AM

Lists like this are a dime a dozen, but Mantle's cache in the sports fandom world at large clearly is not anywhere near on par with what it is in the collecting hobby.

http://www.espn.com/sportscentury/athletes.html

G1911 · #7 08-25-2023, 10:34 AM

I think the issue is more likely to be the increase in supply in the coming years as the boomers hit life expectancy and the Mantle generations collections flood the market. There are an absurd number of Topps Mantles. There is at least 1 1968 Mickey for every collector.

On the other hand, post war Mantle is the most talked about player in this pre war board. People get pissed off if you observe indisputable facts about the pumped up 52, such as it being factually a double print or the SGC 9.5 has a lot of staining and damage for a card allegedly better than mint. Nobody gets upset if you point Wagner is not that rare. Hobby love of Mantle is entrenched and deeply emotional for some reason.

etsmith · #8 08-25-2023, 10:43 AM

According to the list he's 9th among baseball players, so top 10. And lists like these are always very subjective.

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