The trend in Wagner cards

Rhotchkiss · #1 09-10-2023, 07:20 PM

There are a total of 62 M116 Blue Wagners on the combined PSA/SGC population report. That really is not a huge number, especially considering how many are in collections and not available for sale. By contrast, there are over 2,500, 1952 Topps Mantles on the combined PSA/SGC population report; and I am sure there are many more 52 Topps Mantles than blue M116 Wagners out there not reflected on the pop reports. It seems there are 2-6, 1952 Mantles in every auction.

According to VCP, the average price for a PSA 3, 1952 Topps Mantle is $66,500 (with sales ranging from $50k-$85k). While I acknowledge the 1952 Mantle dwarfs the blue M116 Wagner in importance/cache, is it so odd that a card of Honus Wagner, which is 40 years older and way more scarce, sells for $13k less than the average sales price of a like-graded 1952 Topps mantle?

I understand that does not answer your question, but it�s interesting to consider.

Lorewalker · #2 09-10-2023, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

There are a total of 62 M116 Blue Wagners on the combined PSA/SGC population report. That really is not a huge number, especially considering how many are in collections and not available for sale. By contrast, there are over 2,500, 1952 Topps Mantles on the combined PSA/SGC population report; and I am sure there are many more 52 Topps Mantles than blue M116 Wagners out there not reflected on the pop reports. It seems there are 2-6, 1952 Mantles in every auction.

According to VCP, the average price for a PSA 3, 1952 Topps Mantle is $66,500 (with sales ranging from $50k-$85k). While I acknowledge the 1952 Mantle dwarfs the blue M116 Wagner in importance/cache, is it so odd that a card of Honus Wagner, which is 40 years older and way more scarce, sells for $13k less than the average sales price of a like-graded 1952 Topps mantle?

I understand that does not answer your question, but it�s interesting to consider.

Way too many instances in the hobby were scarcity plays no role in the eventual value of a card. It always comes down to a demand for that card. Maybe this new price point is just that--establishing a new demand for the M116s and other Wagner portrait cards.

Rhotchkiss · #3 09-10-2023, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Way too many instances in the hobby were scarcity plays no role in the eventual value of a card. It always comes down to a demand for that card. Maybe this new price point is just that--establishing a new demand for the M116s and other Wagner portrait cards.

The demand is obviously there. My point is the supply is scarce. I bet there are more graded 1952 Topps Mantles than all graded cards of Wagner combined. Wagner is a popular and desirable player- maybe bc he is a first 5, maybe bc of the t206, maybe bc he is one of the all time greats, and likely all 3. It�s tough to own a Wagner and tougher to own a Wagner portrait. Add that the sharp rise in value leads to Fomo - get one now or they will be out of reach- and bam, a value explosion. Will it continue? No clue. But I am not looking to sell mine bc I want them. But if I had a better use for/needed the money, I would sell given the sharp increase.

Peter, your blue Wagner is likely worth $70k+ based on the last sale. Do you want $70k+ or a blue Wagner? They both sound pretty nice.

Peter_Spaeth · #4 09-10-2023, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The demand is obviously there. My point is the supply is scarce. I bet there are more graded 1952 Topps Mantles than all graded cards of Wagner combined. Wagner is a popular and desirable player- maybe bc he is a first 5, maybe bc of the t206, maybe bc he is one of the all time greats, and likely all 3. It’s tough to own a Wagner and tougher to own a Wagner portrait. Add that the sharp rise in value leads to Fomo - get one now or they will be out of reach- and bam, a value explosion. Will it continue? No clue. But I am not looking to sell mine bc I want them. But if I had a better use for/needed the money, I would sell given the sharp increase.

Peter, your blue Wagner is likely worth $70k+ based on the last sale. Do you want $70k+ or a blue Wagner? They both sound pretty nice.

Ryan when you put it that way, my initial reaction is I would rather have 70K+ in more Ruth cards, especially as I had the good fortune to also buy a pastel Wagner many years ago. Appreciate everyone's thoughts.

gabrinus · #5 09-10-2023, 08:02 PM

IMHO it's Trobba pumping the prices...Jerry

DeanH3 · #6 09-10-2023, 08:27 PM

The price surge looks to be affecting other issues as well. Seems like Wagner E-cards are experiencing healthy increases as well. I'm curious as what a really scarce issue like Nadja, Croft's Cocoa or Croft's Candy would fetch these days.

brunswickreeves · #7 09-10-2023, 10:16 PM

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year*. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate. Please let me know of needed edits or additions.

By this count as of last edit, there are 3,576 total graded Wagner cards (exceeds Mick�s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 451 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 12.6% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 345 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 9.6% of the total POP. Of these, there are 126 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 55 from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC, equating to 3.5% of the total POP.

This Excel summarizes graded cards by right facing portrait in color (blue highlight), right facing in non-color (gold highlight), left facing (green highlight) and batting/throwing/other (no highlight), as well as by grand total # and %.

*For most up-to-date POP report, please visit respective grading websites, which supersedes this Excel summary.

Brian · #8 09-10-2023, 07:44 PM

In the perfectly insane world of card collecting in 2023, the prices for the Wagner portraits make perfect sense to me. They have very low pops, and I have actually been surprised at the relative 'undervaluation' of both the M116 and E90-2. Very few of us can have THE card, so why not "settle" for the next best thing, which is, currently, somewhat obtainable (or used to be).

I am biased on this issue, but my prediction is that they will either stabilize or continue to climb. (Note: my name is not Warren Buffett, so caveat emptor).

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