Vintage card prices: Will 2023-2030 be like 2008-2015?

packs · #1 09-15-2023, 02:12 PM

I do also think there will be a deluge of collections hitting the markets at the semi-same time over the next 10 years as boomers likely die off or cash out, but I'm not sure it'll really matter in the end when it comes to cards from the 50s to 70s.

There are already a ton of them out there. I would say you could search for any mainstream Topps card from the 50s to 70s and find dozens of examples for sale at any given time across all platforms.

So while never really all that rare and never really all that hard to come by, I would think most of the collections that will come to market will feature cards that are already out there for sale and aren't necessarily hurt by abundance.

Lorewalker · #2 09-15-2023, 02:17 PM

7 years is an eternity, right now. It will fly by, no question, but not sure how anyone can think they can predict the projection of an entire industry in this very fast paced society in which we live in. I will be this bold and say that over the next 7 years cards will sell.

raulus · #3 09-15-2023, 05:21 PM

Just for fun, I recently read a bitcoin future price prediction report, which I think applies to our little world as well:

The price will go up.

Unless it goes down.

Or it might stay the same.

Naturally, they spent a few paragraphs on each case, discussing the future events and factors that might lead to that outcome. I assume these prognosticators must be paid like lawyers - by the word.

Joking aside, as humans, particularly when it comes to future predictions, current events are a huge mental anchor. Our baseline is to start with today, and then tweak a little up or down depending on whether our views are optimistic or pessimistic. It also happens to be a bit safer when it comes to trying to make a call. Nobody is going to tell you that you're crazy, because that's what everyone else is predicting.

And for the most part, predictions here are pretty well in line with that approach. We're only human, after all.

Personally, I've given up on the fool's errand of attempting to predict future prices. If I want it badly enough and I can afford it, then I buy it, even if I'm forced to pay more than I really want to. And if I can't afford it, then I wait patiently for a day that may never come.

Exhibitman · #4 09-15-2023, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

Personally, I've given up on the fool's errand of attempting to predict future prices.

Well, yes and no. I think anyone with enough experience in the field can handicap certain classes of cards as being good candidates for future appreciation, and others as not so much, and can buy accordingly. The fun is in trying to predict what out of favor classes might be worth buying now, or what items are still below the radar but have a shot at future gains.

Peter_Spaeth · #5 09-15-2023, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Well, yes and no. I think anyone with enough experience in the field can handicap certain classes of cards as being good candidates for future appreciation, and others as not so much, and can buy accordingly. The fun is in trying to predict what out of favor classes might be worth buying now, or what items are still below the radar but have a shot at future gains.

Yes, especially with hindsight.

Exhibitman · #6 09-19-2023, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yes, especially with hindsight.

Yeah, and that cuts both ways. My Festival of Bric-a-Brac (TM) portfolio has some bad bets in it too. I just look at those as tax losses to harvest in Q4 each year. But I keep making my bets because

I love to pick and I'm a greedy SOB.

raulus · #7 09-15-2023, 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Well, yes and no. I think anyone with enough experience in the field can handicap certain classes of cards as being good candidates for future appreciation, and others as not so much, and can buy accordingly. The fun is in trying to predict what out of favor classes might be worth buying now, or what items are still below the radar but have a shot at future gains.

Not to quibble too much here, but I suspect it makes a difference that you�re a lot more adventurous than the average collector when it comes to moving pretty freely between different eras, sports, and flavors (ie cards, memorabilia, pins, tickets, foreign stuff, etc.). With all of those options, there�s plenty of relatively underloved pieces to choose from in trying to guess what might catch fire in the coming years.

Maybe I�m just the boring collector who sticks to a single era, mostly collects a handful of specific players and well-known and well-loved issues, and doesn�t really venture outside of those parameters. So unless I�m going to make a big bet on junk era wax catching fire and tripling in price, there are a lot fewer variables that could drive my possible results in terms of stuff going nuts and taking off.

Exhibitman · #8 09-15-2023, 07:24 PM

Whereas I consider "focus" to be a dirty word. Picked up a NASCAR collection last week:

1962 and 1972 Richard Petty postcards

The 1972 is signed.

brunswickreeves · #9 09-15-2023, 08:12 PM

I�m no Economist, but holding all things constant, I�m hopeful the US economy continues to chug along creating wealth, unemployment remains relatively low, and the retiring baby boomer generation, new economy entrants, entrepreneurs and highly compensated employees pump money into the economy. Thus grow discretionary income for more charitable giving, as well as volume and price increasing collectibles purchase and enjoyment.

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