Hypothetical Question, could Ruth hit modern pitching

Snowman · #1 10-16-2023, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jingram058

Please, please, PLEASE...for the love of God...stop saying that the MAJOR LEAGUE pitching in the 1920s and 30s and 40s and 50s was 70/80 mph.

I break out in laughter when you write that insanely dumb stuff. You truly have no realization as to what you're saying, how incredibly dumb it sounds. I wasn't around, I don't know, but with a grand total of 16 teams in all the major leagues, and after hearing that Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Bob Feller, and on and on and on, when they bore down the ball made a certain "zzzzzz" noise as it went by. That's the heat, folks. That's what it sounds like. 70/80 mph? That insults my intelligence.

I think you're not quite understanding my claim, or perhaps I didn't state it clearly enough rather. I'm not saying that the best arms during that era were only capable of pitches in the 70-80 mph range. I'm claiming that the MEDIAN pitch speed that these hitters saw was likely in the high 70s, low 80s. It's really not that much of a stretch. Median pitch speeds mean half the balls they faced were above that speed, and half were below. This would include fastballs and off-speed pitches. As a point of comparison, even the median fastball when Ken Griffey Jr. was called up in 1989 was about 87 mph. That's 1989. So the median pitch speed (fastballs & off-speed pitches) was certainly lower than that. Likely low 80s. Saying that the median pitching speeds from the 1920s was likely in the high 70s isn't exactly a stretch and it's almost certainly true.

You seem more interested in what the top speeds that the best pitchers were capable of, which is a different question. I think there were likely several guys throwing mid to high 80s fastballs, with a few elite arms like Walter Johnson touching low 90s. But none of these guys were capable of 100 mph. Sorry, but that simply wasn't happening back then. 50 oz bats would not have been used by anyone if they were facing 100 mph pitching. It's simply not possible for anyone to turn on pitches that fast with lumber that heavy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jingram058

...As a form of exercise and stress relief, I regularly use the high school cage, 78 mph. Minor is 84, and major is 90. I can hit 78 even now at 66, and I'm just some schmo. I can occasionally foul one or two off in the minor cage. The safety monitors won't even allow me into major.

I think this is an interesting note you've made here. You can hit 78 mph pitching with some sort of relative consistency, but dial that up by just 6 mph and what previously had been a relatively easy, or at least achievable, task has now become so challenging that you can barely get a foul tip on the ball at those speeds. A few mph really does make all the difference in the world at the plate. This is precisely what this debate is all about. We know these hitters from the 1920s were hitting slower pitching. Hell, just from the time Griffey was called up in 1989 to what hitters are facing today on average, the median fastball has gone up by more than 6 mph. That's a remarkable jump. And the pitchers from the 1920s to 1989 were even a bigger jump than that. The median fastball today is without question AT LEAST 10-12 mph faster than it was in the 1920s. And a difference of 10-12 mph is, as you've noted, significant enough for someone capable of hitting 78 mph pitching to not even be allowed in the cage by the safety personnel at your local batting cage. That's how big of a difference the pitching was that these guys were facing in the 1920s vs what guys are facing today. It's a completely different game.

Could some of the best hitters from that era have adjusted to faster pitching and still been star players? Sure, absolutely. Some of them would. But some of them also wouldn't. Which players could and which players couldn't is anyone's guess. But I don't think it's as simple as just rank ordering the players and saying all the best ones would have still been great. It's not a linear transition. Some guys can just absolutely destroy 91 mph pitching, but they can't hit 100 mph. This is why top prospects fail so often. More so than in any other sport.

And since I like data, here's a plot of median fastball speeds from 2002 to 2019.
...

Carter08 · #2 10-16-2023, 05:43 PM

The current thinking in baseball seems to be roll through as many pitchers as you need in a game to make sure the team is always pitching well into the 90s. The increased torque required for that seems to result in increased injuries and surgeries. Personal observation but I would guess it�s supported somewhere.

I imagine many great hitters of the past would be able to catch up to the speed with training but in their day they most likely never had to think about facing a 100mph pitch, much less a constant barrage of them.

Snowman · #3 10-16-2023, 06:13 PM

I forgot to address the comments earlier about record breaking being more a function of technology and environmental factors than evolutionary factors. This is certainly true as well, though the degree to which this applies varies greatly by sport.

Here's an interesting TED talk on the topic

https://youtu.be/8COaMKbNrX0?si=Dzvz-03MvT086MUS

eliotdeutsch · #4 10-16-2023, 06:25 PM

Love this Ted talk on the subject. Just posted it and saw you had as well.

Peter_Spaeth · #5 10-16-2023, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carter08

The current thinking in baseball seems to be roll through as many pitchers as you need in a game to make sure the team is always pitching well into the 90s. The increased torque required for that seems to result in increased injuries and surgeries. Personal observation but I would guess it’s supported somewhere.

I imagine many great hitters of the past would be able to catch up to the speed with training but in their day they most likely never had to think about facing a 100mph pitch, much less a constant barrage of them.

Right. Even assuming some top pitchers from the 20s could hit the low 90s, there's no chance they were throwing consistently in the 90s for 9 innings every 4th day. I don't care how manly they were compared to today's wimps.

Pedro famously said to wake up the Bambino so he could drill him in the ass, but if he had thought about it he probably would have said so he could strike him out.

robw1959 · #6 10-16-2023, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Right. Even assuming some top pitchers from the 20s could hit the low 90s, there's no chance they were throwing consistently in the 90s for 9 innings every 4th day. I don't care how manly they were compared to today's wimps.

Pedro famously said to wake up the Bambino so he could drill him in the ass, but if he had thought about it he probably would have said so he could strike him out.

This is so silly. Pitchers in the 1960s and '70s were doing this REGULARLY throughout the course of any given season. Jim Palmer, for example, pitched 25 complete games one year. This year, the entire American League starting pitcher staff only combined for 22.

Oh, and Pedro would get the same wakeup call pitching to Ruth that Satchel Paige got when his fastball in 1935 was turned into a 450+ foot blast over the centerfield fence.

Peter_Spaeth · #7 10-16-2023, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robw1959

This is so silly. Pitchers in the 1960s and '70s were doing this REGULARLY throughout the course of any given season. Jim Palmer, for example, pitched 25 complete games one year. This year, the entire American League starting pitcher staff only combined for 22.

Oh, and Pedro would get the same wakeup call pitching to Ruth that Satchel Paige got when his fastball in 1935 was turned into a 450+ foot blast over the centerfield fence.

I doubt it. If Koufax was, look what it did to him.

robw1959 · #8 10-16-2023, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think you're not quite understanding my claim, or perhaps I didn't state it clearly enough rather. I'm not saying that the best arms during that era were only capable of pitches in the 70-80 mph range. I'm claiming that the MEDIAN pitch speed that these hitters saw was likely in the high 70s, low 80s. It's really not that much of a stretch. Median pitch speeds mean half the balls they faced were above that speed, and half were below. This would include fastballs and off-speed pitches. As a point of comparison, even the median fastball when Ken Griffey Jr. was called up in 1989 was about 87 mph. That's 1989. So the median pitch speed (fastballs & off-speed pitches) was certainly lower than that. Likely low 80s. Saying that the median pitching speeds from the 1920s was likely in the high 70s isn't exactly a stretch and it's almost certainly true.

You seem more interested in what the top speeds that the best pitchers were capable of, which is a different question. I think there were likely several guys throwing mid to high 80s fastballs, with a few elite arms like Walter Johnson touching low 90s. But none of these guys were capable of 100 mph. Sorry, but that simply wasn't happening back then. 50 oz bats would not have been used by anyone if they were facing 100 mph pitching. It's simply not possible for anyone to turn on pitches that fast with lumber that heavy.

I think this is an interesting note you've made here. You can hit 78 mph pitching with some sort of relative consistency, but dial that up by just 6 mph and what previously had been a relatively easy, or at least achievable, task has now become so challenging that you can barely get a foul tip on the ball at those speeds. A few mph really does make all the difference in the world at the plate. This is precisely what this debate is all about. We know these hitters from the 1920s were hitting slower pitching. Hell, just from the time Griffey was called up in 1989 to what hitters are facing today on average, the median fastball has gone up by more than 6 mph. That's a remarkable jump. And the pitchers from the 1920s to 1989 were even a bigger jump than that. The median fastball today is without question AT LEAST 10-12 mph faster than it was in the 1920s. And a difference of 10-12 mph is, as you've noted, significant enough for someone capable of hitting 78 mph pitching to not even be allowed in the cage by the safety personnel at your local batting cage. That's how big of a difference the pitching was that these guys were facing in the 1920s vs what guys are facing today. It's a completely different game.

Could some of the best hitters from that era have adjusted to faster pitching and still been star players? Sure, absolutely. Some of them would. But some of them also wouldn't. Which players could and which players couldn't is anyone's guess. But I don't think it's as simple as just rank ordering the players and saying all the best ones would have still been great. It's not a linear transition. Some guys can just absolutely destroy 91 mph pitching, but they can't hit 100 mph. This is why top prospects fail so often. More so than in any other sport.

And since I like data, here's a plot of median fastball speeds from 2002 to 2019.
...

Later in his career, Ruth, knowing he needed a timing edge against fastballs, switched to a much lighter bat and got even better homerun results than what he got with the big stick.

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