1952T Mantle price drops

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by G1911

Is this data wrong? Attendance seems to have receded over time. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...lb-since-2006/

Guess there a bunch of ways to measure these things.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...spike-30-years

https://www.wbsc.org/en/news/basebal...se-in-20-years

[DocScoot]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Guess there a bunch of ways to measure these things.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...spike-30-years

https://www.wbsc.org/en/news/basebal...se-in-20-years

Those are MLB propaganda articles bragging about record setting one-year increases relative to the pandemic years (which they don't mention). I take it you're not a data scientist in your day job?

And for the record, I wasn't predicting a drop in the card market, I was asking for folks' opinions on the extent to which overall baseball popularity (which is objectively on a downward trend when you take more than a one year view) is strongly coupled to the card market value. I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other on this question.

[Snapolit1]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybr...vertisers/amp/

No doubt more propaganda.

[DocScoot]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybr...vertisers/amp/

No doubt more propaganda.

My favorite quote from this article (typo is theirs, not mine) had to be “I was is unable to independently verify the totals as source data is not within the report.” :-) As a lifelong baseball fanatic, I do hope you are right and I am wrong, so honestly I’m routing for your side of this discussion! Makes me very sad to think baseball popularity is on the decline, and I’d be thrilled if the article you shared is correct. Though I have no clue (and this article doesn’t really clarify) how advertisers measure value, and if it really has anything to do with the actual popularity or engagement with the sport.

[Fred]

The price of a '52 Mantle in "8" grade dropping doesn't affect me because that card in that condition is so far out of my collecting budget stratosphere that it means nothing.

What would be interesting to see is if this trickles down to the lower grades. If 1s and 2s are impacted by similar percentage drops, then that would be an interesting correlation. In that case, my guess would be the entire card market is dropping back. As I always mention in these threads, I couldn't care less because it's card board and not part of an "investment" portfolio (to me).

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Fred

The price of a '52 Mantle in "8" grade dropping doesn't affect me because that card in that condition is so far out of my collecting budget stratosphere that it means nothing.

What would be interesting to see is if this trickles down to the lower grades. If 1s and 2s are impacted by similar percentage drops, then that would be an interesting correlation. In that case, my guess would be the entire card market is dropping back. As I always mention in these threads, I couldn't care less because it's card board and not part of an "investment" portfolio (to me).

The second screen in Ryan's post are PSA 2 numbers.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

The second screen in Ryan's post are PSA 2 numbers.

Phil - Thank you.

Second screen shot in post# 16

Quite the drop in a short period of time for PSA2 52T Mantles. I'm guessing some would like to believe that the cards sold earlier (higher $$) were just nicer examples of a "2" grade.

So, what's next?

Are Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, WoJos and Mattys dropping this much? Sorry, I don't follow these trends too closely.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Fred

So, what's next?

Are Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, WoJos and Mattys dropping this much? Sorry, I don't follow these trends too closely.

It depends. It seems to me that almost every “commodity card” of these players has seen a drop since the 2021. To me, a “commodity card” is something rather common and easy to obtain - like a common back t206. Let’s say cards that have over 200 graded examples. The thing about these players, however, is they have very few commodity cards. Aside from T206, T205, and 1933 Goudey, I don’t think these players are on many (if any) issues with over 200 graded. In my experience, these players in tougher/rarer issues are generally holding value or up, rather than down, recently.

Point is- there is real scarcity here that has not (yet) outstripped the demand. Plus, there is a certain type of buyer for these cards/players, and they are rarely flippers/Johnny-come-latelies, meaning they buy to hold and fewer examples come to market. There is relative safety in these players/cards. They are less liquid, and they may not move up (or down) as quickly. They are the tortoises of cards, and I like the tortoise- he ended up beating that speedy rabbit!

All that said, one issue with these players/types of cards is that the market may get easily flooded. In the past few months, about 4-6 really pretty 1917 Ruth’s came to auction. This is a super tough card - maybe 50 graded total. It’s too many at one time and they sold cheap, in my opinion (still large numbers). Same thing is currently happening with PWCC and all the rare back t206s. I expect Wagner prices will come in some as people see the crazy hammer prices on blue wagners and more and more hit the auction block. This will not cause a crater in prices and the phenomena will be temporary, but the problem with these cards/issues is that the market can be easily flooded by a mere 3-5 examples, making them a relative/temporary commodity card for what it is

[packs]

Ruth Goudeys may have dropped from an all time pandemic high but they're still at general all time highs when you consider the pre-pandemic market and what it still costs to add the card today.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Point is- there is real scarcity here that has not (yet) outstripped the demand. Plus, there is a certain type of buyer for these cards/players, and they are rarely flippers/Johnny-come-latelies, meaning they buy to hold and fewer examples come to market. There is relative safety in these players/cards. They are less liquid, and they may not move up (or down) as quickly. They are the tortoises of cards, and I like the tortoise- he ended up beating that speedy rabbit!

The buyers of those cards certainly aren't the "New Kid in Town"

In general though, I agree with the sentiment. There's a scarcity when it comes to certain cards. The Mantle, while very popular, is far from scarce, when you compare it to some of the premier pre-war issues of certain players. Yes it is "The" post-war card, but you'll never find a shortage of it.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

It depends. It seems to me that almost every “commodity card” of these players has seen a drop since the 2021. To me, a “commodity card” is something rather common and easy to obtain - like a common back t206. Let’s say cards that have over 200 graded examples.

I think of a commodity card as being any card that is effectively as good as cash. A card with both sufficient supply and demand. One that trades often enough that it is easy to comp and easy to predict the hammer price of the next sale.

To your other point about waves of similar cards hitting the market at the same time, this is something that the market doesn't seem to understand very well. Sure, keen observers recognize that it has some effect, but I think it brings about inefficiencies in the market that aren't well understood in general. For example, if you want to know whether a card has "hit the bottom" or not, you can get a pretty good idea by looking at the time series of the number of days between sales and plot it in a chart, then take the derivative of the slope of that curve and you can get a pretty good idea of when a card is in a bubble that is about to pop or if it's at it's floor by comparing that time series against what other cards' time series with similar pop counts look like, or by comparing it to what it otherwise looks like during "normal" times.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by DocScoot

And for the record, I wasn't predicting a drop in the card market, I was asking for folks' opinions on the extent to which overall baseball popularity (which is objectively on a downward trend when you take more than a one year view) is strongly coupled to the card market value. I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other on this question.

I don't think collectors necessarily feel the need to watch baseball so much as they appreciate it. Speaking for myself, I almost never watch MLB games anymore. I might catch an inning or two of a few playoff games here or there, but I haven't sat down to watch a full game in decades. I do watch highlights with some degree of regularity, and I do pay attention to player stats throughout the season, but that's about it. I simply don't have time to watch baseball games, and even if I did, I could find a thousand other things I'd rather be doing. However, I watch dozens of full NBA and NFL games every year. I even watch full soccer matches during the world cup. But my collection is probably ~60% baseball and ~40% basketball, with less than 1% other sports. There's just something nostalgic about baseball cards that other sports don't offer. I'll continue to collect them even if I never watch another game of baseball on TV in my entire life (a fairly high likelihood).

[DocScoot]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I don't think collectors necessarily feel the need to watch baseball so much as they appreciate it. Speaking for myself, I almost never watch MLB games anymore. I might catch an inning or two of a few playoff games here or there, but I haven't sat down to watch a full game in decades. I do watch highlights with some degree of regularity, and I do pay attention to player stats throughout the season, but that's about it. I simply don't have time to watch baseball games, and even if I did, I could find a thousand other things I'd rather be doing. However, I watch dozens of full NBA and NFL games every year. I even watch full soccer matches during the world cup. But my collection is probably ~60% baseball and ~40% basketball, with less than 1% other sports. There's just something nostalgic about baseball cards that other sports don't offer. I'll continue to collect them even if I never watch another game of baseball on TV in my entire life (a fairly high likelihood).

Thanks for this input! I believe my situation is similar to what you describe, for me the love of the game has become more about the history and the nostalgia than it is about continuing to watch every game. Though I did watch quite a bit more this past season, and probably was part of the increase in popularity this past season referred to by the previous poster (pitch clock change, crazy buzz around Ohtani, and several other factors also had a lot to do with that bump I'd assume, will be interesting to see if it continues). But I still worry that you and I are holdovers from perhaps having had parents and grandparents who loved, and did watch baseball more than any other sport. I wonder if this nostalgia will still be there for our kids and grandkids. I very much hope it is, otherwise my collectibles will just go to waste

[Exhibitman]

Please, let’s not over analyze this. I don’t care about the World Series if my teams aren’t playing. The two in there are not known for their national fan bases. It’s a who cares series everywhere except Dallas and Phoenix. Punch in the Yankees or Dodgers or Cubs or Red Sox instead and viewership will go right up.

[DocScoot]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Please, let’s not over analyze this. I don’t care about the World Series if my teams aren’t playing. The two in there are not known for their national fan bases. It’s a who cares series everywhere except Dallas and Phoenix. Punch in the Yankees or Dodgers or Cubs or Red Sox instead and viewership will go right up.

The point I'm trying to make is not about single year fluctuations due to any number of specific factors (yes it's not at all surprising viewership is down for THIS particular WS given the teams). I'm referring to very pronounced decades-long trends in overall popularity, and wondering if my (middle-aged) generation's nostalgic love for this sport will go the way of the dinosaurs, or somehow be sustained by folks who collect without actually engaging with the sport more directly. I think many of you are missing the forest for the trees on this one, but that will be it for me, didn't mean to hijack the thread!

[Seven]

While I do think the Mantle rookie was inflated by the Covid boom, and did expect some regression, I don't think it's going to go down much more. Sure times are uncertain, between the economy, and the conflicts going on overseas, but I think this is pretty much all we see in terms of price drops. I could be wrong.

His 1952 Topps issue, is certainly not going back to pre-covid prices. Would I be surprised if one graded a PSA 1 sells for a touch more than 20K? No. But I think the days of getting one for under 15K are long gone.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by DocScoot

The point I'm trying to make is not about single year fluctuations due to any number of specific factors (yes it's not at all surprising viewership is down for THIS particular WS given the teams). I'm referring to very pronounced decades-long trends in overall popularity, and wondering if my (middle-aged) generation's nostalgic love for this sport will go the way of the dinosaurs, or somehow be sustained by folks who collect without actually engaging with the sport more directly. I think many of you are missing the forest for the trees on this one, but that will be it for me, didn't mean to hijack the thread!

I appreciate that but I do not think that current sports fandom closely correlates with collecting. I don't like most sports as a spectator, but I definitely enjoy collecting cards from those sports. For collectors like me, collecting in and of itself is an end, not an expression of fandom. I mean, I never saw Babe Ruth play but I sure appreciate his cards.