1952T Mantle price drops

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think of a commodity card as being any card that is effectively as good as cash. A card with both sufficient supply and demand. One that trades often enough that it is easy to comp and easy to predict the hammer price of the next sale.

To your other point about waves of similar cards hitting the market at the same time, this is something that the market doesn't seem to understand very well. Sure, keen observers recognize that it has some effect, but I think it brings about inefficiencies in the market that aren't well understood in general. For example, if you want to know whether a card has "hit the bottom" or not, you can get a pretty good idea by looking at the time series of the number of days between sales and plot it in a chart, then take the derivative of the slope of that curve and you can get a pretty good idea of when a card is in a bubble that is about to pop or if it's at it's floor by comparing that time series against what other cards' time series with similar pop counts look like, or by comparing it to what it otherwise looks like during "normal" times.

How is this derived when there isn’t a large enough sample size to warrant statistical significance? M101-2 Sporting News Supplements come to mind.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

How is this derived when there isn’t a large enough sample size to warrant statistical significance? M101-2 Sporting News Supplements come to mind.

It wouldn't really help much with cards that only sell every couple of years or so. For something like that, I would find proxy cards and extrapolate.

[atx840]

In May2021 I sold my fathers Mantle that he pulled from a pack as a kid. It was our prize possession and what got me into collecting. When I was 9-12 he would take me on road trips down to the US (we live in Canada) and we would go card hunting. We eventually put together the 1952 set and when I first started to collect vintage, and those trips are some of my favourite memories of my father.

The prices went up so drastically that I figured it was time to let it go. I was able to get closer to 80k USD. It was more money than he had ever seen at one time and it was a wonderful moment handing him that cheque (it was unexpected as he had given me the card many years prior). For him it was a life changing amount, with the memories and being able to do that for him means way more to me than the cardboard...

But dang it was pretty.



Here is VCP for PSA 3s.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by atx840

In May2021 I sold my fathers Mantle that he pulled from a pack as a kid. It was our prize possession and what got me into collecting. When I was 9-12 he would take me on road trips down to the US (we live in Canada) and we would go card hunting. We eventually put together the 1952 set and when I first started to collect vintage, and those trips are some of my favourite memories of my father.

The prices went up so drastically that I figured it was time to let it go. I was able to get closer to 80k USD. It was more money than he had ever seen at one time and it was a wonderful moment handing him that cheque (it was unexpected as he had given me the card many years prior). For him it was a life changing amount, with the memories and being able to do that for him means way more to me than the cardboard...

But dang it was pretty.



Here is VCP for PSA 3s.

That is an amazing card and even better story. Thank you for sharing.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Great story, Chris. Glad it worked out for your dad that way. Who says you can’t time the market? Can’t do it any better than that, the Lord was certainly with you at that time.

[Jdoggs]

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[Jdoggs]

Originally Posted by atx840

In May2021 I sold my fathers Mantle that he pulled from a pack as a kid. It was our prize possession and what got me into collecting. When I was 9-12 he would take me on road trips down to the US (we live in Canada) and we would go card hunting. We eventually put together the 1952 set and when I first started to collect vintage, and those trips are some of my favourite memories of my father.

The prices went up so drastically that I figured it was time to let it go. I was able to get closer to 80k USD. It was more money than he had ever seen at one time and it was a wonderful moment handing him that cheque (it was unexpected as he had given me the card many years prior). For him it was a life changing amount, with the memories and being able to do that for him means way more to me than the cardboard...

But dang it was pretty.



Here is VCP for PSA 3s.

Nice eye appeal on the mantle. Surface blue colors stand out.