Same SGC 7 Mantle Sold 4 times in 15 months

[BobbyStrawberry]

Lots of hot potato going around in this hobby it seems. Spend half a million bucks on a piece of cardboard if you want, but don't be surprised if it's worth way less than that in a short while.

[JimC]

Or, buy 500K worth of cards in 2017 and sell them for 1.5M in 2022.

[Casey2296]

I like your health of the hobby posts Ryan, very informative.
I'd be curious to see the numbers on a 14CJ Cobb leading up to the ones coming to market in LOTG, Heritage, and I think REA.

[Fred]

What truly sucks here is if there are false reports for final sale prices. Yes, call me naive.

It's certainly unethical to report false sales prices, but is it illegal?

Is there a difference between reporting false sales prices vs false auction prices? Or is it basically the same. To me, there's a difference.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Why not? Went on for months, even years, with Patrick Mahomes cards, NBA RPA’s, etc.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Throw together a ton of money, a high percentage of scumbags with no ethics, and essentially no deterrence. This is what you get. Welcome to the "hobby."

[bcbgcbrcb]

Maybe we need to establish some deterrence. How about starting to put together a case against those known to be involved and look to start putting people away similar to shill bidding that went on at AH’s over the years. I bet the next go around, these unscrupulous individuals will think twice or even three times before acting to artificially inflate market prices.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Throw together a ton of money, a high percentage of scumbags with no ethics, and essentially no deterrence. This is what you get. Welcome to the "hobby."

I've been in the hobby since the early 80s and market manipulation is something I just consider part of the hobby.

I know there's many here that have been part of the hobby for prior decades, but "market makers" making/manipulating the market has been nothing but a fact of life for me my entire time in the hobby.

The artificial pumping of cards, the purposely withholding cards from the market to create artificial rarity (70s/80s minor league sets come to mind), and straight up price fixing by the majors (and using monthly Beckett guides to codify the fix) are things that have always been normal in my world.

I imagine many hobbies are like this, but my entire hobby experience has been a noticeable mix of great people and terrible people, some of those people playing both sides of great/terrible depending on the moment.

I still like my pictures of baseball dudes, though.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Fred

What truly sucks here is if there are false reports for final sale prices. Yes, call me naive.

It's certainly unethical to report false sales prices, but is it illegal?

Is there a difference between reporting false sales prices vs false auction prices? Or is it basically the same. To me, there's a difference.

It’s been the Wild West for years.

I know that if a bidder doesn’t play in auction, that sale price is still listed.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

It’s been the Wild West for years.

I know that if a bidder doesn’t play in auction, that sale price is still listed.

Not on PWCC. They only list sales that get paid for.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Not on PWCC. They only list sales that get paid for.

How do you know?

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I'd be curious to see the numbers on a 14CJ Cobb leading up to the ones coming to market in LOTG, Heritage, and I think REA.

Phil, here are VCP results for the 1914 CJ Cobb in a PSA 4. Aside from the last sale, it has been a steady increase over time (I have also included a pick of the price graph). The very pretty PSA 4 example in LOTG is currently at $36k with BP with 10 days to go.

Some things to note about these results: (1) they are ALL auctions, which I personally view as more legit/reliable that BIN, (2) you can’t see from the picture, but other than the last sale and a 2017 sale (both Probstein - EBay), every single sale from auction houses, which I feel are more legit/reliable than Ebay, and (3) the picture shows 11 sales over a 13 year period - less than 1/year and only twice was the same card sold within 2 years of its last sale (the final Probstein sale is one of them).

Based on all this, I view these comps as legit and I see a healthy and steady trend of increased value. This is the exact type of card I like to collect/invest in - not too common, very desirable (player, issue, image), and steady and verifiable history of value increase. I expect the LOTG Cobb will finish above the 2022 comp.

Regarding that 2022 comp and the fact that it sold for $9k less than the prior sale - it’s the same exact card that was sold in REA for $58k a year before. I think REA is a better venue to sell this card, it was just sold, and the market may have topped from its 2021 high when sold by REA. The fact that it sold for less, in an eBay auction, also indicates to me that the Probstein auction was legit and without shilling

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Phil, here are VCP results for the 1914 CJ Cobb in a PSA 4. Aside from the last sale, it has been a steady increase over time (I have also included a pick of the price graph). The very pretty PSA 4 example in LOTG is currently at $36k with BP with 10 days to go.

Some things to note about these results: (1) they are ALL auctions, which I personally view as more legit/reliable that BIN, (2) you can’t see from the picture, but other than the last sale and a 2017 sale (both Probstein - EBay), every single sale from auction houses, which I feel are more legit/reliable than Ebay, and (3) the picture shows 11 sales over a 13 year period - less than 1/year and only twice was the same card sold within 2 years of its last sale (the final Probstein sale is one of them).

Based on all this, I view these comps as legit and I see a healthy and steady trend of increased value. This is the exact type of card I like to collect/invest in - not too common, very desirable (player, issue, image), and steady and verifiable history of value increase. I expect the LOTG Cobb will finish above the 2022 comp.

Regarding that 2022 comp and the fact that it sold for $9k less than the prior sale - it’s the same exact card that was sold in REA for $58k a year before. I think REA is a better venue to sell this card, it was just sold, and the market may have topped from its 2021 high when sold by REA. The fact that it sold for less, in an eBay auction, also indicates to me that the Probstein auction was legit and without shilling

Thanks for the breakdown Ryan, I also see this card as a health of the hobby indicator with all the right combinations. Fun to own and a good investment at the same time.
I think the LOTG example has a chance to beat the 2021 REA comp.

[Kidnapped18]

The 12 '14 CJ Cobb PSA 4s broken down further:

#04792514 sold for
$11,042.00 SCP 08/11/13
$13,568.38 Goodwin 09/26/14
No documented sale since then

#09171488 sold for
$31,200.00 REA 12/08/19
$42,000.00 REA 08/16/20
Currently in a collector's Registry

#11178344 sold for
$7,467.00 Mile High 05/19/11
No documented sale since then

#11775525 Current LOTG Cobb
No documented sales

#19507408 sold for
$25,223.00 eBay/Probstein 05/21/17

#27617910
No documented sales

#30920736
No documented sales

#30920737 sold for
$58,800.00 REA 07/26/21
$49,768.00 eBay/Probstein 11/01/22

#40404026 sold for
$5,936.00 Legendary 02/23/05
$36,000.00 REA 10/28/18

#45032928 sold for
$53,270.00 Collect 11/14/19
$50,400.00 Goldin 09/21/20

#50077795 sold for
$17,925.00 Heritage 11/05/14
No documented sale since then
Currently in a collector's Registry

Have not located the 12th PSA 4 Cobb yet

I believe I had $55,000 as the over/under on the November LOTG Cobb in a separate thread/post

[Peter_Spaeth]

#04792514 sold for
$11,042.00 SCP 08/11/13
$13,568.38 Goodwin 09/26/14
No documented sale since then

I acquired this in a trade at essentially the same value. It hasn't gone anywhere.

[Casey2296]

Nice Cobby Peter!.

[Kidnapped18]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

#04792514 sold for
$11,042.00 SCP 08/11/13
$13,568.38 Goodwin 09/26/14
No documented sale since then

I acquired this in a trade at essentially the same value. It hasn't gone anywhere.

Great card Peter!