Collectibles Markets vs Economy - Why does it have to be this way?

Exhibitman · #1 11-14-2023, 08:33 AM

OP: Wrong! The explanation is simple: interest rates and market increases. Why would I speculate on stuff like cards with my investment money when the market already had its bull run and the Fed has kindly raised rates to the point where I can park my card money at 5% and wait for the capitulation sale by desperate people who went all in on cards at sky high prices and now are panicking. There’s probably more fluff to punch out of the postwar market. Vintage not so much given the relative scarcity of many sets.

Lots of money is sitting on the sidelines waiting.

Gorditadogg · #2 11-14-2023, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

OP: Wrong! The explanation is simple: interest rates and market increases. Why would I speculate on stuff like cards with my investment money when the market already had its bull run and the Fed has kindly raised rates to the point where I can park my card money at 5% and wait for the capitulation sale by desperate people who went all in on cards at sky high prices and now are panicking. There�s probably more fluff to punch out of the postwar market. Vintage not so much given the relative scarcity of many sets.

Lots of money is sitting on the sidelines waiting.

True. Why would anybody speculate with investment money anyway.

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raulus · #3 11-14-2023, 08:56 AM

For the OP, I think your starting point is off when it comes to your analysis of price increases, particularly on cardboard.

Compared to 2019, most vintage baseball cardboard (ie the stuff most of us collect) is up at least 100%, and in some cases more like 200-300% or more. Cardboard price increases for vintage baseball over the last 3-4 years are sooooooooo much greater than inflation on everything else. And it�s not even close.

To respond to your question about why it has to be this way, while economists love to debate what drives inflation, I�m a big believer in M2 - when the supply of money goes up without a corresponding shift in the number of available goods, then prices will rise. And to avoid politics behind why M2 increased, I�ll leave it at that.

Snowman · #4 11-14-2023, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

To respond to your question about why it has to be this way, while economists love to debate what drives inflation, I�m a big believer in M2 - when the supply of money goes up without a corresponding shift in the number of available goods, then prices will rise. And to avoid politics behind why M2 increased, I�ll leave it at that.

I'm with you on that. M2 is a manipulable inflationary pressure and a leading indicator. It certainly had a significant effect on this hobby. More than most people realize. The boom wasn't only because people were stuck inside. Although the causes for its increases are multi faceted. Not being able to travel or go out and blow our money had a lot to do with it too. It wasn't entirely the result of policy decisions, though they certainly contributed significantly.

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