1921 Herpolsheimers graded w/o mark

[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by G1911

I think we’ve learned survival rates for pre-war cards are incredibly low, I suspect well under 1% from the datasets. For example, using the printers record books and court testimony I have accounted for a minimum of 21,000,000 T225 series 1 cards printed. 25 subjects of equal printing = 840,000 of each produced, at least. I’d be surprised if there’s even 2,500 of each still around today. I’d project about 1 in 500 made it to 2023 for these. I’d think the 1920’s stuff wouldn’t be a lot better off, maybe a little.

I think 1914 Cracker Jacks say 15 million were made and I think of those as difficult to find.

I was guessing 100 sets of 1921 Herpolsheimer because I thought they would hope to sell a suit a day for that Summer. It could be much higher like 500.

[autograf]

At this point, we are feeding the troll. Thanks again to Steve. Hasta la vista.......

[CW]

Brian, is this all just a ruse to prevent other bidders from bidding against you?

[RCMcKenzie]

I'm talking with Greg about 1921 Herpolsheimers card populations. BrianVH's theory has been debunked. I don't consider discussing this obscure set feeding a troll.

[notfast]

Well now I’m going to go bid on one of two of these

[Brian Van Horn]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I'm talking with Greg about 1921 Herpolsheimers card populations. BrianVH's theory has been debunked. I don't consider discussing this obscure set feeding a troll.

LOL!

Under the following logic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyp9fh-u4w8

[G1911]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I think 1914 Cracker Jacks say 15 million were made and I think of those as difficult to find.

I was guessing 100 sets of 1921 Herpolsheimer because I thought they would hope to sell a suit a day for that Summer. It could be much higher like 500.

I have no idea on how many Herpolsheimer sets would have been made, 100, 500, 1,0000.

Part of the problem is that the quantity known today is usually impossible to know outside of the sets so rare the hobby keeps perfect track of them; even if we had all production data for everything we'd be missing another of the 2 figures for most sets. And what the hobby knows and tracks is different from what survives as we keep finding cards that have not previously hit the market or hobby before (usually they are just T206's or something and not that exciting, but new to the hobby).

The surviving data on the T cards suggests to me a survival rate of somewhere between .1 and .4%. But even assuming this is all correct and my deductions perfect, it doesn't mean other card types survive at the same rate. Cracker Jacks could be vastly different because they were issued in a product more for kids, an audience to keep the cards, got their hands on or less because of the crappy thin stock. The 1914's mention the 15,000,000 figure but it's not quite clear that is the entirety of the print run. Other cards mention 10,000,000 as the print run, so it may have been a made-up claim to sound important in the first place. 15,000,000 would be 104,166.67 of each card printed. There's not more than, I don't know, 300-400 or so of each one today? That would put it in similar survival range.

With how Herpolsheimers were distributed, evidently entirely for kids, I would guess their survival rate would be a bit higher. For very rare sets though the luck factor of a stash surviving is far more significant.

[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by G1911

I have no idea on how many Herpolsheimer sets would have been made, 100, 500, 1,0000.

Part of the problem is that the quantity known today is usually impossible to know outside of the sets so rare the hobby keeps perfect track of them; even if we had all production data for everything we'd be missing another of the 2 figures for most sets. And what the hobby knows and tracks is different from what survives as we keep finding cards that have not previously hit the market or hobby before (usually they are just T206's or something and not that exciting, but new to the hobby).

The surviving data on the T cards suggests to me a survival rate of somewhere between .1 and .4%. But even assuming this is all correct and my deductions perfect, it doesn't mean other card types survive at the same rate. Cracker Jacks could be vastly different because they were issued in a product more for kids, an audience to keep the cards, got their hands on or less because of the crappy thin stock. The 1914's mention the 15,000,000 figure but it's not quite clear that is the entirety of the print run. Other cards mention 10,000,000 as the print run, so it may have been a made-up claim to sound important in the first place. 15,000,000 would be 104,166.67 of each card printed. There's not more than, I don't know, 300-400 or so of each one today? That would put it in similar survival range.

With how Herpolsheimers were distributed, evidently entirely for kids, I would guess their survival rate would be a bit higher. For very rare sets though the luck factor of a stash surviving is far more significant.

On the Herpolsheimer's, I think the ad that SteveD found convinces me that they gave them out with the suits, and these were circulated in Grand Rapids in 1921, but there may not be any more left to be found.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

On the Herpolsheimer's, I think the ad that SteveD found convinces me that they gave them out with the suits, and these were circulated in Grand Rapids in 1921, but there may not be any more left to be found.

Yes; I'm addressing the quantity though. I am not disputing the ads in any way, shape or form.

[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by G1911

Yes; I'm addressing the quantity though. I am not disputing the ads in any way, shape or form.

I agree with what you are saying on populations and adding my opinion that this small town department store probably only ordered a 1000 or far fewer sets to give away, and it's surprising that any cards with this back survived at all. Before I saw the ad, I assumed they were uncirculated and kept by the staff.