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Where is the market?...is a "crash" coming - Net54baseball.com Forums
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  #1  
Old 12-04-2023, 11:15 AM
oldschool73 oldschool73 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by butchie_t View Post
The simple point is this. You are the latest with one of countless posts, asking the same question. How or what is the market doing and is it gonna crash? or many, many, variations therein.

No one here can predict this at all. Everyone has pretty much the same market information that everyone else has. So the questions and the answers are all the same. dunno.

It is just tiresome to answer a question that never has an answer to it, over and over again.

Cheers,

Butch Turner.
Then why even read/answer the thread?..just move on.
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  #2  
Old 12-04-2023, 11:17 AM
raulus raulus is offline
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Originally Posted by oldschool73 View Post
Then why even read/answer the thread?..just move on.
It's like a train wreck. We can't not watch!

Plus we all want our part in the conversation, so not responding is not really a viable option.

So instead, we get to debate whether the whole premise of the debate is worthy of debate.

And complain, of course. Plus complain about the complaining.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left:

1968 American Oil left side
1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel

Last edited by raulus; 12-04-2023 at 11:18 AM.
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  #3  
Old 12-04-2023, 12:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raulus View Post
It's like a train wreck. We can't not watch!

Plus we all want our part in the conversation, so not responding is not really a viable option.

So instead, we get to debate whether the whole premise of the debate is worthy of debate.

And complain, of course. Plus complain about the complaining.
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  #4  
Old 12-04-2023, 11:23 AM
butchie_t butchie_t is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldschool73 View Post
Then why even read/answer the thread?..just move on.
Better yet, don't ask a question that will never have an answer and post it on a board for all to answer.

Because you will get an answer, just not an answer to an unanswerable question.

Butch Turner
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U.S. Grant, July 1, 1885

Completed: 1969 - 2000 Topps Baseball Sets and Traded Sets.

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I collect Topps baseball variations -- I can quit anytime I want to.....I DON'T WANT TO.
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  #5  
Old 12-04-2023, 11:31 AM
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Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is offline
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A crash is definitely coming. I am 100 percent certain. My stars, Ouija board, palm reading, tea leaves, and tarot cards are all in perfect alignment. My local gypsy concurs as well.
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Four phrases I nave coined that sum up today's hobby:
No consequences.
Stuff trumps all.
The flip is the commoodity.
Animal Farm grading.

Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 12-04-2023 at 11:32 AM.
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  #6  
Old 12-04-2023, 11:44 AM
packs packs is offline
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If thinking about your cards futures is too much, I am offering my help in taking them off your hands so you can clear your mind. I will pay you only what I want to pay, seeing as thinking about their price is giving you such anxiety.

This is my gift to you.

Last edited by packs; 12-04-2023 at 11:44 AM.
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  #7  
Old 12-04-2023, 11:48 AM
ejharrington ejharrington is offline
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I see no evidence at all that there is a bear market in anything that I collect. To the contrary, prices keep going up.
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  #8  
Old 12-04-2023, 12:14 PM
raulus raulus is offline
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Originally Posted by ejharrington View Post
I see no evidence at all that there is a bear market in anything that I collect. To the contrary, prices keep going up.
It certainly feels like the go-go days are still running on everything I want for my collection. Witness the solid bidding war I got into last night (and lost) on the PSA 9 Mays 1954 Stahl Meyer. I finally dropped out at $93k. (link: https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=162374)

On the other hand, the PSA 7 Mantle that sold last night went for $246K, here:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=160751

It looks like the exact same card went for $336K about 12 months ago:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=125688

So a drop of $90K over the last 12 months. Good for a ~27% decline. We can debate whether that's a crash, a correction, or just someone overpaid in December 2022. But for some things the prices seem to be coming down.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left:

1968 American Oil left side
1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel
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  #9  
Old 12-04-2023, 03:04 PM
bbcard1 bbcard1 is offline
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I could have gotten better deals on two of the three most expensive cards I bought this year by waiting...1953T Robinson, 1954 T Kaline, but probably not the 1948 L Musial. But I don't really feel bad about any of the purchases. All cards I had wanted for a while and now I have them.

Last edited by bbcard1; 12-04-2023 at 03:05 PM.
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  #10  
Old 12-04-2023, 03:13 PM
Cory Cory is offline
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Default Index for vintage sports cards

From PWCC. Just came across this thought it was interesting -

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/mark...&direction=asc

Had been hoping that there was a T206 500 index, or something similar, or even thought of creating one to just get an idea of what prices are doing/have done. This is broader, but it does have a handful of t206 cards included in the index.
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  #11  
Old 12-04-2023, 03:19 PM
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Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is offline
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No index started by Brent has ever gone down. Good to see we're WAY up since the pandemic peak if I am reading it right. To infinity and beyond!!
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Four phrases I nave coined that sum up today's hobby:
No consequences.
Stuff trumps all.
The flip is the commoodity.
Animal Farm grading.

Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 12-04-2023 at 03:21 PM.
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  #12  
Old 12-04-2023, 03:24 PM
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todeen todeen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bnorth View Post
Just like the doomsday preppers say "the crash is coming". Get prepared now by selling all your cards and buying gold and silver the currency of the future. I have been predicting this crash for decades and someday I will be correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Republicaninmass View Post
But WHAT will they accept as tolls on the roads? I don't That was ever discussed
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Right, as was posted here in recent memory, silver we be useful to pay gangs of farmers who take over the roads.
Quote:
Originally Posted by G1911 View Post
Well I learned the roads will be manned by Indians who accept silver for passage in the water cooler section. Educational thread that was!
Quote:
Originally Posted by butchie_t View Post
And someone on the way to Canada would inevitably ask you what the futures of silver looked like. chortle.
I'm glad I could teach you all something. We all have our different conspiracies we hold to. I still believe that economic/political uncertainty lingers. Another Trump presidency would make 50% of the country go absolutely bonkers. While I am rooting for Nikki Haley, The Don is running laps around all the other competitors for GOP candidate.

Also, to answer the OP: It's hard to debate a downturn in cards for modern between November and February, which generally are the doldrums. Come March, modern cards will warm up again and people will forget the winter blues.
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  #13  
Old 12-04-2023, 03:34 PM
griffon512 griffon512 is offline
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Default pricing trends

Conclusions on pricing trends can't be drawn from one auction, but the results last night reinforce that grade continues to be less and less relevant over time to pricing. Premiums for strong centering/color/registration and discounts for poor centering/color/registration are increasing. There is scarcity of the former for many cards, even if the pop is high.

Some comparisons:
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161130

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161129

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=164229

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=164248

And a couple of other examples of premiums strong centering/color/registration is getting versus average comps:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161266

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161953


There hasn't been any weakness in pricing for really nice examples of in-demand cards or sets. Those examples have been and will continue to be less sensitive to any market corrections that are inevitable over time, especially after huge runs.
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  #14  
Old 12-04-2023, 11:50 AM
ALR-bishop ALR-bishop is offline
Al Richter
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Timing the market
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  #15  
Old 12-04-2023, 12:13 PM
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nolemmings nolemmings is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
A crash is definitely coming. I am 100 percent certain. My stars, Ouija board, palm reading, tea leaves, and tarot cards are all in perfect alignment. My local gypsy concurs as well.
You're right. I heard it once from a dealer in 1999 whose name I can't remember and maybe never knew but he would have no reason to lie. LOL LOL LOL LOL
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  #16  
Old 12-04-2023, 01:50 PM
oldschool73 oldschool73 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by butchie_t View Post
Better yet, don't ask a question that will never have an answer and post it on a board for all to answer.

Because you will get an answer, just not an answer to an unanswerable question.

Butch Turner

The internet is full of places you can add no value. Enjoy.
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  #17  
Old 12-04-2023, 02:08 PM
Republicaninmass Republicaninmass is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldschool73 View Post
The internet is full of places you can add no value. Enjoy.
But the fun is seeing other pontificate how much they "know" about the market, no matter how disconnected they are with reality, the actual market, and have heated interests in keeping prices going!
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