How many copies of T206 exist today?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Timeless Cardboard

This is definitely not scientific but minus the big money cards like a Wagner where most people have probably had graded. My guess is double the pop report on most prewar cards and you will be close to the final population of a card.

Way more for pre-war and post war, imo.

[NiceDocter]

I would say there have to be thousands of each card (not counting the back variations) in all conditions. To put it in perspective, if you guess only 500 of each card, means each Wagner is only 10 times rarer. Obviously not the case…..

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by NiceDocter

I would say there have to be thousands of each card (not counting the back variations) in all conditions. To put it in perspective, if you guess only 500 of each card, means each Wagner is only 10 times rarer. Obviously not the case…..

I would also guess 1000s of each player. The pop reports are a complete joke and shouldn't be considered accurate for anything. I have personally owned dozens of T206s and T210s that I can trace through at least 3 different slabs. The last Red Cobb I owned I know for a fact has been in 4 different PSA slabs and each time was sent in raw.

[ullmandds]

aside from rarities i also believe there are thousands of each. 2-3000

[G1911]

The easy answer is way, way more than 500, but we don't know. There were likely millions of a T206 common printed.

We have some data points on T cards.

For example, from Fullgraff's records and court records for T225-1 have found at least 21,000,000 cards printed in multiple print runs of as many as 5 million cards in a single day, from August of 1909 to February of 1910 of its 25 subjects. 840,000 printed of each subject, assuming the print runs I have accounted for were 100% of the print runs. This set is not particularly rare today, but nor is it one of the common T sets (t206, T206, T59, T29, etc.). There are several T206 Batch's today for every T225-1 Driscoll's. The survival rate is far below 1%.

T206 figures are not known; and the estimates that assume they were in every Piedmont and Sweet Cap pack for the entire duration the set existed is not a good guesstimate. We could probably extrapolate from sets that are known and relative scarcities to ballpark it as a rough starting point.

[darwinbulldog]

I think about 3,000 for a typical T206. Polar Bears alone there are about 300 copies of each (of those 250 cards). Hall of Fame poses on average should be somewhat more common than "commons" just because people would have been less likely to discard cards of recognized/preferred players (both in 1909-1911 and every year since then).

[JustinD]

I am a likely an outlier but I think including the undiscovered and ungraded, numbers are closer to 10000 each at minimum for common backs. T206 is the 1989 Topps of prewar, there is nothing even close.

Greg’s post is a good starting point for understanding, the numbers of these were astronomical especially when the population is considered. Smoking was common for adults and children at the time, they likely had the opportunity with habit to collect 2-3 cards a day. The stories of sweeping dozens of cards off the floor of bars are common. The only limitation to claiming there is multiples of millions out there is time and that most did not hold onto them for long.

That said, the idea that stars should be more common than “commons” makes logical sense. The stars likely do have the highest real population.

[chalupacollects]

Originally Posted by G1911

The easy answer is way, way more than 500, but we don't know. There were likely millions of a T206 common printed.

We have some data points on T cards.

For example, from Fullgraff's records and court records for T225-1 have found at least 21,000,000 cards printed in multiple print runs of as many as 5 million cards in a single day, from August of 1909 to February of 1910 of its 25 subjects. 840,000 printed of each subject, assuming the print runs I have accounted for were 100% of the print runs. This set is not particularly rare today, but nor is it one of the common T sets (t206, T206, T59, T29, etc.). There are several T206 Batch's today for every T225-1 Driscoll's. The survival rate is far below 1%.

T206 figures are not known; and the estimates that assume they were in every Piedmont and Sweet Cap pack for the entire duration the set existed is not a good guesstimate. We could probably extrapolate from sets that are known and relative scarcities to ballpark it as a rough starting point.

Given that the American Tobacco Company owned about 200 manufacturers of cigarettes by 1910 including A&G and OJ and had revenues of $316 million, if there was a card in every pack and each pack was $0.10 that would be 3.16 billion cards produced. So, the big question is how many baseball cards were produced and how many survived?

Note: by 1911 ATC was broken up by the feds as a monopoly with RJ Reynolds and Philip Morris being created out of that breakup.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by chalupacollects

Given that the American Tobacco Company owned about 200 manufacturers of cigarettes by 1910 including A&G and OJ and had revenues of $316 million, if there was a card in every pack and each pack was $0.10 that would be 3.16 billion cards produced. So, the big question is how many baseball cards were produced and how many survived?

Note: by 1911 ATC was broken up by the feds as a monopoly with RJ Reynolds and Philip Morris being created out of that breakup.

There was not a card in every pack. Some packs had two. Many, many packs had 0. Some brands never issued a set even once during the T card period. We can’t arrive at a reasonable answer by this method.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by Leon

Way more for pre-war and post war, imo.

I agree, it’s way more than double the graded pop report. It’s just too expensive and hard to get stuff graded, especially on the lower end of condition.