2025 HOF -- Early Thoughts

[packs]

I actually think Johan was the litmus test for a pitcher like Felix and the result was a one and done appearance.

His body of work is more impressive than Felix on the surface: Two Cy Youngs and a Triple Crown. But even that wasn't enough to garner 5%.

[todeen]

Comparing them on Baseball Reference, Hernandez has nearly two more seasons of pitching than Johan. Looking only at the W-L records, I don't think we would look at Hernandez as less than Johan if the Mariners weren't so gawd awful horrible. His x2 CY runner-up finishes could have been greatly improved if his teammates could have picked him up.
Johan W-L = 139-78
Felix W-L = 169-136

2009 = 19 W, 5 L, 2.49 ERA, 34 GS, 238 IP (ERA leader and GS leader) 2nd place CY
2014 = 15 W, 6 L, 2.14 ERA, 34 GS, 236 IP (ERA leader and GS leader) 2nd place CY


About his career quality starts: Felix Hernandez has 118 career non-win quality starts – one more than Warren Spahn had in his career. He is 0-42 with a 2.19 ERA in those 118 games started.

Had Felix pitched for a team that wasn't a bottom dweller, we could be talking about him reaching 200 wins. Those Mariners teams were awful, and they affected Felix more negatively than they affected Ichiro.

[packs]

I don't disagree. I'm very interested to see how Felix does. I think Johan had a more HOF ready resume with his ERA titles, CYs and Triple Crown and was very surprised at how little consideration he got.

I'm also interested to see if CC is a first ballot HOFer or not. Those 3,000 K's should get him in, but first try? Not sure.

[G1911]

Wagner is almost a sure thing.

Jones and Beltran likely increase and move closer but miss.

Ichiro makes it, possibly at 100%

Sabathia makes it or makes it the next year.

No one else is a serious candidate.

[commishbob]

Originally Posted by G1911

Wagner is almost a sure thing.

Jones and Beltran likely increase and move closer but miss.

Ichiro makes it, possibly at 100%

Sabathia makes it or makes it the next year.

No one else is a serious candidate.

I agree with each of these.

[gunboat82]

I could see Hernandez (and Santana) getting in on Contemporary Committee votes if they look at advanced stats.

Each had a higher WAR total than Koufax, Lemon, Bender, Bill Foster, Wilhelm, Dean, Pennock, Joss, Chesbro, Goose Gossage, Jack Morris. We can look skeptically at imperfect stats like WAR. But if the point is to measure sustained greatness relative to contemporary peers, some of these pitchers don't have anything on Hernandez or Santana.

[Mike D.]

CC Sabathia will be interesting to see. I'm hearing a lot of people talking about him as a potential 1st ballot inductee.

Yet Andy Pettitte, who's pretty close to Sabathia in terms of career numbers, is lingering in the teens in terms of vote percentage.

I actually think they both belong, but will CC get 75% plus while Pettitte doesn't break 20%? There is the PED thing with Pettitte, but again...that's a big gap.

[packs]

Pettitte will be one of the few pitchers with 100 wins over losses that isn't in the HOF and I think only Clemens joins him in that club.

He would be one of the lowest tiered HOFers in but absent his PED scandal, Pettitte was a beast. Definitely one of those "you had to see him play" guys but nobody in New York ever worried about the game if Andy was pitching.

The guy pitched for 18 years and never had a sub 500 record in a season.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

Pettitte will be one of the few pitchers with 100 wins over losses that isn't in the HOF and I think only Clemens joins him in that club.

He would be one of the lowest tiered HOFers in but absent his PED scandal, Pettitte was a beast. Definitely one of those "you had to see him play" guys but nobody in New York ever worried about the game if Andy was pitching.

The guy pitched for 18 years and never had a sub 500 record in a season.

Bob Caruthers comes to mind as qualifying, 218 and 99 record. Can't think of another one.

[packs]

Yeah I wasn't sure whether to count Caruthers or not since he's technically not eligible for the HOF. Or maybe he is? I see he's credited with 9 seasons as a pitcher but has a 10th counted as a batter.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

Yeah I wasn't sure whether to count Caruthers or not since he's technically not eligible for the HOF. Or maybe he is? I see he's credited with 9 seasons as a pitcher but has a 10th counted as a batter.

He appeared in a game in 10 seasons, meeting the qualification for the Hall.

Originally Posted by packs

Pettitte will be one of the few pitchers with 100 wins over losses that isn't in the HOF and I think only Clemens joins him in that club.

And even if he did not, he still qualifies by the statement given.

[jingram058]

Ichiro is, as they say, In Like Flint. Household name in a constant come and go era. If Sadaharu Oh is the Japanese Babe Ruth, Ichiro is Ty Cobb. It's supposed to be a Hall of greatness, not the Hall of very good. Ichiro is a once in a generation truly great ballplayer.

All the rest, we'll see.