Still crazy prices

[marcmandel]

I'll start by saying, that if there was any misperception, I am a lifelong collector of vintage baseball product and love my collection and chasing my lifelong grails. I buy cards that are good stores of value and tend to be those cards chased by some of the more sophisticated buyers as they have taught me and I've enjoyed learning from, and in some ways, following their lead.

This doesn't necessarily imply I only buy "expensive cards" and in truth, I have a few big-boy cards and a few more that are far more moderate.

I see the younger guys daytrading in modern and ultramodern (mostly basketball, some football, etc.) and I see some of them rolling hundreds of thousands of dollars into their PC (Remember SashaT of YouTube Fame?) only to be left with pennies now. In many ways, they did this to themselves and stood vigilant as values sank faster than the Titanic.

I think they've lost their minds in what they bought and more so, how much they spent for what they bought.

Why in God's name would I not buy a wonderful Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle and see their value preserved and not waste time with the usual day trading? There is real (not manufactured) scarcity of the old and non-shiny stuff and as we all learn in college freshman economics, basic supply and demand will always dictate value and pricing. The modern stuff is vulnerable and susceptible to manufactured price increases coupled with the whiplash of real-world collapses.

I worry that kids who burn a crap-ton of cash on modern shiny stuff in the hope of making long-term returns are simply delusional.

[Leon]

It is the lure of "easy money". The answer to otherwise stupid things, is many times "money."

And almost daily, don't we see self help articles talking about making cards a business, or side-hussle? I haven't seen many ads about collecting for the fun of it. It's always the money aspect. Don't get me wrong, a lot of us have a good bit of money into the cards, but at the end of the day, it's still fun to collect the old, vintage guys. Except on this forum, and a few other places, one wouldn't know it's a hobby rather than only a business.

The card below beats "shiny" every day for me (but probably not for most of the very young collectors).

Originally Posted by marcmandel

I'll start by saying, that if there was any misperception, I am a lifelong collector of vintage baseball product and love my collection and chasing my lifelong grails. I buy cards that are good stores of value and tend to be those cards chased by some of the more sophisticated buyers as they have taught me and I've enjoyed learning from, and in some ways, following their lead.

This doesn't necessarily imply I only buy "expensive cards" and in truth, I have a few big-boy cards and a few more that are far more moderate.

I see the younger guys daytrading in modern and ultramodern (mostly basketball, some football, etc.) and I see some of them rolling hundreds of thousands of dollars into their PC (Remember SashaT of YouTube Fame?) only to be left with pennies now. In many ways, they did this to themselves and stood vigilant as values sank faster than the Titanic.

I think they've lost their minds in what they bought and more so, how much they spent for what they bought.

Why in God's name would I not buy a wonderful Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle and see their value preserved and not waste time with the usual day trading? There is real (not manufactured) scarcity of the old and non-shiny stuff and as we all learn in college freshman economics, basic supply and demand will always dictate value and pricing. The modern stuff is vulnerable and susceptible to manufactured price increases coupled with the whiplash of real-world collapses.

I worry that kids who burn a crap-ton of cash on modern shiny stuff in the hope of making long-term returns are simply delusional.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by marcmandel

I'll start by saying, that if there was any misperception, I am a lifelong collector of vintage baseball product and love my collection and chasing my lifelong grails. I buy cards that are good stores of value and tend to be those cards chased by some of the more sophisticated buyers as they have taught me and I've enjoyed learning from, and in some ways, following their lead.

This doesn't necessarily imply I only buy "expensive cards" and in truth, I have a few big-boy cards and a few more that are far more moderate.

I see the younger guys daytrading in modern and ultramodern (mostly basketball, some football, etc.) and I see some of them rolling hundreds of thousands of dollars into their PC (Remember SashaT of YouTube Fame?) only to be left with pennies now. In many ways, they did this to themselves and stood vigilant as values sank faster than the Titanic.

I think they've lost their minds in what they bought and more so, how much they spent for what they bought.

Why in God's name would I not buy a wonderful Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle and see their value preserved and not waste time with the usual day trading? There is real (not manufactured) scarcity of the old and non-shiny stuff and as we all learn in college freshman economics, basic supply and demand will always dictate value and pricing. The modern stuff is vulnerable and susceptible to manufactured price increases coupled with the whiplash of real-world collapses.

I worry that kids who burn a crap-ton of cash on modern shiny stuff in the hope of making long-term returns are simply delusional.

I started collecting in the 80s and it has always been this way. Even in the 90s when the 1/1s and such became popular the nobodies sold for more than the later in their career HOFers. I remember paying $400-$600 for the 1/1 Wade Boggs cards and the "prospects" from the same set would sell for 10 times what Wade sold for.

The modern collectors have a huge turn over in both cards and collectors. It is just a faster paced version of vintage without the huge price drops after the universal pump and dump is over. So really modern is better because after the big pump and dump the prices go back down. In vintage we are also constantly getting hit by the pump and dump but sadly they pump and dump and the prices still stay crazy high.

[BioCRN]

The new stuff is a money game.

Sticking to base stuff of non-high end product (like Topps flagship), you have to open $300-ish worth of product to get a complete set that can be bought outright for $50-ish when it's released later as a full box set.

Some people opening the new stuff outright toss all the base because they only care about the "hits."

One of the last reasonably priced and affordable pack break these days is Topps Big League. Unfortunately, they recently started to SP some of their "base." It's still a welcome affordable entry-level product and I appreciate it's out there in the hobby.

[Touch'EmAll]

To some degree it is good people get into modern. Some of these very same people will eventually gravitate to vintage and fuel our segment of the market. But yeah, crazy, er, just plain stupid, that there is so much money pouring into young players that will never pan out.

[theshowandme]

Your average 20-30 year old card bro will tell you that they do not care about players they never saw play.

Their fathers and grandfathers probably never told them stories of players.

It is all about making the quick buck via a flip.

Nothing wrong with making $, but its a game of hot potato on these scrubs (see the NFL quarterback market) and you do not want to be one of the last few to handle the steaming pile of... potato.

[sgbernard]

I also am boggled by it, but I would just add: sports betting is now over a $100 billion industry annually. I think you should see the card market for active players as part of that industry. A lot of cash around for that, apparently.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Your average 20-30 year old card bro will tell you that they do not care about players they never saw play.

Their fathers and grandfathers probably never told them stories of players.

It is all about making the quick buck via a flip.

Nothing wrong with making $, but its a game of hot potato on these scrubs (see the NFL quarterback market) and you do not want to be one of the last few to handle the steaming pile of... potato.

I equate it to the Florida Condo boom and bust of a few years back. Eventually the condo has to sell to someone who wants to actually live there at that price. If that person doesn't exist the last flipper in line gets burnt.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I equate it to the Florida Condo boom and bust of a few years back. Eventually the condo has to sell to someone who wants to actually live there at that price. If that person doesn't exist the last flipper in line gets burnt.

Great analogy, Scott

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

The more things change...

Back when inserts first became all the rage it was really easy to see that this year's inserts were awesome and valuable, until next year's came out. Most of these cards, some of which went for hundreds or even thousands of dollars, go for a pittance now. A few truly iconic things have held value. Donruss Elite aren't worth what they were but still do well. Upper Deck Autographed Heroes still perform and 1993 Finest Refractors will likely never die as they are the grandfather to all parallels.

[raulus]

I know that this thread is all about modern prices still being crazy.

But are vintage prices any less crazy?

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by raulus

I know that this thread is all about modern prices still being crazy.

But are vintage prices any less crazy?

I’m finding value all over the place!

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by raulus

I know that this thread is all about modern prices still being crazy.

But are vintage prices any less crazy?

No, they are just as crazy from all the pumping and dumping. Many vintage cards are 5 to 10 times in price from just 6-8 years ago.

[egri]

Originally Posted by raulus

I know that this thread is all about modern prices still being crazy.

But are vintage prices any less crazy?

Admittedly, this is only one card, but when I started my signed 1953 Topps project in 2014, Satchel Paige was a $1,000 card. Maybe as high as $1,200 if the buyer had to have it now, or as low as $800 if the seller was looking to move it quickly. And it stayed at that level for about 5-6 years. They were readily available too; there was always at least 1 or 2 (or more) on eBay, and a few others would pop up from time to time at the auction houses.

Then around 2020, I started seeing it sell in the $2-3,000 range. I figured some sellers were taking profits, some new buyers were impatient, and soon it would return to normal. Instead, over the next few years that became a $4-6,000 card. Now, Probstein sold one last month for over $8,000, and there's another on eBay right now for $12,000. The buyers are holding on to them as well; before those two, it had been a while since I saw one on eBay. As a buyer, it's the worst of both worlds; not only does he not come up as often, but the prices are much higher when he does. There's one in REA right now in a PSA holder that sold for $3,500 two years ago in a Beckett slab; I'm keeping an eye on it but am fully prepared for it to go out of my range.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

To some degree it is good people get into modern. Some of these very same people will eventually gravitate to vintage and fuel our segment of the market. But yeah, crazy, er, just plain stupid, that there is so much money pouring into young players that will never pan out.

I think I'd prefer they stay away from vintage

[Jstottlemire1]

Originally Posted by marcmandel

I'll start by saying, that if there was any misperception, I am a lifelong collector of vintage baseball product and love my collection and chasing my lifelong grails. I buy cards that are good stores of value and tend to be those cards chased by some of the more sophisticated buyers as they have taught me and I've enjoyed learning from, and in some ways, following their lead.

This doesn't necessarily imply I only buy "expensive cards" and in truth, I have a few big-boy cards and a few more that are far more moderate.

I see the younger guys daytrading in modern and ultramodern (mostly basketball, some football, etc.) and I see some of them rolling hundreds of thousands of dollars into their PC (Remember SashaT of YouTube Fame?) only to be left with pennies now. In many ways, they did this to themselves and stood vigilant as values sank faster than the Titanic.

I think they've lost their minds in what they bought and more so, how much they spent for what they bought.

Why in God's name would I not buy a wonderful Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle and see their value preserved and not waste time with the usual day trading? There is real (not manufactured) scarcity of the old and non-shiny stuff and as we all learn in college freshman economics, basic supply and demand will always dictate value and pricing. The modern stuff is vulnerable and susceptible to manufactured price increases coupled with the whiplash of real-world collapses.

I worry that kids who burn a crap-ton of cash on modern shiny stuff in the hope of making long-term returns are simply delusional.

Amen!

[packs]

It seems just as reasonable for someone collecting modern cards to ask why you'd spend more money on a Bill O'Hara card because he's pictured on the Cardinals and not the Giants. Or to question why anyone would pay a few thousand dollars for a card of Louis Lowdermilk.