What is the current state of prices??

Peter_Spaeth · #1 04-22-2024, 09:39 PM

This has been happening for years now. I think one auction had like 10 plus Red Cobbs. Whether or not cannibalization actually happens, I dunno, but I think you basically take that risk especially with relatively common cards.

Lorewalker · #2 04-22-2024, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

This has been happening for years now. I think one auction had like 10 plus Red Cobbs. Whether or not cannibalization actually happens, I dunno, but I think you basically take that risk especially with relatively common cards.

Are the 1921 Exhibit Ruths that common? I don't know the issue. I suppose if there were 3 and their grades were not similar, it might not be as bad but as a consignor I would want to know. I suppose it becomes my burden to ask.

darwinbulldog · #3 04-22-2024, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Are the 1921 Exhibit Ruths that common?

At least as common as "common" 1921 Exhibits, so I'd say yes. The 3 in the auction represent less than 1% of all the surviving copies.

Rhotchkiss · #4 04-22-2024, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

At least as common as "common" 1921 Exhibits, so I'd say yes. The 3 in the auction represent less than 1% of all the surviving copies.

There are 235, 1921 exhibits Ruth�s on the combined PSA/SGC pop report. I bet a sizable minority (20%) are crossovers, and certainly others exist that are not on the pop reports. So if we take the combined pop report as a fairly decent estimate of surviving examples (offsetting crossovers with ungraded), 3 in one auction is 1.28% of the entire population.

By contrast, the PSA pop report shows 2,609 graded red Cobbs (ignoring backs); SGC�s pop report is a major pain and I cannot tell how many red Cobbs have been graded without searching every year 1909-11 and all applicable backs. So looking at the PSA pop alone, t206 red Cobbs are 11.1x more common the 1921 exhibit Ruth�s. Let�s assume that SGC has graded 1500 red Cobbs, the difference becomes 17.5x.

Based on this comparison, three 1921 Ruth exhibits is equal to 52.5, t206 red Cobbs. 52.5 red Cobbs in one auction seems excessive. Yet 3 Ruth Exhibits (especially if different grades/condition and grading companies) seems much more ok.

And this is the garbage that gets posted at midnight when one cannot sleep bc they add thinking of cards!

Casey2296 · #5 04-22-2024, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

There are 235, 1921 exhibits Ruth�s on the combined PSA/SGC pop report. I bet a sizable minority (20%) are crossovers, and certainly others exist that are not on the pop reports. So if we take the combined pop report as a fairly decent estimate of surviving examples (offsetting crossovers with ungraded), 3 in one auction is 1.28% of the entire population.

By contrast, the PSA pop report shows 2,609 graded red Cobbs (ignoring backs); SGC�s pop report is a major pain and I cannot tell how many red Cobbs have been graded without searching every year 1909-11 and all applicable backs. So looking at the PSA pop alone, t206 red Cobbs are 11.1x more common the 1921 exhibit Ruth�s. Let�s assume that SGC has graded 1500 red Cobbs, the difference becomes 17.5x.

Based on this comparison, three 1921 Ruth exhibits is equal to 52.5, t206 red Cobbs. 52.5 red Cobbs in one auction seems excessive. Yet 3 Ruth Exhibits (especially if different grades/condition and grading companies) seems much more ok.

And this is the garbage that gets posted at midnight when one cannot sleep bc they add thinking of cards!

The 21 Exhibits Ruth is the most estheticaly pleasing early Ruth postcard imo, all three cards were well bought and advantageous to the buyers that there were three similar examples available at the same time, I can only hope Ben was the winner of one of them so he can mercifully stop bumping his BST thread.

calvindog · #6 04-23-2024, 07:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Casey2296

The 21 Exhibits Ruth is the most estheticaly pleasing early Ruth postcard imo, all three cards were well bought and advantageous to the buyers that there were three similar examples available at the same time, I can only hope Ben was the winner of one of them so he can mercifully stop bumping his BST thread.

Maybe it was Ben selling his dupes?

sportscardpete · #7 04-23-2024, 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Casey2296

The 21 Exhibits Ruth is the most estheticaly pleasing early Ruth postcard imo, all three cards were well bought and advantageous to the buyers that there were three similar examples available at the same time, I can only hope Ben was the winner of one of them so he can mercifully stop bumping his BST thread.

Oh gosh this made me LOL.

I did win one of the 21 exhibits in REA. I thought prices had come down a lot before the auction, so wasn't entirely surprised with where they ended up, and don't necessarily think having 3 at the same time impacted the price. I think Ruth in generally has been weak this year.

I thought Wagner was weak generally speaking (especially the M116), but again I think that had started before this auction.

The JKA Cobb - what a card and what a price. The 51 signed Mantle, what a price. Definitely some strength in the hobby still showing, just not in the usual Ruth/Wagner channel.

calvindog · #8 04-23-2024, 08:55 AM

Thanks Pete. Way to make me feel worse. 🤣

Casey2296 · #9 04-23-2024, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

I thought Wagner was weak generally speaking (especially the M116), but again I think that had started before this auction

There was a modern guy buying a lot of Wagner portraits during the recent run up, I think he ended up with about 15 of them. Doesn't take much to move that needle up other than money, tends to create a false market with some of these pre-war cards.

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