Been a long time

[bk400]

Originally Posted by G1911

Yes it is the standard. If you're going to post that X group has a problem with being pedophiles, that group better turn out to be statistically prone to that charge. When you say a group or organization has a problem with being pedophiles, obviously that should be a statistically valid claim. That's an extremely serious charge, why shouldn't the claim be statistically robust? A few names out of many thousands to paint MLB as having a pedo problem is pretty weird and so far out of left field nobody saw that ball coming.

Ok fine. I'll play a bit more. According to the Baseball Almanac, there have been 20,618 players who have played in an MLB game since 1876. The number of players who have played since 1947 is around 11,000, according to the Society for American Baseball Research. I recall reading somewhere that Albert Pujols, who started in 2001, was around player number 16,000. In any given year, there are about 1,000 MLB players on all the rosters. I'm going to estimate that the number of of MLB players who have played since 1996 is around 5,500, or half the total who have played since 1947. Happy to be challenged on the exact number, but I cannot find it easily.

I use 1996 as the base year because that was the year that New York passed the Sex Offender registry law, and there is online data available. It also happens to be the case that the 8 players that I named in my last post all played after 1996.

I compared the convicted sex offender registration rate in the top 15 wealthiest zip codes in New York (adjusted for the number of males between 18-64 in those zip codes) with that of the estimated MLB population since 1996. Why do I choose the 15 wealthiest zip codes? It's not perfect, but someone made the point that pedophilia might be as common among bankers, lawyers and teachers as it is among MLB players. I thought that bankers and lawyers, at least, might be more represented in the top 15 zip codes than in other areas. MLB players are also more likely to themselves be in a high income bracket.

The result is that the MLB sex offense rate is more than 2x that of the 15 wealthiest zip codes in New York. If you break it down by individual zip code, the MLB rate is higher than 13 out of the 15 zip codes. (For those who are curious, MLB did better than zip codes 10007 and 10013, which accounted for only about 7.5% of the total population set.)

Note that the sex offender registry includes all sex crimes, whereas my MLB examples only included offenses against underage victims. If I had the stomach to go case by case in the New York registry and strip out the guys who only commited offenses against adults, I suspect that the numbers would come out even worse for the baseball players.

[Snapolit1]

I suspect a Major League Baseball player or former Major League Baseball player or former Hollywood actor is way more likely to have charges pressed against him than someone’s weird Uncle All who is a refrigerator repair man.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I suspect a Major League Baseball player or former Major League Baseball player or former Hollywood actor is way more likely to have charges pressed against him than someone’s weird Uncle All who is a refrigerator repair man.

+1 Follow the money....

[G1911]

Originally Posted by bk400

Ok fine. I'll play a bit more. According to the Baseball Almanac, there have been 20,618 players who have played in an MLB game since 1876. The number of players who have played since 1947 is around 11,000, according to the Society for American Baseball Research. I recall reading somewhere that Albert Pujols, who started in 2001, was around player number 16,000. In any given year, there are about 1,000 MLB players on all the rosters. I'm going to estimate that the number of of MLB players who have played since 1996 is around 5,500, or half the total who have played since 1947. Happy to be challenged on the exact number, but I cannot find it easily.

I use 1996 as the base year because that was the year that New York passed the Sex Offender registry law, and there is online data available. It also happens to be the case that the 8 players that I named in my last post all played after 1996.

I compared the convicted sex offender registration rate in the top 15 wealthiest zip codes in New York (adjusted for the number of males between 18-64 in those zip codes) with that of the estimated MLB population since 1996. Why do I choose the 15 wealthiest zip codes? It's not perfect, but someone made the point that pedophilia might be as common among bankers, lawyers and teachers as it is among MLB players. I thought that bankers and lawyers, at least, might be more represented in the top 15 zip codes than in other areas. MLB players are also more likely to themselves be in a high income bracket.

The result is that the MLB sex offense rate is more than 2x that of the 15 wealthiest zip codes in New York. If you break it down by individual zip code, the MLB rate is higher than 13 out of the 15 zip codes. (For those who are curious, MLB did better than zip codes 10007 and 10013, which accounted for only about 7.5% of the total population set.)

Note that the sex offender registry includes all sex crimes, whereas my MLB examples only included offenses against underage victims. If I had the stomach to go case by case in the New York registry and strip out the guys who only commited offenses against adults, I suspect that the numbers would come out even worse for the baseball players.

Points to you for doing it and piecing together a proper argument for the claim. I don't know what this has to do with Ohtani, but non-sarcastically - points for you for going back and doing a real argument for it.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by bk400

Ok fine. I'll play a bit more. According to the Baseball Almanac, there have been 20,618 players who have played in an MLB game since 1876. The number of players who have played since 1947 is around 11,000, according to the Society for American Baseball Research. I recall reading somewhere that Albert Pujols, who started in 2001, was around player number 16,000. In any given year, there are about 1,000 MLB players on all the rosters. I'm going to estimate that the number of of MLB players who have played since 1996 is around 5,500, or half the total who have played since 1947. Happy to be challenged on the exact number, but I cannot find it easily.

I use 1996 as the base year because that was the year that New York passed the Sex Offender registry law, and there is online data available. It also happens to be the case that the 8 players that I named in my last post all played after 1996.

I compared the convicted sex offender registration rate in the top 15 wealthiest zip codes in New York (adjusted for the number of males between 18-64 in those zip codes) with that of the estimated MLB population since 1996. Why do I choose the 15 wealthiest zip codes? It's not perfect, but someone made the point that pedophilia might be as common among bankers, lawyers and teachers as it is among MLB players. I thought that bankers and lawyers, at least, might be more represented in the top 15 zip codes than in other areas. MLB players are also more likely to themselves be in a high income bracket.

The result is that the MLB sex offense rate is more than 2x that of the 15 wealthiest zip codes in New York. If you break it down by individual zip code, the MLB rate is higher than 13 out of the 15 zip codes. (For those who are curious, MLB did better than zip codes 10007 and 10013, which accounted for only about 7.5% of the total population set.)

Note that the sex offender registry includes all sex crimes, whereas my MLB examples only included offenses against underage victims. If I had the stomach to go case by case in the New York registry and strip out the guys who only commited offenses against adults, I suspect that the numbers would come out even worse for the baseball players.

I'm not sure how you identified the 15 wealthiest zip codes or found the male populations (ages 18-64) for them, but I imagine I could find the same information if I wanted to spend the time searching for it. However, I did take a look at the New York Sex Offender registry, and it indicates that there are levels of risk from 1 to 3 (based on risk of re-offending). The search results that are available on-line only returns people who are at level 2 and 3. I don't know the percentage of people at each risk level, but since the results you used exclude level 1, it may not be a completely valid comparison to MLB players.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by jayshum

I'm not sure how you identified the 15 wealthiest zip codes or found the male populations (ages 18-64) for them, but I imagine I could find the same information if I wanted to spend the time searching for it. However, I did take a look at the New York Sex Offender registry, and it indicates that there are levels of risk from 1 to 3 (based on risk of re-offending). The search results that are available on-line only returns people who are at level 2 and 3. I don't know the percentage of people at each risk level, but since the results you used exclude level 1, it may not be a completely valid comparison to MLB players.

Yes, I considered this as best I could: the fact patterns with the 8 examples I quickly found from the MLB population set is much more consistent with the fact patterns that would put someone in Level 2 or Level 3 in New York than a Level 1. This said, it is fair to say that since none of the 8 MLB cases that I cited were adjudicated in New York, we don't know with absolute certainty.