Paul Skenes Superfractor Ends in Goldin

Fred · #1 06-04-2024, 09:05 PM

What happens if Skenes has a career ending injury this year (no, let's hope that doesn't happen). What would that refractor be worth? I can't imagine anybody would pay much for it. Total speculation. Even if he goes on to have a decent career, let's say borderline HOF worthy, what will the card be worth in 15-20 years? It just blows my mind people have this kind of money to just piss away. But then again, what if he has a prolific pitching career and is a first ballot HOFer. What would it be worth then? Well, to me, not much.

bnorth · #2 06-04-2024, 09:19 PM

It is just another silly game of hot potato. Some will win big, some will win small, and someone will be left holding something worth less than a potato.

I used to go on BO because there are always these beyond silly cards being hyped up. I remember all the experts telling me how amazing Yasiel Puig was and how at 30k/40K(can't remember) his superfractor was a steal. I am guessing a cup of coffee and a five spot could own it now.

Fred · #3 06-08-2024, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bnorth

It is just another silly game of hot potato. Some will win big, some will win small, and someone will be left holding something worth less than a potato.

I used to go on BO because there are always these beyond silly cards being hyped up. I remember all the experts telling me how amazing Yasiel Puig was and how at 30k/40K(can't remember) his superfractor was a steal. I am guessing a cup of coffee and a five spot could own it now.

Yasiel who?

Casey2296 · #4 06-04-2024, 09:23 PM

How are those 1/1 Wander Franco rookie cards tracking?

robertsmithnocure · #5 06-07-2024, 01:09 PM

It would be interesting to see some sort of index that tracked these 1/1 cards that sold before the players had much, if any, MLB experience.

Exhibitman · #6 06-07-2024, 01:56 PM

On his 2nd go at Ohtani, Shohei sent it back at him at 105 and over the fence in dead center

Crash Davis: Man that ball got outta here in a hurry. I mean anything travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?

packs · #7 06-07-2024, 03:20 PM

I would love to see Skenes be a freak like Nolan Ryan and pitch for 20 years. I guess Randy Johnson was as close to Nolan as I've gotten to see in terms of a guy who throws that hard that often for that long, but it would be great to see a guy with a super arm harness it again.

Peter_Spaeth · #8 06-07-2024, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I would love to see Skenes be a freak like Nolan Ryan and pitch for 20 years. I guess Randy Johnson was as close to Nolan as I've gotten to see in terms of a guy who throws that hard that often for that long, but it would be great to see a guy with a super arm harness it again.

Look at some clips and would be curious your take on his mechanics.

HistoricNewspapers · #9 06-13-2024, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Look at some clips and would be curious your take on his mechanics.

Skenes mechanics are fine. It is just simply going to come down to pure luck if his body has the ability to withstand that amount of torque on his arm for an extended period of time. Some guys last and some don't.

Did Schilling pointing out any specific flaws, or just that he will get injured at some point because he throws so hard. Isn't that kind of like the broken clock being correct twice a day?

Centauri · #10 06-08-2024, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Casey2296

How are those 1/1 Wander Franco rookie cards tracking?

Wander became worthless, but not because of his production in the majors - the hype was proven well founded there. Dude was elite.

Casey2296 · #11 06-08-2024, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Centauri

Wander became worthless, but not because of his production in the majors - the hype was proven well founded there. Dude was elite.

I know it's two different markets but I think pre-war is much safer, we already know what Ty Cobb did on the field, we already know that Hal Chase and Cap Anson were shitheads.

With modern you never know if someone is getting injured or catching charges, I guess thats the gamble though.

Personally, I feel much safer buying a 1914 CJ Jackson for the same price as a guy who played 4 games but that's just me.

BioCRN · #12 06-08-2024, 09:39 PM

Is there anyone that thinks this card was purchased by a Paul Skenes super fan?

It's gambling...I mean, prospecting. Yeah, prospecting.

In other areas beyond the crazy price for a high-end super-prospect there's lesser Superfractor "prospectors" paying thousands of dollars for guys that only have a sliver of Skenes's talent hoping they can flip it during a hot point in their career.

Someone paid $1000 for a Edouard Julien RC Superfractor (PSA 10) 2 weeks ago. He's a defensive average-at-best 25 year old 2nd baseman slashing .245/.358/.428 in 602 PA over 2 seasons...and doing worse this season compared to last year.

The buy-in is much bigger, but I like the chances for the Skenes investor over guys chasing talent like Julien.

Gorditadogg · #13 06-10-2024, 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I know it's two different markets but I think pre-war is much safer, we already know what Ty Cobb did on the field, we already know that Hal Chase and Cap Anson were shitheads.

With modern you never know if someone is getting injured or catching charges, I guess thats the gamble though.

Personally, I feel much safer buying a 1914 CJ Jackson for the same price as a guy who played 4 games but that's just me.

Obviously, there's additional risk when you need to project a player's career, rather than waiting until they've retired. And sure, a lot of people seem to over-estimate what will happen, driving up prices a bit.

But when I see right here in the BST section that you need to pay $6,000 for a 1-of-1 card of Herbie Moran, an outfielder who ended with 2 career home runs (and it's not even autographed), $80k for Skenes doesn't seem so bad.

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

Casey2296 · #14 06-10-2024, 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Obviously, there's additional risk when you need to project a player's career, rather than waiting until they've retired. And sure, a lot of people seem to over-estimate what will happen, driving up prices a bit.

But when I see right here in the BST section that you need to pay $6,000 for a 1-of-1 card of Herbie Moran, an outfielder who ended with 2 career home runs (and it's not even autographed), $80k for Skenes doesn't seem so bad.

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

Yea, that's just crazy in my opinion when you can buy a 1907 Dietsche Cobb for the same amount, but to each their own.

packs · #15 06-11-2024, 08:23 AM

I think we should recognize that there are equally as nutty valuations in pre-war. I'm sure a modern collector will have just as big laugh on a guy who spends a few thousand bucks on a Louis Lowdermilk T207. He of his 4 and 5 career record.

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