The National will be interesting

theshowandme · #1 07-01-2024, 07:56 AM

I'll be there window shopping.

Spent all my money in Paris a few weeks ago.

I imagine many others have gone back to putting significant $ towards family vacations and entertainment (concerts, major sporting events, etc.).

BillyCoxDodgers3B · #2 07-01-2024, 08:03 AM

Most years, it seems like someone posts something similar, then their fears are dispelled once the show happens.

Snapolit1 · #3 07-01-2024, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

Most years, it seems like someone posts something similar, then their fears are dispelled once the show happens.

Entirely possible. And afterwards someone will post that they heard from a friend sales were way down and someone else will post that they kicked ass and sold a ton.

Pretty hard to deny that there isn�t a great buzz heading into this.

I will hold off for the east coast national in westchester in August. Maybe I will arrange a Net 54 dinner at the Nathan�s hot dog concession.

Kco · #4 07-01-2024, 08:10 AM

It'll be a "normal" national, not like Chicago in 2021 after missing a year and with money pouring into the hobby.

Vintage Autos/Memorabilia and card prices remain strong, if not at all time highs of a couple years ago. Modern is an area I do not dabble in, but its been getting whacked sans a few product lines and players for a couple years now.

I for one won't mind if the show isn't absolutely overrun with crowds personally. It's also all relative, eBay is a dumping ground of stuff that generally is left over for many sellers. The best items rarely make it there and often end up in AH's or private dealers.

I think I buy about 1/10th of my collection, at most, off eBay.

Johnny630 · #5 07-01-2024, 08:21 AM

I will say Vintage Raw Cards will sell well especially if priced fairly and middle grade or better. Many people are buying these cards and grading them. Just look at GM they list lots of raw cards in said condition and they do very well... people will pay up for nice eye appeal middle grade raw cards to grade themselves. Look at PSA and SGC submission numbers they're always high or higher than last month.

I will say people with graded material at 2021/22 prices whom are not willing to considerably negotiate or their sticker will be sitting there basically with a show and tell week.

Exhibitman · #6 07-01-2024, 08:46 AM

There you go again, Steve, stirring things up.

The crazy is over and the desperation buying it fueled is over too, which is fine with me as a buyer and as a dealer. I view it like a correction in the stock market. We had a hell of a bull run, now we give back some of the profits. Sure, I have a few purchases I wish I'd not made, but overall, still way, way up from 2020. Going forward, the rule is pretty simple and time-tested: good stuff at fair prices sells readily; not so good stuff is good bargain-hunting. Last show I worked was Pasadena in May and I had a strong sales weekend. My eBay sales are very brisk lately. I have good stuff and I don't price-gouge. I also sell lesser material for lesser prices and it flies out of my picking boxes at shows. Same holds true as a buyer: For my PC I've won an item or two in most of the recent auctions and all but two items (a signed Joe Louis piece I'd been after for years and a signed Richard Petty card from the 1952 Topps of NASCAR sets; see my recent column live-streaming my bidding strategy that night in Heritage) were with conservative max bids that I was happy to win at and content to lose with if beaten by a higher bid. For resale, I've been able to bottom-feed readily and expect a lot more of the same as wannabes bail out (don't hate the player, hate the game).

Any dealer at the National with fairly priced good stuff will do great. Anyone catering to budgeted collectors will do great. Any dealer trying to whale hunt or gouge desperate buyers on anything mainstream will be sitting in a mini-museum.

Snapolit1 · #7 07-01-2024, 08:50 AM

I need to give you a steady stream of trite collecting observations for your blog.

Seriously, I enjoy reading your Blog very much. Great work.

Exhibitman;2444818]There you go again, Steve, stirring things up.

The crazy is over, which is fine with me as a buyer and as a dealer. Good stuff at fair prices sells readily. Last show I worked was Pasadena in May and I had a strong sales weekend. My eBay sales are very brisk lately. I have good stuff and I don't price-gouge. Same holds true as a buyer: I've won an item or two in most of the recent auctions and all but two items were with conservative max bids that I was happy to win at and content to lose with if beaten by a higher bid.

Any dealer at the National with fairly priced good stuff will do great. Any dealer trying to gouge will be sitting in a mini-museum.[/QUOTE]

packs · #8 07-01-2024, 09:15 AM

If you price them fairly, they will come.

jbsports33 · #9 07-01-2024, 10:25 AM

I also really second that thought!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I'll be there window shopping.

Spent all my money in Paris a few weeks ago.

I imagine many others have gone back to putting significant $ towards family vacations and entertainment (concerts, major sporting events, etc.).

calvindog · #10 07-01-2024, 11:18 AM

The National has become largely an advertising vehicle for corporations; it's become much harder to buy significant cards. The best stuff you'll see will be items featured in upcoming auctions.

3-2-count · #11 07-01-2024, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calvindog

The National has become largely an advertising vehicle for corporations; it's become much harder to buy significant cards. The best stuff you'll see will be items featured in upcoming auctions.

Agreed. That coupled with the cost to travel from the west coast when airfare and hotels are in play make it an easy decison for me.

I haven't attended a National in over 7 years and purchase most of my items via auction house anymore, and am perfectly fine by doing so.

Leon · #12 07-01-2024, 12:03 PM

The National is largely a social event for a lot of hobbyists, as myself.

I generally find a few things, here and there, but not always. Here are 3 from last years National.

.

Exhibitman · #13 07-01-2024, 12:13 PM

Hey, Leon, that's a pretty productive show. The clarity on the Frederick's is fantastic.

I've always looked forward to a big show as a place for oddball finds, the sort of stuff I didn't know I needed until I saw it, for tougher regional cards, and to fill out sets. Not so much to make a marquee acquisition, though I was pleased as punch to get the last Koufax I needed for my food card run (a 1958 Bell) at a great price at the 2019 show.

I'm not even going this year due to a variety of family and business commitments but rarin' to get back into it next year in Chicago.

BillyCoxDodgers3B · #14 07-01-2024, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calvindog

The best stuff you'll see will be items featured in upcoming auctions.

Much of which is previously regurgitated material that we're all far too familiar with. Regardless if rehashed snoozers or exciting new discoveries, all can be viewed from the comfort of home.

packs · #15 07-01-2024, 12:34 PM

I don't really think shows of any scale are a barometer of the market. I've been to more shows than I can remember and I rarely ever bought anything at them, even going back all the way to the early internet days. I have always found the card show to be more of a museum than an active trading ground but it doesn't stop me from having a good time looking around.

I can remember the early eBay days when I would be at a show trying to work a deal and out would come the price guide. The dealer would decide what condition their card was in, and then tell you why this particular card is a lot nicer than the average card and worth above book value, meanwhile any time I tried to sell one of my cards it was always poor eye appeal and the dealer could only offer below book value on it.

Hasn't changed much, but I still have fun.

Lorewalker · #16 07-01-2024, 12:59 PM

Feels to me like the OP could use an anti-depressant. The market is off of it's highs. BFD. It has been off it's highs before, since I have been involved and it will be off again. Overall the market feels pretty strong all things considered given the economy. I am still losing out on most of the things I bid on so it cannot be that soft. I would focus on the better buys and not the pov of a falling sky.

Snapolit1 · #17 07-01-2024, 01:32 PM

That's odd . . . a dozen or so people agree with me . . .and you think I'm mentally ill. Very interesting.

notfast · #18 07-01-2024, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I don't really think shows of any scale are a barometer of the market. I've been to more shows than I can remember and I rarely ever bought anything at them, even going back all the way to the early internet days. I have always found the card show to be more of a museum than an active trading ground but it doesn't stop me from having a good time looking around.

I can remember the early eBay days when I would be at a show trying to work a deal and out would come the price guide. The dealer would decide what condition their card was in, and then tell you why this particular card is a lot nicer than the average card and worth above book value, meanwhile any time I tried to sell one of my cards it was always poor eye appeal and the dealer could only offer below book value on it.

Hasn't changed much, but I still have fun.

Shows are probably the best barometer of the market IMO. You need all types of people to be engaged and all types of people attend shows.

packs · #19 07-01-2024, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notfast

Shows are probably the best barometer of the market IMO. You need all types of people to be engaged and all types of people attend shows.

Maybe a barometer for the health of card shows but doesn't trading need to occur for it to be a barometer of the market? There are a lot of threads about shows on the board all the time. Occasionally someone has some nice scores that they post but for the most part, they are simply reports of what was seen and light on buying.

My personal experience has been that the card show is more of a museum experience for people to look at things rather than an active trading post.

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