World Series Predictions?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I'm in the same boat.

On the other hand, I did just finish watching "The Comeback" on Netflix. Be nice if they could replicate what the Red Sox did to them 20 years ago. Huge long shot, I know.

Aren't the chances of winning three games in a row one in eight, assuming roughly even odds for each game? Of course this may be complicated by the fact that one loss ends it, but not sure the odds are THAT long.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Aren't the chances of winning three games in a row one in eight, assuming roughly even odds for each game? Of course this may be complicated by the fact that one loss ends it, but not sure the odds are THAT long.

Well, it's 4 games in a row in total (not willing to remove that from the odds just because they got one of those out of the way), and as far as I know, the only team that's ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, is that Red Sox team against the Yankees.

I wish I could be more optimistic. Maybe Judge will break out of his slump....but Betts and Ohtani could also start lighting it up at any time.

As a cynical New York fan, I believe they are just one Gleyber Torres single off the wall, that he inexplicably thought was an upper deck Home Run away (or Clay Holmes in a high leverage situation) from blowing this series.

I'm not normally one to nit-pick stuff like this, but feel like I'm the only one who noticed he was barely out of the batters box last night, when his 3 run opposite field HR, landed just over the wall into the 1st row seats......which BTW, is pretty typical Gleyber behavior.

I mean, I don't care if you stop and stare and throw a giant bat flip at a no-doubter 30 rows up.....but Gleyber man...you ain't Barry Bonds or Aaron Judge. You might have a little bit of pop for a 2nd Baseman, but you haven't hit many "no-doubters" in your career.....especially to the opposite field.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Well, it's 4 games in a row in total (not willing to remove that from the odds just because they got one of those out of the way), and as far as I know, the only team that's ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, is that Red Sox team against the Yankees.

I wish I could be more optimistic. Maybe Judge will break out of his slump....but Betts and Ohtani could also start lighting it up at any time.

As a cynical New York fan, I believe they are just one Gleyber Torres single off the wall, that he inexplicably thought was an upper deck Home Run away (or Clay Holmes in a high leverage situation) from blowing this series.

I'm not normally one to nit-pick stuff like this, but feel like I'm the only one who noticed he was barely out of the batters box last night, when his 3 run opposite field HR, landed just over the wall into the 1st row seats......which BTW, is pretty typical Gleyber behavior.

I mean, I don't care if you stop and stare and throw a giant bat flip at a no-doubter 30 rows up.....but Gleyber man...you ain't Barry Bonds or Aaron Judge. You might have a little bit of pop for a 2nd Baseman, but you haven't hit many "no-doubters" in your career.....especially to the opposite field.

The results of past coin flips do not affect the odds of the next one. As I understand it, we calculate the odds going forwards.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The results of past coin flips do not affect the odds of the next one. As I understand it, we calculate the odds going forwards.

I don't quite see these games as coin flips, especially with 2 of them in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers resting their best relievers during Game 4.


Even if it was the same as flipping a coin, and you ignore the previous "heads" flip, 12.5% odds are still a pretty big long shot to me.

I hope I'm wrong.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I don't quite see these games as coin flips, especially with 2 of them in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers resting their best relievers during Game 4.


Even if it was the same as flipping a coin, and you ignore the previous "heads" flip, 12.5% odds are still a pretty big long shot to me.

I hope I'm wrong.

Sure, but when you said huge long shot, it sounded like you were thinking 1 in 100 or worse.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Sure, but when you said huge long shot, it sounded like you were thinking 1 in 100 or worse.

Well, based on past Playoff History, the actual results have been 1 in 40. Maybe that means the Yankees are due to bring those odds back into a realistic figure.

I hope you're right. Following this team all year, they just don't seem built for it.

[D. Bergin]

Thanks for trying to keep me optimistic BTW!