eras committee candidates baseball HOF

cgjackson222 · #1 11-14-2024, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

Per BR, in 1973 his offensive WAR came to 5.1 and his dWAR came to 4.0 but he's awarded an 8.3 WAR overall.

I don't know how those calculations are made, but dWAR seems extremely flawed to me and I'm not sure how much stock it's meant to carry.

I say this because according to dWAR, Don Mattingly, a 9 time Gold Glove winner and more or less universally acclaimed first baseman, has only negative dWAR for his entire career, which doesn't seem like a reflection of his actual play.

So if you put that much stock in dWAR, it appears Grich had an 8 WAR season. But did he? I don't know because dWAR seems so out of whack. If you do accept his 8.3 WAR as accurate and a reflection of his play, then I still feel like you are putting an extreme amount of stock in stellar defensive play from your second baseman in place of actual production. Which you can do, of course. But given his 19th place finish in MVP voting and non-selection as an All Star during what is, by WAR, his best statistical season, could reflect similar disinterest.

Again, Grich led the league in Putouts, Assists, Double Plays AND had a fielding % of .995 as a 2nd baseman, and played all 162 games. This is why his DWAR was so high.

He didn't make the All Star team or finish high in MVP voting because of people like you and Tabe that only seem to care about batting average and HRs. But that doesn't mean he didn't deserve to be higher in MVP voting. There are many, many examples of MVP votes going towards undeserving guys. I am not saying Grich deserved to win MVP, but he deserved to be higher than 19th (he should have definitely been higher than Tommy Davis and Orlando Cepeda, for example)

packs · #2 11-14-2024, 02:16 PM

I'm not saying Grich was a terrible player, just that he was not a HOFer and even at his best, without a defensive metric it becomes very difficult to discuss him in terms of being a great player.

Great fielder, could take a walk, sure. I agree. But there seems to be so much more stock put in Grich's defensive metrics than I find reasonable. He played second base, not shortstop, not catcher, not centerfield. There are plenty of slick fielding second basemen but I don't think that turns them into HOFers. It barely creates HOFers at short.

cgjackson222 · #3 11-14-2024, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I'm not saying Grich was a terrible player, just that he was not a HOFer and even at his best, without a defensive metric it becomes very difficult to discuss him in terms of being a great player.

Great fielder, could take a walk, sure. I agree. But there seems to be so much more stock put in Grich's defensive metrics than I find reasonable. He played second base, not shortstop, not catcher, not centerfield. There are plenty of slick fielding second basemen but I don't think that turns them into HOFers. It barely creates HOFers at short.

Not sure what you have against 2nd basemen. They are probably more important defensively than Center Fielders.

Here are the defensive adjustments per position as calculated by Baseball References WAR:

Current values (per 1350 (150*9) innings played) are:

C: +9 runs
SS: +7 runs
2B: +3 runs
CF: +2.5 runs
3B: +2 runs
RF: -7 runs
LF: -7 runs
1B: -9.5 runs
DH: -15 runs

So if you play an amazing 2nd base, you can be the most valuable fielder in your League. You may have seen that the National League Platinum Glove (best overall fielder) went to Brice Turang, 2nd baseman of the Brewers this year. But Grich's 1973 season was WAY better than Turang's past season.

packs · #4 11-14-2024, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Not sure what you have against 2nd basemen. They are probably more important defensively than Center Fielders.

Here are the defensive adjustments per position as calculated by Baseball References WAR:

Current values (per 1350 (150*9) innings played) are:

C: +9 runs
SS: +7 runs
2B: +3 runs
CF: +2.5 runs
3B: +2 runs
RF: -7 runs
LF: -7 runs
1B: -9.5 runs
DH: -15 runs

So if you play an amazing 2nd base, you can be the most valuable fielder in your League. You may have seen that the National League Platinum Glove (best overall fielder) went to Brice Turang, 2nd baseman of the Brewers this year. But Grich's 1973 season was WAY better than Turang's past season.

Since Bobby Grich retired, can you think of a second baseman elected to the HOF for his glove?

cgjackson222 · #5 11-14-2024, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

Since Bobby Grich retired, can you think of a second baseman elected to the HOF for his glove?

There haven't been many 2nd baseman get into the HOF since Grich retired. But Mazeroski, Schoendienst and Fox are a few examples over the years.

But Grich's offensive numbers stack up well against HOF 2nd baseman.

Here is the OPS+ of all 2nd baseman in the HOF.

1) Hornsby: 175
2) Lajoie: 150
3) Collins: 141
4) Morgan: 132
5) Jackie R: 132
6) Carew: 131 (but he played a lot of first base)
7) Gehringer: 124
8) Lazzeri: 121
9) Gordon: 120
10) Doerr: 115
11) Sandberg: 114
12) Billy Herman: 112
13) Biggio: 112
14) Frish: 110
15) McPhee: 107
16) Evers: 106
17) Nellie Fox: 94
18) Schoendienst: 94
19) Mazeroski: 84

Grichs' career OPS+ is 125, so it is better than 12 of the 19 HOF 2nd baseman.

It's also better than Jeff Kent's (123) or Lou Whitaker (117).

I wouldn't be super-excited if Grich got into the HOF, but I also wouldn't throw a sh*t fit, like I think you would.

BillyCoxDodgers3B · #6 11-14-2024, 02:52 PM

An honest, non-sarcastic question here. I don't purport to understand this WAR, even less so when it comes to my favorite player, Billy Cox, so forgive if my question seems ridiculous.

You will find multiple accounts from Cox' contemporaries that he was the best defensive third baseman in the league. Some even felt perhaps the best ever until Brooks Robinson came along. I even heard it directly from Brooks himself that he was of the same opinion (naturally, the ever-humble Brooks did not add the "until I came along"!). If his own contemporaries, in addition to the man who most people feel was the greatest say this, then why is Cox' WAR only 10.1? Yes, he was a light hitter. From what I have read here, however, being at the top of your game defensively should serve to boost up your WAR.

Looking at Cox' fielding stats, it certainly doesn't show him as a league leader. Could all of those people who would have had an educated opinion and witnessed him in action be as wrong about him as his pitiful WAR would suggest? I'd venture not. Single season WAR totals are awful. So, what wasn't he doing? Or, dare I say it, is WAR not an ironclad formula to fairly rate every single player?

Is it all in the fact that he wasn't prone to being played throughout entire seasons? It may be apples and oranges for all I know, but look at Riggs Stephenson. He's another player who had some fancy stats (of course, remembered more for his BA) but struggled with games played each season. Still, his WAR is 32.8.

packs · #7 11-14-2024, 03:13 PM

I don’t think my posts suggest I’d throw a fit, only that I think Grich is correctly omitted from consideration.

I was looking at Fox on BR and the voting on him. He got all the way up to 74.7% on his final ballot before entering the veterans pool. I wonder if that’s the closest anyone has come without getting in.

GaryPassamonte · #8 11-17-2024, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

An honest, non-sarcastic question here. I don't purport to understand this WAR, even less so when it comes to my favorite player, Billy Cox, so forgive if my question seems ridiculous.

You will find multiple accounts from Cox' contemporaries that he was the best defensive third baseman in the league. Some even felt perhaps the best ever until Brooks Robinson came along. I even heard it directly from Brooks himself that he was of the same opinion (naturally, the ever-humble Brooks did not add the "until I came along"!). If his own contemporaries, in addition to the man who most people feel was the greatest say this, then why is Cox' WAR only 10.1? Yes, he was a light hitter. From what I have read here, however, being at the top of your game defensively should serve to boost up your WAR.

Looking at Cox' fielding stats, it certainly doesn't show him as a league leader. Could all of those people who would have had an educated opinion and witnessed him in action be as wrong about him as his pitiful WAR would suggest? I'd venture not. Single season WAR totals are awful. So, what wasn't he doing? Or, dare I say it, is WAR not an ironclad formula to fairly rate every single player?

Is it all in the fact that he wasn't prone to being played throughout entire seasons? It may be apples and oranges for all I know, but look at Riggs Stephenson. He's another player who had some fancy stats (of course, remembered more for his BA) but struggled with games played each season. Still, his WAR is 32.8.

I agree with a lot of what you've said. I believe WAR does not and can not include the total value of a player when compared to his peers. There are intangibles that can not be quantified. If you've participated in team sports, you know who you value as a teammate considering everything you see day in and day out about that teammate. Peer evaluations have value. Just like WAR, they help to give us a clearer picture of the value of a player to his team.

BillyCoxDodgers3B · #9 11-17-2024, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GaryPassamonte

I agree with a lot of what you've said. I believe WAR does not and can not include the total value of a player when compared to his peers. There are intangibles that can not be quantified. If you've participated in team sports, you know who you value as a teammate considering everything you see day in and day out about that teammate. Peer evaluations have value. Just like WAR, they help to give us a clearer picture of the value of a player to his team.

Yes.

Going by WAR alone, Cox would appear to possess none of the skill that was always lauded by the teammates whose stardom forever outshone him. He was quiet and unassuming both on and off the field. He spoke with his glove.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #10 11-17-2024, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

Since Bobby Grich retired, can you think of a second baseman elected to the HOF for his glove?

Mazeroski who is a near analogue of Frank White and nobody is talking about putting White in.

BillyCoxDodgers3B · #11 11-17-2024, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Mazeroski who is a near analogue of Frank White and nobody is talking about putting White in.

Let's not open the can of worms that is Mazeroski. Maris is more deserving for his season in the sun as opposed to a moment in time, but he doesn't belong, either.

paul · #12 11-17-2024, 12:57 PM

Mazeroski wasn't elected for his home run. He was elected for being the greatest fielding second baseman of all time.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #13 11-18-2024, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

Let's not open the can of worms that is Mazeroski. Maris is more deserving for his season in the sun as opposed to a moment in time, but he doesn't belong, either.

Agreed. I mean if I'm starting a team and I can have either Frank White or Bill Mazeroski I'm not mad, but not for the Hall.

HistoricNewspapers · #14 11-20-2024, 12:36 PM

WAR certainly has many faults. However, Grich and Sandberg are not that far off each other one way or another. As stated above, WAR represents what the player does over his position in his league. Grich played in more years where offense was down(especially at his position).

OPS+ is similar in regard to measuring against your own league average(but not position).

Grich has a 125 OPS+
Sandberg has a 116 OPS+

Sandberg did that in about 1,000 more career plate appearances so then if you add that it closes the gap a little, but still when compared vs their league average Grich would still be superior hitting wise.

If you want to ignore the league context, then lifetime:

Grich .794 OPS
Sandberg .795 OPS

So ignoring the league run scoring environment, you see that they are about as equal as you can be hitting wise.

Keep in mind that OPS+ and WAR do account for home field hitting advantage. Sandberg did hit in the friendly confines and it wasn't called that for nothing in that time period. Run scoring certainly got a boost from Wrigley.

Sandberg lifetime:

Home OPS .853
Road OPS .738

That is a stark difference. So if someone wants to ignore any park adjustments from WAR or OPS+, then it would be equally right to state that without Wrigley that Sandberg really is a .738 hitter compared to Grich's .795

Grich for his career played in some pitchers parks and his lifetime home/road are .796 to .793. Usually home hitting is higher than road for hitters.

So if one wants to just ignore any of the more accurate measurements that put Grich and Sandberg in the same level, then again, it is just as fair to say without Wrigley that Sandberg does not even compare to Grich.

Now, keep in mind, just looking at home/road splits isn't the only step. OPS+ takes further steps to make those park adjustments more reasonable, and even with that, Grich is sill superior.

There is more to the equation such as baserunning and fielding of course, but the hitting is the lions share of the value(considering they were both superior fielders).

In the end, you need to look further. If you look at the more accurate stats that represent the value(including baserunning and men on base hitting).

Sandberg has a lifetime Win Probability Added of 27.7 wins above average
Grich is 19.9

Sandberg has a lifetime Run Expectancy of 325 runs above average.
Grich is 227.

That 100 run difference in run expectancy really is what separates Sandberg and Grich, and that includes all components of offense and park factors.

Defensively I would give the edge to Sandberg too.

In the end, Sandberg is superior, but it isn't surprising to put Grich in the same level until you look at the more advanced and accurate Run Expectancy numbers that push Sandberg to a higher offensive level to go with his defense advantage.

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