First $Billion$ Player....Elly de la Cruz?

[Balticfox]

I'll be impressed when Elly de la Cruz becomes the new Charlie Hustle in Cincinnati and starts running hard to first after a walk. I'm surprised that the Reds' Manager Francona and player captains haven't made that a team rule yet.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

I'll be impressed when Elly de la Cruz becomes the new Charlie Hustle in Cincinnati and starts running hard to first after a walk. I'm surprised that the Reds' Manager Francona and player captains haven't made that a team rule yet.

It's the Robinson Cano rule.

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[nat]

CPI for the past year was 2.7%, excluding food and energy it was 3.3%. Call it three percent. Assuming 3% annual inflation over the next six years, if Soto had signed his contract in 2030, it would be worth about $910m.

(Or $861 if the Fed hits their 2% target.)

If we bake-in expected inflation between now and when the baseball execs are predicting a billion dollar player, Soto is already pretty close. They're really predicting an increase in baseball salaries of about 10-15% in real terms over the next six years. That's not a very aggressive prediction. Six years ago Mike Trout had the top salary, at $34m; David Price and Miguel Cabrera were at $30m. Those are still healthy salaries, but not at the top of the scales anymore. This past year there were four players above $40, and tenth place was Giancarlo Stanton at $32.

As for who it will be: my guess is no one currently active. They would need to be a free agent you would want to sign for 15 years (or more), which means they would need to hit free agency extremely young. De la Cruz will be 28. He's great and all, but it's hard to imagine someone wanting to sign him through age 43. Gunnar Henderson has been better so far, but is a year older (so doesn't benefit from an extra year of salary inflation). Skenes is the same age as de la Cruz, but it's hard to imagine a 15 year contract for a pitcher. It's got to be someone who isn't in the majors yet.

[Seven]

There are few, if any players in the history of Free Agency that would ever approach 1 Billion. Soto was one of them. Generational hitting talent, but lacking in the field/on the base paths. I said this before in the Soto thread, I truly don't think any player is worth that amount, but I'm beating a dead horse.

Within the Last 25 years? I think small group of players, had they played in todays game/financial climate would get the Billion dollar contract, had they hit free agency at the age of 25. Trout and ARod both come to mind, as the numbers they were putting up their first few seasons in the big leagues were absurd and they were both five tool threats. Albert Pujols as well, based off of his offensive production alone, as he set the world on fire offensively the moment he entered the league, and would've most likely have won 2-3 MVPs had it not been for Barry Bonds.

Point is, I do not think Elly will sniff 1 Billion Dollars. He's not in that category.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Seven

There are few, if any players in the history of Free Agency that would ever approach 1 Billion. Soto was one of them. Generational hitting talent....

Hmmmm, Juan Soto's batting averages in the last two years were .275 and .288 and he had 68 and 76 multi-base hits respectively in those two years. If Soto's a "generational hitting talent", you'll have to forgive this old guy for sneering at today's younger generation.

Speaking of Soto as part of the current generation of ballplayers though, I hope most of them are in better shape. I actually have more of a six pack than does Soto and I'm close to three times his age!

[packs]

Soto is most definitely a generational talent. He is 25 years old and has 7 seasons in the MLB behind him already. The list of players who can say the same is very small.

In that time he has won 5 Silver Sluggers, the World Series, a batting title, and has averaged 6.3 WAR per season, along with an average OPS of 953 and an average OPS+ of 160.

That is not only a HOFer, but a tier 1 all time talent.

Don't get too hung up on batting average. Luis Arraez has led the league in hitting the last three seasons but I don't think anyone considers him a generational talent.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by packs

Soto is most definitely a generational talent. He is 25 years old and has 7 seasons in the MLB behind him already. The list of players who can say the same is very small.

In that time he has won 5 Silver Sluggers, the World Series, a batting title, and has averaged 6.3 WAR per season, along with an average OPS of 953 and an average OPS+ of 160.

That is not only a HOFer, but a tier 1 all time talent.

Don't get too hung up on batting average. Luis Arraez has led the league in hitting the last three seasons but I don't think anyone considers him a generational talent.

Yup. People getting carried away with old-timey thoughts about Arraez to. "A throw back", "A real hitter", "How a hitter should always be". Don't get me wrong. He's a nice little player. "Professional Hitter" as they say....but he's Ralph Garr 2.0. Mid-career Ichiro without the speed or defense. That's about it.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by packs

Soto is most definitely a generational talent. He is 25 years old and has 7 seasons in the MLB behind him already. The list of players who can say the same is very small.

In that time he has won 5 Silver Sluggers, the World Series, a batting title, and has averaged 6.3 WAR per season, along with an average OPS of 953 and an average OPS+ of 160.

That is not only a HOFer, but a tier 1 all time talent.

Just one batting title in seven years? Nor has he even been in contention for the batting title in the last three years. And I noticed that you neglected to mention the Golden Gloves Soto has won. I suspect there may be some reason for that.

My standards for "generational talent" and "tier 1 all time talent" are either higher than yours or pickings are rather slim these days. Looking no further than New York, I'd have to say Aaron Judge fits those descriptions better.

Originally Posted by packs

Don't get too hung up on batting average.

Huh?! Is that possible?

Originally Posted by packs

Luis Arraez has led the league in hitting the last three seasons but I don't think anyone considers him a generational talent.

No, Luis Arraez isn't a generational talent. I will say that he's grossly underrated though. It's probably a media thing because he's not playing in New York or Los Angeles.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Hmmmm, Juan Soto's batting averages in the last two years were .275 and .288 and he had 68 and 76 multi-base hits respectively in those two years. If Soto's a "generational hitting talent", you'll have to forgive this old guy for sneering at today's younger generation.

Speaking of Soto as part of the current generation of ballplayers though, I hope most of them are in better shape. I actually have more of a six pack than does Soto and I'm close to three times his age!

Sigh, what's his OBP those seasons?

Talking about 6 packs, LOL. I hope you're not one of those who wax poetically about how superior Babe Ruth is to everybody today.

Don't remember Tony Gwynn or Wade Boggs having 6 packs either.

But yeah, some asshole called him a thug in the YouTube comments once....

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Sigh, what's his OBP those seasons?

Here, I'll be kind enough to look it up for you - .410 in 2023 and .419 in 2024.

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Talking about 6 packs, LOL.... Don't remember Tony Gwynn or Wade Boggs having 6 packs either.

Nor did they ask for private boxes in contract negotiations.

And shouldn't any such comparison also be age adjusted? A professional athlete (especially in this day and age) should be in peak physical condition at the age of 26.

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I hope you're not one of those who wax poetically about how superior Babe Ruth is to everybody today.

Certainly not! I might wax poetic about Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, Stan Musial or Roberto Clemente, but only benighted Yankee fans would wax poetic about "The Big Baboon".

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

But yeah, some asshole called him a thug in the YouTube comments once....

I won't call Juan Soto a thug. I will call him lazy, out-of-shape, over entitled and overrated though. And I wish he'd gotten his private suite at Yankee Stadium and stayed with the New York Yankees. I've been a Yankee hater since grade one and I'm always glad to add another reason!