Sports Card Dealers on the Triumphs and Challenges of 2024

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

I guess my other takeaway is that there are probably a lot more crypto bros in the Pokeman market than there are in vintage.

Thank goodness for that, pre-war is already too expensive.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Thank goodness for that, pre-war is already too expensive.

Exactly, we just have to go against Silicon Valley, Wall Street, doctor, and lawyer money in our space.

Thank goodness for that!

[3-2-count]

I sure haven't witnessed this downward trend on the pre war material that I'm buying.

[bandrus1]

low population 19th century sure seems expensive

[brunswickreeves]

There are 100 individual cards I’ve tracked from ‘18-‘24: 32 pre-war and 68 post-war. Excluding 2019, these collectively have outperformed both the S&P and Dow, with cards averaging a 41% return (gross). Of these, pre-war is approx 10% points average greater than post-war.

A good 2024 or any year will depend on volume, turnover velocity, ROI, opportunity cost, and intangibles like goodwill, etc. I hope for dealers to have continued prosperity, because it enables more acquisition opportunities for collectors and investors.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

There are 100 individual cards I’ve tracked from ‘18-‘24: 32 pre-war and 68 post-war. Excluding 2019, these collectively have outperformed both the S&P and Dow, with cards averaging a 41% return (gross). Of these, pre-war is approx 10% points average greater than post-war.

A good 2024 or any year will depend on volume, turnover velocity, ROI, opportunity cost, and intangibles like goodwill, etc. I hope for dealers to have continued prosperity, because it enables more acquisition opportunities for collectors and investors.

Do you mind posting what 100 cards are in this chart?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

I sure haven't witnessed this downward trend on the pre war material that I'm buying.

It only applies to cards we sell.

[brunswickreeves]

Per request for examples, below are some of each for pre and post-war per player. This is a point in time over the ‘18-‘24 horizon, so there may have been better returns outside the scope of this data set (excludes significant outliers such as 52 Topps Mantle and T206 Wagner).

[Rhotchkiss]

From someone who has sold a shit-ton of blue(er) chip, prewar vintage this year (2024), I can tell you almost everything is down from this time last year, and likely 20% from 2022. And I think prices have come down over the course of 2024 (the same card sold for more in February than in November). This includes Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, and other big names. Other than super-high grades, all t206s are down and rare backs are down a ton from 2021-2022; likely thanks first to the David Hall auctions and then from the Brady Hill floods of 2023 in PWCC and Heritage.

Some things are up, however. These include 1914 and 1915 cracker jacks, D304s, super tough backs and/or rare cards of blue chip HOFers (other than t206), and super high grade examples of key sets, like t206 and 33 Goudey.

I think the “white glove collector” is still buying and paying whatever it takes to get what they want. Otherwise, I think things have come down a good deal over the past year. Demand remains strong, which means values remain solid - so hardly a bubble or a crash.

I did very well selling this year, but mostly because of profits made on pre 2020 purchases. I think I took a loss on half the items I acquired in the past two years.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

From someone who has sold a shit-ton of blue(er) chip, prewar vintage this year (2024), I can tell you almost everything is down from this time last year, and likely 20% from 2022. And I think prices have come down over the course of 2024 (the same card sold for more in February than in November). This includes Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, and other big names. Other than super-high grades, all t206s are down and rare backs are down a ton from 2021-2022; likely thanks first to the David Hall auctions and then from the Brady Hill floods of 2023 in PWCC and Heritage.

Some things are up, however. These include 1914 and 1915 cracker jacks, D304s, super tough backs and/or rare cards of blue chip HOFers (other than t206), and super high grade examples of key sets, like t206 and 33 Goudey.

I think the “white glove collector” is still buying and paying whatever it takes to get what they want. Otherwise, I think things have come down a good deal over the past year. Demand remains strong, which means values remain solid - so hardly a bubble or a crash.

I did very well selling this year, but mostly because of profits made on pre 2020 purchases. I think I took a loss on half the items I acquired in the past two years.

Ryan, thank you for your insight. Your transparency is a gift for this board. Data, charts, etc. is great. First hand lived experience is unmatched.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It only applies to cards we sell.

All day long.