Hobby Hustle Documentary 2-16-25

[raulus]

Originally Posted by toppcat

All well and good but as always, nothing will result.

Maybe it will further drive more business to the TPGs if a flood of people get scared about potential fakes without realizing that the TPGs are far from infallible on this score?

[Snowman]

That may have been the worst documentary I've ever seen. Actually, yes. Yes, that was the worst documentary I've ever seen.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Maybe it will further drive more business to the TPGs if a flood of people get scared about potential fakes without realizing that the TPGs are far from infallible on this score?

Speaking of which.
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1606079

[Brent G.]

This thing could’ve been an hour shorter, and it wasn’t the cleanest job of spinning three stories into one, but it was decent hobby entertainment.

[homerunhitter]

Makes me wonder if autographs authenticated by a TPA such as PSA are a safe bet going forward. Maybe I’ll just focus on the topps certified and the upper deck legendary cuts autographs instead. At least those are more likely to be “real”.

[tjisonline]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Makes me wonder if autographs authenticated by a TPA such as PSA are a safe bet going forward. Maybe I’ll just focus on the topps certified and the upper deck legendary cuts autographs instead. At least those are more likely to be “real”.

I don’t think anything is safe with third party autographs except for those items people know for a fact were signed by athletes. Assume that’s why we always have to remember authenticated autographs or just an opinion.

We probably staring at the tip of an autographed card scandal. Plus it’s not all by scrupulous people. It’s been known for decades that famous athletes such as Willie Mays had their wives signed check, letters, and autographs. Then we hear stories about operational bullpen, the recent alleged Jason Kelce signing scandal w/ a Beckett employee involved.

people are buying the seller much more so than autograph. For example, I didn’t feel comfortable purchasing my signed 1969 Topps Mickey Mantle until the seller shared old pictures of the card being signed at the 1989 East Coast national with him in the frame w/ Mick. In the last year, I had 3 Koufax cards signed; all coordinated by cardboard legends so fingers crossed even if they are slapped.

[homerunhitter]

Originally Posted by tjisonline

I don’t think anything is safe with third party autographs except for those items people know for a fact were signed by athletes. Assume that’s why we always have to remember authenticated autographs or just an opinion.

We probably staring at the tip of an autographed card scandal. Plus it’s not all by scrupulous people. It’s been known for decades that famous athletes such as Willie Mays had their wives signed check, letters, and autographs. Then we hear stories about operational bullpen, the recent alleged Jason Kelce signing scandal w/ a Beckett employee involved.

people are buying the seller much more so than autograph. For example, I didn’t feel comfortable purchasing my signed 1969 Topps Mickey Mantle until the seller shared old pictures of the card being signed at the 1989 East Coast national with him in the frame w/ Mick. In the last year, I had 3 Koufax cards signed; all coordinated by cardboard legends so fingers crossed even if they are slapped.

Iceberg straight ahead! Ring the bell, ring the bell! Sound the alarm! This cannot be good for the hobby. I agree with you my friend. It might get to a point where only topps certified autographs will be safe (mostly)

[bk400]

The funniest part of the documentary was when Jeffrey Lichtman (wearing a Glock T-shirt, no less) is talking about the high profile clients he's defended, contrasts it with his passion for baseball cards, and goes, "...and that's why I'm here...there's no other explanation for why a lawyer, doing the stuff I do, would ever be at -- [pauses and turns to gesture at the motley crew of card convention attendees] -- this ridiculous baseball card national for 3 days."

[gonefishin]

I watched it last night, very entertaining. The family from Black Swamp find came across as sincere and the real deal. I'm happy for them!

The only thing I would like to note is regarding the forger. I don't think I can believe anything this convicted felon says. He stated that PSA used one of his autographs as an exemplar. Really, why in the hell would anyone believe anything this man says? About the only thing I believed coming out of his mouth was that he was in charge of running the sports betting and gambling ring while in prison and had 16 people working for him. He is not rehabilitated, and just like a drug addict, will be back to his same way of life within a couple of years. I don't guess that actually getting a job ever crossed his mind. According to the detective, his father reached out and stated that he had told them to stop doing the forgeries, but they didn't. The mother was complicit. I think everyone involved should have been sent to prison, not given probation that several received.

The conspiracy theories around the Black Swamp find, in my opinion, is nothing but bull crap. I for one celebrate the find and wish nothing but the best for the family.

Since "The Curse of Oak Island" wasn't shown last night, this served as a good filler.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by tjisonline

I don’t think anything is safe with third party autographs except for those items people know for a fact were signed by athletes. Assume that’s why we always have to remember authenticated autographs or just an opinion.

We probably staring at the tip of an autographed card scandal. Plus it’s not all by scrupulous people. It’s been known for decades that famous athletes such as Willie Mays had their wives signed check, letters, and autographs. Then we hear stories about operational bullpen, the recent alleged Jason Kelce signing scandal w/ a Beckett employee involved.

people are buying the seller much more so than autograph. For example, I didn’t feel comfortable purchasing my signed 1969 Topps Mickey Mantle until the seller shared old pictures of the card being signed at the 1989 East Coast national with him in the frame w/ Mick. In the last year, I had 3 Koufax cards signed; all coordinated by cardboard legends so fingers crossed even if they are slapped.

After my return to the hobby a few years ago, I've come to realize that some suspension of disbelief is required to enjoy myself. I know in the back of my mind that there is a chance that the authenticated autograph that I buy is fake. I just purchased a bunch of non-authenticated autographed 1986 Topps Mets cards. I'd like to think that no one is going to bother forging Kevin Mitchell's autograph for a $5 profit, but who knows. I still enjoy the cards for what (I think) they are.

Same with the graded cards. I collect Ozzie Smith, and not to cast aspersions on anyone who might own one, but none of the PSA 10 examples of the 1979 Topps rookie card are as good to the naked eye test as the more recently graded 9s -- but the 10s still sell for 10-50x the price of the 9s, if and when they come up for sale. But yet most of the hobby still values (literally) the opinion of third party graders and, presumably, still enjoys collecting graded cards.

I don't love the potential for fakes and some of the fallacies inherent to third party grading, but I think it's just he mental price of being in the hobby, unfortunately.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by bk400

After my return to the hobby a few years ago, I've come to realize that some suspension of disbelief is required to enjoy myself. I know in the back of my mind that there is a chance that the authenticated autograph that I buy is fake. I just purchased a bunch of non-authenticated autographed 1986 Topps Mets cards. I'd like to think that no one is going to bother forging Kevin Mitchell's autograph for a $5 profit, but who knows. I still enjoy the cards for what (I think) they are.

Same with the graded cards. I collect Ozzie Smith, and not to cast aspersions on anyone who might own one, but none of the PSA 10 examples of the 1979 Topps rookie card are as good to the naked eye test as the more recently graded 9s -- but the 10s still sell for 10-50x the price of the 9s, if and when they come up for sale. But yet most of the hobby still values (literally) the opinion of third party graders and, presumably, still enjoys collecting graded cards.

I don't love the potential for fakes and some of the fallacies inherent to third party grading, but I think it's just he mental price of being in the hobby, unfortunately.

Sadly scammers will line up around the block to sell $5 counterfeit autographs. I emailed with former MLBer Brian Holman for a few years. He has/had an amazing collection and he bought a few silly rare cards of himself I had. Brian will go out of his way to sign anything for free. Saying that I have seen a ton of his fake autos that sell for less than $5 each on eBay over the years. There is almost no risk in selling cheap fake autographs.

[homerunhitter]

Originally Posted by bk400

After my return to the hobby a few years ago, I've come to realize that some suspension of disbelief is required to enjoy myself. I know in the back of my mind that there is a chance that the authenticated autograph that I buy is fake. I just purchased a bunch of non-authenticated autographed 1986 Topps Mets cards. I'd like to think that no one is going to bother forging Kevin Mitchell's autograph for a $5 profit, but who knows. I still enjoy the cards for what (I think) they are.

Same with the graded cards. I collect Ozzie Smith, and not to cast aspersions on anyone who might own one, but none of the PSA 10 examples of the 1979 Topps rookie card are as good to the naked eye test as the more recently graded 9s -- but the 10s still sell for 10-50x the price of the 9s, if and when they come up for sale. But yet most of the hobby still values (literally) the opinion of third party graders and, presumably, still enjoys collecting graded cards.

I don't love the potential for fakes and some of the fallacies inherent to third party grading, but I think it's just he mental price of being in the hobby, unfortunately.

Very good points. I also feel that being worried all of the time would make collecting not fun. I guess another way to look at it is, as long as it’s been “blessed” authentic by PSA, it will sell (someone in the future will always but it if it’s in a slab already authenticated by PSA.)

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by tjisonline

I don’t think anything is safe with third party autographs except for those items people know for a fact were signed by athletes. Assume that’s why we always have to remember authenticated autographs or just an opinion.

We probably staring at the tip of an autographed card scandal. Plus it’s not all by scrupulous people. It’s been known for decades that famous athletes such as Willie Mays had their wives signed check, letters, and autographs. Then we hear stories about operational bullpen, the recent alleged Jason Kelce signing scandal w/ a Beckett employee involved.

This is why I stayed away from signed vintage for as long as I did. I've always thought it was hilarious that people think anyone, even the best, can determine with any sort of accuracy at all whether or not a signature is authentic. I would love to see a confusion matrix from a large sample of known authentic and fake autos. I think it would blow everyone's minds.

Bad fakes are obviously easy to detect. I'm sure some signatures are difficult to duplicate, but I'd wager good money that a large percentage of the people reading this thread could duplicate a Mickey Mantle signature after practicing it for an hour and could get it past authentication nearly every time. I know he signed a lot, but I don't think he signed nearly as much as what's out there today. I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that half of all signed Mantle cards are fake.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I'd wager good money that a large percentage of the people reading this thread could duplicate a Mickey Mantle signature after practicing it for an hour and could get it past authentication nearly every time.

Please tell me you're simply pulling our legs with that statement. As someone who has spent nearly his entire life in the study of vintage baseball autographs, I really want to believe that's the case.

If you were serious, and I pray you weren't, perhaps you may wish to conduct that experiment yourself and see how you fare. I would definitely advise against that, but it would certainly be interesting.

[balltrash]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Bad fakes are obviously easy to detect. I'm sure some signatures are difficult to duplicate, but I'd wager good money that a large percentage of the people reading this thread could duplicate a Mickey Mantle signature after practicing it for an hour and could get it past authentication nearly every time. I know he signed a lot, but I don't think he signed nearly as much as what's out there today. I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that half of all signed Mantle cards are fake.

Standing offer of $500 cash to any member of this board who can forge a Mickey Mantle autograph and get it authenticated by PSA, JSA, or Beckett. Forward me a video of you doing the forging and the piece after it is authenticated and it will evidently be the easiest money you have ever made given that it should only take an hour to perfect.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Brent G.

This thing could’ve been an hour shorter, and it wasn’t the cleanest job of spinning three stories into one, but it was decent hobby entertainment.

Just one hour shorter? I counted 2.5 at least

[oldjudge]

I saw the documentary last night and agree with those saying it was pretty bad. The forger who is a big part of the show is scarey good though. After seeing him and based on my own limited experience with autograph authentication I think anyone who relies on authenticators to tell them if their autographs are good is, to put it kindly, rolling the dice. My experience is the opposite of most. I had an autograph which was 100% good called fake by PSA. The history of this is in the mid-1990s I hosted customer dinners and would have star athletes present for the customers to meet. One customer dinner was with Jim Brown. As part of the evening the athlete would take pictures with guests and autograph things for them. When Jim was there we had Browns mini-helmets to get autographs on. I got a few extras signed to send to any customers who were unable to attend but wanted one. Fast forward to last year. I had an extra left in my closet and I consigned it to LOTG game. Not a big item, probably worth $100-$200, but I didn't need it and I thought someone might like it. Al sent it to PSA for authentication and it came back bad. Not only did they say it was bad but they had a laundry list of things that they said was wrong with it (Al sent me their analysis). Makes me pretty skeptical of the process.