Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

Rhotchkiss · #1 03-12-2025, 10:55 AM

The poll asks: Do stock market losses impact YOUR buying habits. However, Leon’s first post asks: Does the stock market impact prices of prewar cards. These are two very different questions. It’s very possible that the stock market could impact overall values but have no impact on an individual’s buying habits.

I feel the health of the stock market must impact the overall health of the card market - people spend more when they feel wealthy and spend less when they feel less wealthy. That said, cards are an asset class (not just hobby) and may serve as a haven (like gold) when the market is down. So I don’t think the correlation is that easy.

To me, it’s economic and political uncertainty more than where the stock market is going. Given current events, do I want wealth in stock, cardboard, real estate, cash, private equity, etc. Diversity is likely the smartest move, but I am heavy real estate - you cannot live in or off a card, stock, or cash. The big question is whether I invest in other countries, and if so, which one(s). Or put differently, when does it make sense to hedge against traditional US investments.

Leon · #2 03-12-2025, 01:56 PM

Duly noted and changed the post wording to more reflect the poll question.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The poll asks: Do stock market losses impact YOUR buying habits. However, Leon’s first post asks: Does the stock market impact prices of prewar cards. These are two very different questions. It’s very possible that the stock market could impact overall values but have no impact on an individual’s buying habits.

I feel the health of the stock market must impact the overall health of the card market - people spend more when they feel wealthy and spend less when they feel less wealthy. That said, cards are an asset class (not just hobby) and may serve as a haven (like gold) when the market is down. So I don’t think the correlation is that easy.

To me, it’s economic and political uncertainty more than where the stock market is going. Given current events, do I want wealth in stock, cardboard, real estate, cash, private equity, etc. Diversity is likely the smartest move, but I am heavy real estate - you cannot live in or off a card, stock, or cash. The big question is whether I invest in other countries, and if so, which one(s). Or put differently, when does it make sense to hedge against traditional US investments.

raulus · #3 03-12-2025, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The big question is whether I invest in other countries, and if so, which one(s). Or put differently, when does it make sense to hedge against traditional US investments.

To what extent do you think that large cap US equities cover you here?

It just seems like most of the big companies do so much business around the world and have assets and operations all over the globe that you should be able to get decent coverage that way.

Of course, it's one thing to operate in another country, and another thing to be a local business that is near and dear to the hearts of the local populace and governing class. So there can definitely be some different profiles that way.

Rhotchkiss · #4 03-12-2025, 02:57 PM

Decent question. I suppose large caps have foreign risk mitigation, but they are still highly subject to whims of the US. Nevertheless, I am not really thinking stock. More direct investment in real estate or a foreign company. Or holding cash in foreign currencies.

Republicaninmass · #5 03-12-2025, 03:28 PM

Iraqi dinars?

Foreign large caps and Lat am plays

Balticfox · #6 03-12-2025, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I feel the health of the stock market must impact the overall health of the card market - people spend more when they feel wealthy and spend less when they feel less wealthy.

It is though a mistake to conflate the "health" of any hobby with the loftiness of prices.

BobbyStrawberry · #7 03-12-2025, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balticfox

It is though a mistake to conflate the "health" of any hobby with the loftiness of prices.

Agreed.

bk400 · #8 03-13-2025, 06:26 AM

https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumer...hare_permalink

I stated my views on Leon's question early in this thread. Key takeaway from the article above is that consumer spending from basic food and other staples to airline tickets is down substantially quarter to date, and it appears to cut across all income levels. Maybe baseball cards are different, but I suspect not.

In my mind, the argument for this recent period of volatility being "just another blip" are clear.

But I personally believe that the US equities market, as well as underlying consumers, are pricing in the risk that America's geopolitical primacy is coming to an end. That risk was priced in as zero from 1950 through 2024. The markets -- and the consumer -- aren't pricing that risk at zero today. So is it different this time? Who knows. But I sure don't like what I'm seeing out there.

Yoda · #9 03-13-2025, 12:27 PM

I recently sold a nice autographed Geordy Howe class 1 foto to a Canadian friend of mine. Do I have to charge him a tariff? Concerned Patriot.

Balticfox · #10 03-13-2025, 01:24 PM

No. But the Canadian government may at Customs & Immigration.

jingram058 · #11 03-13-2025, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balticfox

No. But the Canadian government may at Customs & Immigration.

And rightfully so.

View Poll Results: Do the stock market losses play into your vintage buys?
Yes	95	25.33%
No	230	61.33%
Sometimes	50	13.33%
Voters: 375. You may not vote on this poll

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