Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that the people who paid those prices aren't sweating a bear market.

It's always fun to speculate. And you could definitely be right. Someone who can afford to drop 6 figures on a single piece of cardboard might have 8 or 9 figures sitting in a bank account somewhere, and so therefore they have plenty of cushion, and don't really care what happens to stocks.

On the other hand, they might be living a lot closer to the financial edge than we might assume.

Personally, I tend to go the other way, and assume that whoever is paying this much for cardboard must have lots of assets tied up in the stock market that could be taking a beating now, which might cause them to sweat pretty hard.

A lot of it tends to stem from my general assumption that humans tend to act irrationally and emotionally, and our cardboard purchases are no exception to that general rule, with people buying cards that are a stretch financially, potentially because they are irrationally exuberant about their future wealth because they believe that either their cardboard or their other investments will keep going up in perpetuity.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Obviously one size is not going to fit every person paying these sorts of prices, but I would guess the vast majority are the type Adam describes. I.e., people to whom the money really is beside the point.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by raulus

On the other hand, they might be living a lot closer to the financial edge than we might assume.

Personally, I tend to go the other way, and assume that whoever is paying this much for cardboard must have lots of assets tied up in the stock market that could be taking a beating now, which might cause them to sweat pretty hard.

A lot of it tends to stem from my general assumption that humans tend to act irrationally and emotionally, and our cardboard purchases are no exception to that general rule, with people buying cards that are a stretch financially, potentially because they are irrationally exuberant about their future wealth because they believe that either their cardboard or their other investments will keep going up in perpetuity.

Well said, Raul.

When the pandemic boom started, everybody assumed that it was the "super-rich" or the "guys on Wall Street" who were driving up prices. But when the bubble burst, those same people started to dump their cards, which hurt prices even more. These guys couldn't make their mortgage payments or pay their line of credit and in the end they got destroyed. So, nope ... not rich ... only stupid ...

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Well said, Raul.

When the pandemic boom started, everybody assumed that it was the "super-rich" or the "guys on Wall Street" who were driving up prices. But when the bubble burst, those same people started to dump their cards, which hurt prices even more. These guys couldn't make their mortgage payments or pay their line of credit and in the end they got destroyed. So, nope ... not rich ... only stupid ...

Yes and no. The people who drove up the prices of cards with huge supplies react very differently than those who drove up the prices of rare cards. The former are much closer to commodities: abundant, in stock, continually offered for sale. Those kinds of items are sensitive to fluctuations because they are always available if you have the money, and people can and did plan their buying on a flipping model. If the market stalls out, they are left with a declining asset, and if they leveraged to get it, there will be blood in the marketplace when they sell. But a rare and desirable card will find its market and be hotly contested even as the rest falls, like all of the cards you listed. On the occasions when I've offered cards like that for sale, I stick to my price and I usually get it because I have no reason to negotiate.

[Fred]

Does anybody think that the recent market slide will affect bidding in the auctions that are active? Subconsciously?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Fred

Does anybody think that the recent market slide will affect bidding in the auctions that are active? Subconsciously?

Hard to imagine it induces bidders to be more aggressive. At best they might ignore it. Somewhere in the middle it might be a subconscious drag on those animal spirits driving people to bid like there’s no tomorrow. And on the other end, some bidders might deliberately pull back.

If the downdraft continues for a while and extends in intensity, it’s hard to imagine that it won’t have an effect.

Like most things in life, it’s a lot easier to identify once it’s happened. I guess we’ll see.

[Casey2296]

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Yep, y'all stay away from the two lots I'm bidding on tonight please.
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[raulus]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

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Yep, y'all stay away from the two lots I'm bidding on tonight please.
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I’ve had a few nice pickups of late at prices that I thought were a steal. Of course, our perception of what constitutes a steal has shifted over the last 5 years.

Always room to debate what was the trigger for any given outcome, of course. And just because I picked up a few nice deals doesn’t mean that there won’t be plenty that go the other way.

But maybe you’ll get lucky too.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

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Yep, y'all stay away from the two lots I'm bidding on tonight please.
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Which lots are those, so I can make sure to stay away from them?

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

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Yep, y'all stay away from the two lots I'm bidding on tonight please.
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I will, Phil, so long as you stay away from the one lot that I just gotta have!