Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[Peter_Spaeth]

I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.

As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.

As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine.

I should have been clearer - I was specifically asking about the bold part - "that it will be closer to 2 months than 2 years"

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.

As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine.

Reading the tea leaves of the market is like arguing about baseball, but my sense is that the market is pricing in the risk that there is neither strategy nor competence underpinning the tariff policies -- and that American institutions are losing their prestige both domestically and internationally. If "flight to quality" means a flight of capital to somewhere other than the US, then we have a very big problem.

I'm personally of the view that logic prevails over time, but I think the market isn't as confident about that than I am.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Japan stock market up 6 percent. Dow futures up 700 as we speak. The sky is not falling, yet anyhow.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Japan stock market up 6 percent. Dow futures up 700 as we speak. The sky is not falling, yet anyhow.

It’s the dead cat bounce!

Unless it’s not…

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

It’s the dead cat bounce!

Unless it’s not…

LOL. Exactly. Sometimes that dead cat keeps on bouncing doesn't he.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

LOL. Exactly. Sometimes that dead cat keeps on bouncing doesn't he.

Pretty big bounce today!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Pretty big bounce today!

Maybe the cat wasn't so dead after all.

[EddieP]

Originally Posted by raulus

Pretty big bounce today!

More like a Cat Zoomie.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Japan stock market up 6 percent. Dow futures up 700 as we speak. The sky is not falling, yet anyhow.

Japan has been bumped to negotiate. Vietnam wants a deal, but the administration wants more of something...whatever it is...

China is close to starting a currency devaluation war and they don't seem to be willing to play this game every country in the world is being forced to play.

The market spoke clearly yesterday on a mutli-thousand point bump based on a rumor and took that bump away just as quickly as it was deemed just a rumor. It's about the tariffs, and only the tariffs. That's the symptom and solution.

People are yearning for the floor. Any good news should bounce, but who knows what level of bad can erase it, minor or major.

Anyway, a there's a lot of savings accounts giving 3.7-4% right now and it's not swayed by the whims of whatever the hell is going on with forcefully trying to reset the world economic order for the hell of it. Well, China going to a currency war could force up inflation rates and eventually give better interest rates on savings.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

Japan has been bumped to negotiate. Vietnam wants a deal, but the administration wants more of something...whatever it is...

China is close to starting a currency devaluation war and they don't seem to be willing to play this game every country in the world is being forced to play.

The market spoke clearly yesterday on a mutli-thousand point bump based on a rumor and took that bump away just as quickly as it was deemed just a rumor. It's about the tariffs, and only the tariffs. That's the symptom and solution.

People are yearning for the floor. Any good news should bounce, but who knows what level of bad can erase it, minor or major.

Anyway, a there's a lot of savings accounts giving 3.7-4% right now and it's not swayed by the whims of whatever the hell is going on with forcefully trying to reset the world economic order for the hell of it. Well, China going to a currency war could force up inflation rates and eventually give better interest rates on savings.

I'm somewhat surprised that China hasn't (i) shut down Tesla's entire supply chain in China and (ii) started selling some Treasuries from its foreign currency reserves. I suppose that's a good sign.

[oldjudge]

Scott--the problem with PEs is that you are looking at numbers from two different periods. The E is something that came from months ago and the P is the current price reflecting what will happen going forward. Some countries may capitulate, but my sense is that most won't. More importantly, what happens to US companies. Trump needs to negotiate carve outs with them in exchange for domestic investment or this thing, in my opinion, will end up a lot worse than it even looks now. The longer this goes on the more difficult it will be for a Trump to save face and we all know how important that is to him. Will the market come back to its prior highs--I believe at some point it will. But that point could be a long way in the future. I wonder how those UAW workers who were at trump's announcement feel about their pension plans now.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I wonder how those UAW workers who were at trump's announcement feel about their pension plans now.