What is the (predicted) future of card grading services?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Why 3D printing? Since the originals are really not that old and the same technology still exists we are just lucky more are not making perfect "copies" that get by the graders.

I am going with AI grading being the norm as it would truly be fair. I see a lot of resistance from those making a ton off PSA or have a ton of cash into PSA cards but the time will come when the dumpster fire that is PSA will be gone or reinvented to an all AI grading company.

I think we are a long ways off from true AI grading on vintage cards. But it would be nice to take some of the idiocy, we see every day, out of it.

[jingram058]

There are algorithms for everything now. When I was in the Navy, one of my jobs was writing them to be used on static and moving satellite imagery in order to determine and forecast critical meteorological info for places that don't send out that info to us. I retired in 2007. I can only imagine the improvements and advancements since. Yes, in the next 10 years you very easily could see self-service card authentication and grading. Sure, there will be bugs to refine initially, as with every other new development. But imagine how it would affect the hobby. Even a graded card nay-sayer such as myself might change my tune.

[Musashi]

Neither of the two biggest challenges for AI grading are the coding (which isn't up to par yet, but will likely get there sooner rather than later). Rather, they are

1) Insufficient examples in each grade (especially for scarcer issues) to properly train the model. That's why none of the smaller companies trying to give digital grading a go (that I'm aware of) are doing vintage.

2) Will also require a leap forward in scanning technology. Surface wrinkles and light creases tend to disappear in scans made even by quality scanners. System can't grade what it can't see.

[90feetaway]

AI grading with an AI produced explanation as to why the grade received. Maybe declared value item of say $2,500 gets a human double check review, for an additional fee of course.

[swarmee]

Nothing will change. PSA consolidates power. Costs continue to rise.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Nothing will change. PSA consolidates power. Costs continue to rise.

Agree PSA will continue the Gold Standard. Pop and Registry will reign..Low pop vintage stars will continue to rise.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Musashi

Neither of the two biggest challenges for AI grading are the coding (which isn't up to par yet, but will likely get there sooner rather than later). Rather, they are

1) Insufficient examples in each grade (especially for scarcer issues) to properly train the model. That's why none of the smaller companies trying to give digital grading a go (that I'm aware of) are doing vintage.

2) Will also require a leap forward in scanning technology. Surface wrinkles and light creases tend to disappear in scans made even by quality scanners. System can't grade what it can't see.

1) I think if someone wanted to automate it would require splitting the grade, something I've always favored.
Automating how well the card is preserved I think is possible right now. There are scanning devices that generate a monochrome image of something in detail. From that you can get size, corner wear, creases, and surface. You don't really even need to know what set the card is from, other than to compare size. Picking up trims should also be possible for most sets.

Other things that influence the grade like centering and print flaws and stains etc are a different matter. My wife is in software and assures me that centering would be very easy given scans that were consistent. She also thinks that identification and spotting other flaws that would affect the grade are fairly easy. I have doubts...

2) A high dpi scan from a good scanner reveals a LOT of things, even stuff you can't readily see. 1200 dpi is amazing. But it's also slow and takes a lot of memory/storage

[bmattioli]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think we are a long ways off from true AI grading on vintage cards. But it would be nice to take some of the idiocy, we see every day, out of it.

Oh yea?? I called tonight to renegotiate my Sirius subscription and it was ALL AI driven. " Mary" Gave me a great deal and renewed for another year. It's coming everywhere and no stopping it..