Most Upside in Next 5 Years

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Can you even get a printed ticket from a modern game today? .... does that generation lose interest in them as collectibles?

As Jeff correctly pointed out, the question is the NEXT FIVE YEARS, meaning the next generation is largely irrelevant for purposes of this thread.

And no worries Hank, I have been called much worse!

[scooter729]

Since cards seems to be the most popular answer, I'd love to hear from folks about what sports have the most potential upside in that same five-year window.

I know most of us on this page are going to be biased towards baseball, but if we ruled out baseball, where do you see the most growth potential? Basketball (which saw exponential growth during Covid, much of which crashed back to earth quickly)? A sport like soccer with global appeal? Something else?

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by scooter729

Since cards seems to be the most popular answer, I'd love to hear from folks about what sports have the most potential upside in that same five-year window.

I know most of us on this page are going to be biased towards baseball, but if we ruled out baseball, where do you see the most growth potential? Basketball (which saw exponential growth during Covid, much of which crashed back to earth quickly)? A sport like soccer with global appeal? Something else?

Woman's basketball cards. They've had tremendous appreciation in the last few years and, based on scarcity, there is still plenty of room to go. The WNBA added a team this year, the first addition in a long time, and has two more scheduled to be added next year. Attendance at games has gone up a lot and television coverage has increased dramatically. Part of this began as the Caitlin Clark effect, and that got people in the door, but the quality of the product kept them there. A Clark 1/1 rookie(one of several different 1/1 rookies --does the Panini printing press ever stop?) went for almost $700,000 this year. I think that price is totally crazy but it does show that there is money out there with an interest in the woman's game.

[BioCRN]

Tickets and photos are def having a "moment" right now in popularity, especially photos most recently.

[Fred]

With every genre, will there be sub genres to them? For cards, there's rookie cards. For tickets, would it be 50 yard line seat for football, row 1 behind home plate for baseball? Ok, now I'm mocking this... sorry.

I don't trust autographs unless it's something that I'm near certain (JSA cert doesn't count) is authentic (Ruth passed away a bit before I was born so I couldn't get his in person).

I'm sticking with cards, but the poll is about "upside". How much more can cards increase?

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Fred

I'm sticking with cards, but the poll is about "upside". How much more can cards increase?

A constant--and reasonable--refrain for the last 50 years.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Woman's basketball cards. They've had tremendous appreciation in the last few years and, based on scarcity, there is still plenty of room to go. The WNBA added a team this year, the first addition in a long time, and has two more scheduled to be added next year. Attendance at games has gone up a lot and television coverage has increased dramatically. Part of this began as the Caitlin Clark effect, and that got people in the door, but the quality of the product kept them there. A Clark 1/1 rookie(one of several different 1/1 rookies --does the Panini printing press ever stop?) went for almost $700,000 this year. I think that price is totally crazy but it does show that there is money out there with an interest in the woman's game.

I find this hard to believe. I have NEVER heard any guys i know, many of whom are all big sports fans, ever talk about women’s sports and certainly never about women’s basketball. I scroll past it in the online papers. The players are unappealing. Can women and speculators pick up the slack? I have serious doubts.

I still say its cards. Baseball cards. Just has the deepest widest appeal. I wish it were hockey, and i have felt that hockey memorabilia is undervalued, especially older wool jerseys and photos, but i still think of hockey as a niche and though collectors are rabid, it doesnt have the spillover appeal (yet, there is always hope as they add more teams in more US cities.)

Everything feels a little frothy at the moment, so a lot of cards and memorabilia dont stand out as cheap today. This is all a relative argument. As long as we are cutting rates into a frothy time to keep the game going, the dollar is going down relative to hard assets including collectibles, so I think we are ok for the time being.

I have some tickets i have owned and collected. They remind me of a game i went to. Those used by others to attend big games do relatively little for me for reasons others have stated. But starting from a low base, they could certainly do well from here. The best ones though will have been used not issued, and then the condition wont be great (torn) if they were older and ripped on admittance…is that what happened to most?….and that would eliminate the condition upside for the most part, and the registry game that has driven a lot of the card upside.

[oldjudge]

Paul--You may find this hard to believe but it is true. The expansion Golden State Valkyries sold out every home game this year in an 18000+ seat arena. The Las Vegas Aces have had over 30 consecutive home sell outs. Valkyrie courtside tickets for next season are selling out at about $30,000 for a 22 game home season. Where it was rare to see games on TV in the past now virtually every game day has multiple WNBA games on. For the first time ever the woman's NCAA basketball tournament has outdrawn the men's. The fact that you and your friends are not now interested in the woman's game means that there is plenty more room for expansion of the fan base, a good thing for these collectibles.

[Mikehealer]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

For the first time ever the woman's NCAA basketball tournament has outdrawn the men's.

They did outdraw the men in 2024, but this year, like every other year, the men
more than doubled the women in viewership. 2024 was an outlier due to Caitlin Clark's participation in the game. I've been wrong many times, but I would be surprised if WNBA cards/memorabilia gained significant traction.

[ValKehl]

I'm an old fart who has been watching the NBA since the 1950's when I greatly enjoyed watching the Celtics teams with Bob Cousy, Bill Russell, et al. Other than possibly Jay M., I may be the only Net54er who prefers watching the WNBA to the NBA these years for various reasons, such as:
- WNBA players appear to play their hardest all the time, whereas NBA players seldom play their hardest until the playoffs.
- On the whole, I feel the WNBA teams exhibit more teamwork and less 1-on-1 play than the NBA teams.

[aelefson]

I have been wrong for the past 20 years, so I figure I will continue to be wrong, but I am always baffled that memorabilia and ephemera are so low valued compared to cards. I assumed that a lot of collectors would tire of cards and decide to pursue lemon peel balls, ring bats, or other displayable items and that those items would ultimately rise in value. Instead, most of the items I collect (like the above) are worth about what they were 20 years ago and some less. I still enjoy what I collect and am happy the prices are relatively stable/low as I have been able to add some incredible items for relatively small money (compared to cards).

One of my favorite examples is a 1933 All Star Game scorecard I own with Babe Ruth on the cover. There are not many known at least compared to most of his cards. I paid less than 500 for mine (it has condition issues) but even a nice went for about 3000 a couple of years ago. A 33 Goudey Ruth card in similarly nice condition sells for tens of thousands of dollars. I just do not understand the gap in price.

I do understand there are far more card collectors. I just assumed more would tire of that pursuit but I am doubtful enough ever will to change things. As I said, the relative affordability of memorabilia definitely allows me to have a deeper and larger collection than if I only collected cards.

To finally answer the question, I chose ephemera but probably should have chosen other (display memorabilia). Given my track record over the last twenty years though, I assume I am going to be wrong for the next five too.

Alan

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

As Jeff correctly pointed out, the question is the NEXT FIVE YEARS, meaning the next generation is largely irrelevant for purposes of this thread.

Duly noted.
So if we take:

A Joe Jackson ticket like the ones in your collection.

A Type 1 Joe Jackson photo

A 1914 CJ Jackson

IMHO they will all appreciate in the next 5 years, maybe 2x but that's just a guess, but I think the CJ appreciates a bit more than the other two.