Most Upside in Next 5 Years

[3-2-count]

My vote would be key type 1 photo's and key auto's on vintage cards.

[parkplace33]

Cards, specifically TCG and vintage non sports cards.

Non sports cards of Americana are very hot right now.

[Exhibitman]

That's true, Drew. I cannot believe the price jumps on some of those.

[RCMcKenzie]

52 Topps has always sold. I don't know why.

[bnorth]

I don't know the answer. I do know if everyone that posted in this thread gets together and picks a specific card as a group we can make it happen. In 4 years and 6 months from now if we each make one post a week about that card it will be the winner. If I have learned anything in this hobby it is how easy the prices are manipulated.

[Zach Wheat]

Originally Posted by sb1

While tickets might make a move up, I believe cards will still be king over them as well as autographs and other memorabilia. In a nutshell it is the visual aspect of the image on the card. Imagine the ticket which holds a lot of info and historical context on a Aaron or Mantle game and you could look at it or an early Aaron or Mantle card in your collection. As they say "a picture is worth a thousand words". Therefore, I believe the masses(which is what really drives any market), will still opt for the card. Sure a small percentage might opt for the auto, but it will be like many other areas of the market that are thinly traded, popularity trumps rarity.

I tend to agree with Scott here, in particular as it pertains to key cards/grades. I think the market for HOF and higher graded cards will do well

[Snapolit1]

Cards. There is a defined market for most cards, prices are reported, population reports exist, and enough demand to keep prices up. Other than stubs, the rest of this doesn't have an easily defined population. Keeps prices down.

(Many stubs I am sure are not graded.)

I watched a piece of memorabilia just sell for 15K a few days ago. In 2023 sold for 35K. Happens more often than you'd think.

Many people buy cards as an investment. I'd guess that 95%+ of people who drop $25,000 on a piece of memorabilia really want if and aren't "investors" or even interested in a resale.

[samosa4u]

I agree with the comments on here. Cards will always be king. But the younger crowd really likes them signed. So for example, buying a signed Koosman/Ryan rookie might be better than buying an unsigned one.

And I choose TYPE 1 photos over tickets. Tickets can't match their asthetic appeal.

[Snapolit1]

Lots of aesthetic appeal indeed.

Originally Posted by samosa4u

I agree with the comments on here. Cards will always be king. But the younger crowd really likes them signed. So for example, buying a signed Koosman/Ryan rookie might be better than buying an unsigned one.

And I choose TYPE 1 photos over tickets. Tickets can't match their asthetic appeal.

[oldjudge]

I like autographed cards from an investment perspective, but vintage autographs not modern. An old card with a fountain pen or ball point pen autograph is wonderful, but an early Mantle card with a sharpie autograph is in my mind a joke. It should be worth no more than the autograph and the card individually, and probably less.

[MVSNYC]

Hi Jay (hope you're well!), I think you mean something like this?

I get your point, but I like it, nonetheless.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Cards. There is a defined market for most cards, prices are reported, population reports exist, and enough demand to keep prices up. Other than stubs, the rest of this doesn't have an easily defined population. Keeps prices down.

(Many stubs I am sure are not graded.)

I watched a piece of memorabilia just sell for 15K a few days ago. In 2023 sold for 35K. Happens more often than you'd think.

Many people buy cards as an investment. I'd guess that 95%+ of people who drop $25,000 on a piece of memorabilia really want if and aren't "investors" or even interested in a resale.

Memorabilia can be tricky. Anything that is cool and maybe unique can vary a lot, and often trades so infrequently as to have no established market (off which someone might bid it up because it’s “obviously cheap”).

Photos i have bought and sold have done randomly.

I have had items like Virgil Trucks’s 1945 Tigers championship silver bowl, which i bought at probably a very full price at the National years ago because I was friends with Derek back then (his great nephew and world class guitarist) and thought it was cool and i might never see it again…i auctioned it last year and got 15% of what i paid. It was probably too cheap there but i was moving and wanted to cut down on some bulky items.

Then i also reauctioned a hockey banner of Johnny Bower and got 7x what i paid. Two guys fought over it in the bidding.

With memorabilia, you better love what you buy! I rarely buy memorabilia because i think it’s cheap. Might try that with cards, though.

I do think rarity and significance makes a lot of memorabilia cheaper than i think it should be, especially older gameworn jerseys (hockey and baseball).

[Snapolit1]

Derek Trucks is related to Virgil Trucks!!!! Hot Damm. Can't believe I've not heard that before! Awesome piece of info.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldpbTip2riE

[Fred]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I don't know the answer. I do know if everyone that posted in this thread gets together and picks a specific card as a group we can make it happen. In 4 years and 6 months from now if we each make one post a week about that card it will be the winner. If I have learned anything in this hobby it is how easy the prices are manipulated.

Say it aint so.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Derek Trucks is related to Virgil Trucks!!!! Hot Damm. Can't believe I've not heard that before! Awesome piece of info.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldpbTip2riE

How many people have this dual-signed ball? :-)

[darwinbulldog]

I assume if anyone else figured that out already the prices are now baked in, and cards are therefore no more or less likely to be a good investment than tickets or photos or anything else.

[nat]

I see three problems with equipment:

(1) a lot of it is large and hard to store. Even if I was in the market for a game used bat, I'd be in the market for, what, five of them? I've probably got room for one bat rack and then I'm out of wall space, or looking to move bookshelves or something. Jerseys take up closet space, and that's already at a premium. If you've got a big house with a dedicated man-cave you can make it work, but if you're pulling everyone without a dedicated man-cave out of the market, it's going to pull prices down.

(2) it's hard to commodify. One thing that grading does is it turns every XYZ card in such-and-such a PSA grade into one that is (all of us "buy the card not the holder" folks aside) identical to every other copy in that grade. This does a bunch of things. First, it helps with liquidity, which brings people into the market. (Consider that one reason to buy shares in a blue chip company instead of a sketchy penny stock is that you know you'll be able to sell them if you want.) Second, it allows people to very clearly see what would be an upgrade for them. If you've got a PSA X and a PSA X+1 is available, you might be interested in it. But if you've got an item that is different from a second in some incommensurable way, you may not be interested in the other. It won't come across as an upgrade. Third, commodification allows for competition (most notably in the registry). Which drives up prices. Maybe you can commodify modern game-used equipment, where there's enough, like, Miguel Cabrera bats (just picking a name, I don't know about him in particular) that you can regard each of his bats as interchangeable with every other one (aside from grade). But you can't do it with rarer stuff.

(3) At least for the older equipment, it's rare. Econ 101 will tell you that this will drive up price, but only to the extent that rarity doesn't drive down demand. I think one problem is that older stuff is rare enough to suppress demand. Maybe you're a fan of the Tigers and would like a game-used glove of every Tiger hall of famer. Good luck. That, I assume, you'll never find a lot of them might discourage you from ever getting started. A card or a photo, however, is doable, and so you're more likely to set out on that project, just because it can be done.

[Exhibitman]

I think Mr. Keeler's wisdom is applicable: hit 'em where they ain't. Figure out what hasn't gone up, get in, wait, sell, repeat. Of course, the low-hanging fruit is already gone, so it isn't an easy lift.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Hi Jay (hope you're well!), I think you mean something like this?

I get your point, but I like it, nonetheless.

Hi Mike! Don’t mean to piss in the punch bowl. I think it is neat to have a card that Mantle signed, but if it was a late sharpie autograph I think this is no more or less neat than any other Mantle signed item from the same period. Now a card with a period autograph is a great item, especially because Mantle was not always a willing signer during his playing days.

[Rhotchkiss]

I was at the Philly show yesterday, the place was alive. Very crowded and tons of vintage. This has established itself as the best show short of the national.

Anyway, there was one table that was nothing but soccer, cards and tickets. I walked by the table twice and both times there was nobody at or near the table. One would think that soccer could have legs given its global and recent local popularity, but if this table is a canary in a coal mine, soccer has a ways to go.

I saw several table with graded unopened packs. This is likely an underrated asset. There were several tables with tickets, one table was only tickets, but almost all tickets at the show were football or soccer; aside from the biggies (like Jim brown debut and immaculate reception, Pele debut etc), it seems like these sports have a ways to go before they hang with baseball (or basketball).

There was definitely pokeman, but really not that much. And a few tables with autos, memorabilia, pennants, and entertainment items, and all of these tables seemed to have traffic. Cards composed 80%+ of the tables and I would say 50%+ of those were vintage or had vintage cards.

Using only this show as a measuring stick, it seems like almost all areas of sports “stuff” is desired and popular (expect maybe soccer).

I also got to see a great app that Marc Mandel is developing that, among other things, helps you track auctions for cards you are interested in. I think this could be a great thing - at least I sure could use it- with so many auctions, including eBay, I find it very hard to follow and track who has what that interests me. I mention this because the popularity of the hobby has not only allowed an expansion of interests - from cards into photos, tickets, game used, etc. - but there is a tremendous amount of investment in products (especially technology) related/adjacent to collecting actual stuff.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I was at the Philly show yesterday, the place was alive. Very crowded and tons of vintage. This has established itself as the best show short of the national.

Anyway, there was one table that was nothing but soccer, cards and tickets. I walked by the table twice and both times there was nobody at or near the table. One would think that soccer could have legs given its global and recent local popularity, but if this table is a canary in a coal mine, soccer has a ways to go.

I saw several table with graded unopened packs. This is likely an underrated asset. There were several tables with tickets, one table was only tickets, but almost all tickets at the show were football or soccer; aside from the biggies (like Jim brown debut and immaculate reception, Pele debut etc), it seems like these sports have a ways to go before they hang with baseball (or basketball).

There was definitely pokeman, but really not that much. And a few tables with autos, memorabilia, pennants, and entertainment items, and all of these tables seemed to have traffic. Cards composed 80%+ of the tables and I would say 50%+ of those were vintage or had vintage cards.

Using only this show as a measuring stick, it seems like almost all areas of sports “stuff” is desired and popular (expect maybe soccer).

I also got to see a great app that Marc Mandel is developing that, among other things, helps you track auctions for cards you are interested in. I think this could be a great thing - at least I sure could use it- with so many auctions, including eBay, I find it very hard to follow and track who has what that interests me. I mention this because the popularity of the hobby has not only allowed an expansion of interests - from cards into photos, tickets, game used, etc. - but there is a tremendous amount of investment in products (especially technology) related/adjacent to collecting actual stuff.

Thanks for the insights, Ryan.

VCP tracks auctions too, no? It notifies when cards i am looking for are available. It covers eBay too i think.i hate bidding on EBAY, i dont do it anymore unless I absolutely need something which hasn’t happened.

The Philly show has always been fantastic for vintage. I wish i could have made it to this one.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I was at the Philly show yesterday

Did you pick anything up?

[brunswickreeves]

I was at the show today, place was absolutely slammed the entire time. The breadth and depth of vintage was amazing, and flowed like the salmon of Capistrano. Saw a T206 Eddie Plank for the first time-quite astounding in hand. A PSA rep also confirmed they do not use any AI to grade, it’s all by people. Lots of fathers and sons and also wives/sig others, was really inspiring to see the next generation wheeling and dealing. Bought a few packs of Disney cards for the fam, was happy to walk away without spending a small fortune, but was very tempted.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by nat

I see three problems with equipment:

Football helmets or catcher shinguards maybe, but I disagree regarding GU baseball flannel jerseys (and pants/hats/stirrup socks.)

Originally Posted by nat

(1) a lot of it is large and hard to store.

A tote with 20-25 flannel jerseys weighs maybe one tenth of a similar size tote filled with slabbed cards. A box with 4 or 5 flannels, individually bagged, takes up about the same space as a card binder, or 50 slabbed cards, and the jerseys weigh far less. This matters when enjoying a collection, and when buying or selling.

Originally Posted by nat

(2) it's hard to commodify. One thing that grading does is it turns every XYZ card in such-and-such a PSA grade into one that is (all of us "buy the card not the holder" folks aside) identical to every other copy in that grade... But you can't do it with rarer stuff.

Jerseys are professionally graded all the time, by SGC (Grob) and MEARS (formerly Grob, also Troy.) Reputable AHs describe jerseys accurately, noting restorations, repairs, team number changes, or all original condition. There are at least 2 great websites that have exemplars for most year/team/home-road combinations. Many jerseys have identifying tagging, denoting player, year, set, original uniform number, size, and of course manufacturer. Not to mention, past results archives from the dozen or more major AH that sometimes offer GU flannel. So, if a 1966 Mets road flannel becomes available, and a similar shirt from, say, 1968 sold recently, it can be used as a viable comp.

Originally Posted by nat

(3) At least for the older equipment, it's rare. Econ 101 will tell you that this will drive up price, but only to the extent that rarity doesn't drive down demand.

Flannels are somewhat scarce, but, except for the pre-1940 stuff, not rare. If the price on a quality shirt, like the 1948 Indians flannel that brought $5700 at Goldin this weekend, is considered strong, that indicates hobby strength. If that number looks like a bargain compared to bits of cardboard and ink that sell for much more, then it's a great opportunity.

If you're in Baltimore and walk into a man-cave, what are you going to be drawn to first? The glass display featuring a 2 1/2" by 3 1/2" mass produced picture of Brooks Robinson, printed by Topps in 1967, that has pointy corners, or a 1966 flannel worn by Dave McNally?

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Did you pick anything up?

Hi Paul. No, I did not buy anything. Dropped a few things off - some to auction and a couple things I sold privately.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Football helmets or catcher shinguards maybe, but I disagree regarding GU baseball flannel jerseys (and pants/hats/stirrup socks.)



A tote with 20-25 flannel jerseys weighs maybe one tenth of a similar size tote filled with slabbed cards. A box with 4 or 5 flannels, individually bagged, takes up about the same space as a card binder, or 50 slabbed cards, and the jerseys weigh far less. This matters when enjoying a collection, and when buying or selling.



Jerseys are professionally graded all the time, by SGC (Grob) and MEARS (formerly Grob, also Troy.) Reputable AHs describe jerseys accurately, noting restorations, repairs, team number changes, or all original condition. There are at least 2 great websites that have exemplars for most year/team/home-road combinations. Many jerseys have identifying tagging, denoting player, year, set, original uniform number, size, and of course manufacturer. Not to mention, past results archives from the dozen or more major AH that sometimes offer GU flannel. So, if a 1966 Mets road flannel becomes available, and a similar shirt from, say, 1968 sold recently, it can be used as a viable comp.



Flannels are somewhat scarce, but, except for the pre-1940 stuff, not rare. If the price on a quality shirt, like the 1948 Indians flannel that brought $5700 at Goldin this weekend, is considered strong, that indicates hobby strength. If that number looks like a bargain compared to bits of cardboard and ink that sell for much more, then it's a great opportunity.

If you're in Baltimore and walk into a man-cave, what are you going to be drawn to first? The glass display featuring a 2 1/2" by 3 1/2" mass produced picture of Brooks Robinson, printed by Topps in 1967, that has pointy corners, or a 1966 flannel worn by Dave McNally?

Older flannels/wool jerseys are massively under appreciated except by those who have held them and collected them. Truly were a part of the game and the historical presence of the player(s). I think they are awesome.

I only have one baseball one (from Dummy Hoy bought thru Sotheby’s years ago) , but many hockey jerseys (where admittedly game worn jerseys are a world unto themselves and are massively popular). Below is the only known surviving jersey of the Brooklyn Americans (successor to the NY Americans, and original NHL team that folded after Brooklyn) from 1941-42 worn by Tommy Anderson who won the Hart Trophy that year in this jersey.

These are very rare, but my favorite thing that i have collected.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by puckpaul

Older flannels/wool jerseys are massively under appreciated except by those who have held them and collected them. Truly were a part of the game and the historical presence of the player(s). I think they are awesome.

That's why GU is the answer to the original question. Prices on quality cards (and modern, where quality is debatable) have already gone to the moon. Flannels are still pretty much at entry level prices. It's a better bet that they will begin to catch on, instead of card values going past the moon and on to the sun.

I only have one hockey jersey. The player went to grade school, junior and high school with me, just one year older, so he's a local hero. And the 1980 USA Olympic hockey gold medal run might be the sports story of last century. It's a practice jersey issued early on... the Olympic gamers go for something in the neighborhood of $100,000.00

[clamendo]

edited

[perezfan]

Championship season tickets. Where are all these coming from?

I have been collecting programs, recently. Lot more information than on a ticket. But tougher to store. Also, would probably be tougher to counterfeit. Two very solid companies are now grading programs/magazines, CGC and PSA with reasonable turnaround times.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

Really sad, if it takes third party grading to "legitimize" these great segments of the hobby. Yes, let's immobilize the program, magazine or yearbook (so no one can ever flip the pages or look inside again). Sad.

Would love to see a poll like this on a neutral site. Cards would probably still win out, but not by the overwhelming margin you see in this Card-centric forum.

[bbcard1]

I am thinking Japanese cards have room, but a lot less than five years ago =.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by bbcard1

I am thinking Japanese cards have room, but a lot less than five years ago =.

Baseball has been popular in Japan for almost a hundred years. But, other than players who also played in the USA, how many people can name at least 5 Japanese players, besides Oh?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Baseball has been popular in Japan for almost a hundred years. But, other than players who also played in the USA, how many people can name at least 5 Japanese players, besides Oh?

Just from my collection:

Kazuhisa Inao: 276-137 record and a 1.98 ERA, 42 wins in a season, 20 consecutive wins, and 1.06 ERA in his rookie year



Isao Harimoto: best player you've never heard of: .319 BA, 3,085 hits (#1 all time NPB), 504 home runs, and 319 stolen bases



Katsuya Nomura: 657 home runs, 2,901 hits, and 1,988 RBIs, 5x MVP and a triple crown



Masaichi Kaneda and Tetsuya Yoneda: Kaneda had 400 wins and 4,490 Ks. Yoneda 350 wins 3,388 Ks.



Victor Starffin: 303 wins, 176 losses, a 2.09 career ERA, and 83 career shutouts, the most in league history. He is the first Japanese leaguer to reach 300 wins and holds the record for wins in a single season with 42 victories in 1939.



Hint: he's the white guy. Russian raised in Japan.

And I know it isn't part of the challenge but I do like this Oh card:



1978 Yamakatsu

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Just from my collection:

Okay, you're one. I'll bet there are a few more people on here who can also name 5 non-MLB Japanese ballplayers. And hundreds, or thousands, who can't.

For Japanese cards to be a hot investment over the next 5 years, tens of thousands of collectors would have to suddenly take interest in the game being played over there. This would require not only studying the history of players with unfamiliar names but also learning a bit of a foreign language. And that, in turn, would probably require becoming at least somewhat familiar with a new and complicated alphabet.

That's just way too exotic to catch on in a big way. Pokemon, sure. But the parallel universe of Japanese baseball, no.

[Snapolit1]

(4) a lot of it isn't particularly attractive. Jerseys the exception. Pants, socks, catchers masks, etc. . . . . just not that aestetically interesting.

Originally Posted by nat

I see three problems with equipment:

(1) a lot of it is large and hard to store. Even if I was in the market for a game used bat, I'd be in the market for, what, five of them? I've probably got room for one bat rack and then I'm out of wall space, or looking to move bookshelves or something. Jerseys take up closet space, and that's already at a premium. If you've got a big house with a dedicated man-cave you can make it work, but if you're pulling everyone without a dedicated man-cave out of the market, it's going to pull prices down.

(2) it's hard to commodify. One thing that grading does is it turns every XYZ card in such-and-such a PSA grade into one that is (all of us "buy the card not the holder" folks aside) identical to every other copy in that grade. This does a bunch of things. First, it helps with liquidity, which brings people into the market. (Consider that one reason to buy shares in a blue chip company instead of a sketchy penny stock is that you know you'll be able to sell them if you want.) Second, it allows people to very clearly see what would be an upgrade for them. If you've got a PSA X and a PSA X+1 is available, you might be interested in it. But if you've got an item that is different from a second in some incommensurable way, you may not be interested in the other. It won't come across as an upgrade. Third, commodification allows for competition (most notably in the registry). Which drives up prices. Maybe you can commodify modern game-used equipment, where there's enough, like, Miguel Cabrera bats (just picking a name, I don't know about him in particular) that you can regard each of his bats as interchangeable with every other one (aside from grade). But you can't do it with rarer stuff.

(3) At least for the older equipment, it's rare. Econ 101 will tell you that this will drive up price, but only to the extent that rarity doesn't drive down demand. I think one problem is that older stuff is rare enough to suppress demand. Maybe you're a fan of the Tigers and would like a game-used glove of every Tiger hall of famer. Good luck. That, I assume, you'll never find a lot of them might discourage you from ever getting started. A card or a photo, however, is doable, and so you're more likely to set out on that project, just because it can be done.

[Snapolit1]

(4) a lot of it isn't particularly attractive. Jerseys the exception. Pants, socks, catchers masks, etc. . . . . just not that aestetically interesting.

Originally Posted by nat

I see three problems with equipment:

(1) a lot of it is large and hard to store. Even if I was in the market for a game used bat, I'd be in the market for, what, five of them? I've probably got room for one bat rack and then I'm out of wall space, or looking to move bookshelves or something. Jerseys take up closet space, and that's already at a premium. If you've got a big house with a dedicated man-cave you can make it work, but if you're pulling everyone without a dedicated man-cave out of the market, it's going to pull prices down.

(2) it's hard to commodify. One thing that grading does is it turns every XYZ card in such-and-such a PSA grade into one that is (all of us "buy the card not the holder" folks aside) identical to every other copy in that grade. This does a bunch of things. First, it helps with liquidity, which brings people into the market. (Consider that one reason to buy shares in a blue chip company instead of a sketchy penny stock is that you know you'll be able to sell them if you want.) Second, it allows people to very clearly see what would be an upgrade for them. If you've got a PSA X and a PSA X+1 is available, you might be interested in it. But if you've got an item that is different from a second in some incommensurable way, you may not be interested in the other. It won't come across as an upgrade. Third, commodification allows for competition (most notably in the registry). Which drives up prices. Maybe you can commodify modern game-used equipment, where there's enough, like, Miguel Cabrera bats (just picking a name, I don't know about him in particular) that you can regard each of his bats as interchangeable with every other one (aside from grade). But you can't do it with rarer stuff.

(3) At least for the older equipment, it's rare. Econ 101 will tell you that this will drive up price, but only to the extent that rarity doesn't drive down demand. I think one problem is that older stuff is rare enough to suppress demand. Maybe you're a fan of the Tigers and would like a game-used glove of every Tiger hall of famer. Good luck. That, I assume, you'll never find a lot of them might discourage you from ever getting started. A card or a photo, however, is doable, and so you're more likely to set out on that project, just because it can be done.

[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by Mark17

That's why GU is the answer to the original question. Prices on quality cards (and modern, where quality is debatable) have already gone to the moon. Flannels are still pretty much at entry level prices. It's a better bet that they will begin to catch on, instead of card values going past the moon and on to the sun.

I only have one hockey jersey. The player went to grade school, junior and high school with me, just one year older, so he's a local hero. And the 1980 USA Olympic hockey gold medal run might be the sports story of last century. It's a practice jersey issued early on... the Olympic gamers go for something in the neighborhood of $100,000.00

I like GU jerseys but as others have said, the entry price is high and they're hard to store. But , at a minimum GU jerseys have the possibility of getting demand from card manufacturers who want to cut them up for relic cards.

[Yoda]

Oh's teammate Nagashima would be one,

[nat]

If by "upside" you mean "possible percentage gain" then Japanese cards might be in the running, given how low a starting point they're working from. Lots of cards of vintage Japanese hall of famers can be had for five or ten bucks. Not hard to imagine people being willing to shell out two extra dollars for a card and driving prices up 20-40%. (Pictured: vintage Japanese hall of famers that I bought for around five or ten bucks.)

Collectors in Japan are mostly (almost entirely) into modern. Even a little interest in vintage in Japan could do wonders for vintage prices.

Not saying it will happen, but there's a possibility here. (If you're looking to make money on it though, you'd have to deal in volume, given the low prices. If OP is looking for a business plan this probably isn't it.)