Card prices tipping point?

[Brent G.]

Originally Posted by gregndodgers

To a large extent, prices reflect demand. If the price is set too high, we can always negotiate the seller down.

No, you can't ALWAYS do that — especially on opening day of a 3-day show, I guess. Some are immune to sensible negotiation, while others are simply waiting for dumb money to walk in.

[gregndodgers]

Originally Posted by Brent G.

No, you can't ALWAYS do that — especially on opening day of a 3-day show, I guess. Some are immune to sensible negotiation, while others are simply waiting for dumb money to walk in.

I stand corrected! We can always TRY to negotiate down! LoL

But seriously, I think high prices are a sign of a healthy hobby! And when I NEED a particular card, I don’t let the price stand in the way!

[raulus]

Originally Posted by gregndodgers

I stand corrected! We can always TRY to negotiate down! LoL

But seriously, I think high prices are a sign of a healthy hobby! And when I NEED a particular card, I don’t let the price stand in the way!

Hot damn! Just make sure you line up to buy my stuff, and don’t let my high prices get in your way!

[Brent G.]

Originally Posted by gregndodgers

i stand corrected! We can always try to negotiate down! Lol

but seriously, i think high prices are a sign of a healthy hobby! And when i need a particular card, i don’t let the price stand in the way!

Send me your wantlist!

[sb1]

One thing to remember is that comps are yesterdays prices, what it brought prior, not what it is in todays market. A rare or even scarce/popular card will theoretically keep moving in an upward trend, so there is no reason for one to assume it will bring the same or less, if demand is the same or higher.

I doubt any dealer is going to buy a card as above and price it for what he paid for it(comp price), they will seek a higher price level and set the new price level going forward.

[Brent G.]

Originally Posted by sb1

One thing to remember is that comps are yesterdays prices, what it brought prior, not what it is in todays market. A rare or even scarce/popular card will theoretically keep moving in an upward trend, so there is no reason for one to assume it will bring the same or less, if demand is the same or higher.

I doubt any dealer is going to buy a card as above and price it for what he paid for it(comp price), they will seek a higher price level and set the new price level going forward.

Clearly now is the time to SELL. Whether it's regular dealers overpaying for inventory, breakers trying to squeeze people to finance the currently obscene prices for sealed high-end, or repackers paying 90% (there were many signs at this show saying that), the whole thing feels way overcooked. I'm not here to pay for someone else's bad purchases, at least that's how I felt at this show. I was there offering good prices for a handful of mainstream items based on recent sales history. Maybe people just wanted some extra Christmas money.

There eventually comes a point when the buyer just has to say, "No."

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Brent G.

There eventually comes a point when the buyer just has to say, "No."

This all day long, and it can feel great! Like everything else we buy, what's the price, how much do we have, and how much do we want it? At the intersection of those...DEAL!

[Exhibitman]

We are here:



I don't think you can say "sell' or "buy" based on any one thing...but just once I would like to see the "sell" warriors actually sell off their collections.

What concerns me is wealth concentration. The top 10 stocks by market cap in the S&P 500 account for 40% of the value of the market. The top 10% of Americans by wealth own 90% of all securities and account for 50% of all consumer spending. The S&P 500 is overvalued by historical measures. A downturn, perhaps an invidia or other Mag 10 company having a crappy quarter, ripples across a rather narrow constituency that plays an outsized role in discretionary spending and could generate a contraction in their spending that would push us into recession. That would certainly seem to be a big indicator to sell. On the other hand, various financial opinion makers are starting to look hard at alternative investments as hedges against a downturn, inflation, or both together. That might drive people used to spending big into cards and would increase prices for the best stuff. Candidly, we are all:



The real bottom line on all of it is that prices cycle and if you don't need to liquidate now there is no reason to think that prices are irreversibly up or down. If something exceeds what you are comfortable spending, don't buy it. Odds are you'll see it again.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Don't go to big shows unless you want to overspend. For me, they have been an almost complete waste of time for decades. Sadly, the same can be said about the vast majority of retail stores. It's cheaper and easier to buy online.

I would much rather have the best of both worlds, as attending shows 35 years ago was fun and exciting. For the longest time, it's just been a case of walking around and wishing I had used the time to accomplish something more productive.

If you like the idea of attending shows and have the goal of buying items at agreeable price points, perhaps smaller, local/regional shows might still be the best option. Booth space is cheaper and travel costs for dealers are usually a lot less if they're native to the area. As an added bonus, you will be more prone to encounter people who aren't doing this full time and may have their items priced more in tune with your actually being willing to purchase something! It's a roll of the dice, but to me, the smaller shows are far more worthy of further exploration. As an added bonus, the promoters of these shows should be easier to contact. You could phone or email ahead of time to see if they might know if there's anyone selling who fits your needs. This has definitely helped save me time in the past.

[Vintagedeputy]

I tend to look at things like this:

1) Comps are BS. What someone else sold something for at some other time is irrelevant. THIS card (that I’m looking at, whether buying or selling) is not THAT card and THIS time is not THAT time and I’m not that guy.

2) We can look at price guides and sold sale listings and comps all day long, but that’s not accurate to the situation we’re in at that moment. Collectible values are determined in the moment by a number that a buyer and seller agree upon for that particular item. For example, I’m a reseller. If I buy a whatever for $1 at a yard sale, the seller asked a price and I agreed to that price. If I sell that item a week later for $100, that’s the number that me as the seller and the new buyer agreed upon. So what’s the “actual value”? Well, first it was $1 and then it was $100. That’s pretty simple to understand.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

The nicest aspects of not shopping in person at shows or stores:

--Not having to inquire about price. People who want to sell things always have an actual price attached. (If something is listed on a venue such as Marketplace with a price of "$1" or "Free", immediately pass it by. It's not $1 and it certainly won't be free or priced realistically. "i'M aCcEpTiNg oFfErZ!!!" = I'm only looking to sell to someone with no idea of actual value and who is willing to give me thrice that.)

--Not dealing with someone reaching for a price guide or their phone to access past sales records for every single item they are selling, thereby letting you know this was likely a few moments of your life you'll never get back. (With online offerings, people who are doing this are easily ascertained and avoided if necessary simply judging by their prices.)

--No hemming and hawing/having to listen to someone's life story when all you want to do is purchase something and move on.

[Brent G.]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

I tend to look at things like this:

1) Comps are BS. What someone else sold something for at some other time is irrelevant. THIS card (that I’m looking at, whether buying or selling) is not THAT card and THIS time is not THAT time and I’m not that guy.

2) We can look at price guides and sold sale listings and comps all day long, but that’s not accurate to the situation we’re in at that moment. Collectible values are determined in the moment by a number that a buyer and seller agree upon for that particular item. For example, I’m a reseller. If I buy a whatever for $1 at a yard sale, the seller asked a price and I agreed to that price. If I sell that item a week later for $100, that’s the number that me as the seller and the new buyer agreed upon. So what’s the “actual value”? Well, first it was $1 and then it was $100. That’s pretty simple to understand.

If someone wants to ignore extensive sales data over the past 12, 6, 3 months, or even the past week, and price an item at way above those numbers, that's certainly their right. A used car salesman can ignore Kelley Blue Book and price an '86 Ford Escort at $20,000 if they want. And they can sit on that thing when no one buys it.

[Zach Wheat]

Originally Posted by sb1

One thing to remember is that comps are yesterdays prices, what it brought prior, not what it is in todays market. A rare or even scarce/popular card will theoretically keep moving in an upward trend, so there is no reason for one to assume it will bring the same or less, if demand is the same or higher.

I doubt any dealer is going to buy a card as above and price it for what he paid for it(comp price), they will seek a higher price level and set the new price level going forward.

very true