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#51
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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus
I think it strains credulity to believe the set registry wasn't created to take advantage of and fuel competition among participants. And that PSA is counting on this "overt competition" to contribute to a flood of initial re-submissions and help resuscitate their sagging business outlook. In addition, it is logical to believe PSA's rush to give certain prominant set registry members great deals to re-submit is motivated in large measure by PSA's hope that the bump in those members' set standings would create a domino effect and induce others to re-submit to maintain their place in the standings. |
#52
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Posted By: JimCrandell
Corey, |
#53
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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus
Jim, |
#54
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Posted By: JimCrandell
Corey, |
#55
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Posted By: barrysloate
This whole concept is still in its infancy and it will take some time to see how it evolves. |
#56
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Posted By: JimCrandell
Barry, |
#57
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Posted By: barrysloate
Jim- I missed your drift. Are they being lenient or very strict? |
#58
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Posted By: Eric Brehm
For PSA, the downside to being too generous with the half-grade bumps is that it will diminish their reputation for accurate grading. In my opinion they will have condition standards (centering, etc.) that will be applied as objectively as possible. In theory, somewhere in the neighborhood of half of the cards submitted should get the bumps. |
#59
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Posted By: Steve
Barry |
#60
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Posted By: barrysloate
Actually, since I threw out the numbers 10% and 20% in my earlier post, and you heard that about 15% of one submission got bumped, then maybe that will be the eventual range. |
#61
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Posted By: JimCrandell
Barry, |
#62
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Posted By: Eric Brehm
If I have a set on the registry, and I get 8 points for a PSA 8, 8.5 points for a PSA 8.5, and 9 points for a PSA 9, then an 8.5 card should be halfway between an 8 and a 9, quality-wise (not necessarily value-wise, of course). If only 15% of existing PSA 8 cards are considered good enough to get a half-grade bump, and I have one of those, I should get 8.85 points for it! |
#63
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Posted By: Joann
Corey - you're absolutely right about not having to discount for the bump review. I hadn't thought about that. I was looking at it from just the mechanical perspective. Still, I'd like to ask someone from PSA that question (why no discount). Right now it looks like the answer would have to be one of wanting to pocket the money, or that the grading time is so minimal they can't discount it. |
#64
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Posted By: SC
<<One other thing to keep in mind though, is that the percentage of cards that do receive the half-grade bumps will be skewed somewhat by the fact that people will tend to submit stronger cards within each grade (i.e. that have a higher likelihood of being re-graded).>> |
#65
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Posted By: JimCrandell
"Its gotta be something easy I'm missing right" |
#66
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Posted By: JimCrandell
Solomon, |
#67
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Posted By: SC
<<And I must be missing something completely with this 10-12-15-20% bump issue. Why wouldn't it almost automatically be 50%. Shouldn't all cards graded 6 divide themselves roughly half and half between the top part of the range (6.5 - 7) and the bottom half (6 - 6.5)? It seems like they would almost have to.>> |
#68
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Posted By: SC
Jim, |
#69
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Posted By: JimCrandell
Sol--I see your point. |
#70
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Posted By: Joann
OK, I understand that an 8 is harder than a 7 which is harder than a 6, and so forth. |
#71
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Posted By: Eric Brehm
It's a question of whether PSA will define 8.5 as the midpoint of observed quality over the 8 range, or as the midpoint relative to some independent objective standard regarding card condition (corner wear, centering, etc.). If the latter is the case, I could see that there will be less 8.5's than than there are 8's (i.e. less than 50% will get a bump), just as there now many fewer 9's than 8's. As Jim C. said that will be particularly true of pre-war cards where higher grade cards are more scarce. |
#72
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Posted By: Matt Bojorquez
I have been told the PSA 8.5 will require near perfect centering, absolutely zero PD, and must possess great eye appeal. It also means you will see far fewer vintage cards being graded a PSA 9 in the future, they will now be 8.5s. |
#73
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
Matt, that's interesting: I've seen plenty of 9s that don't possess such criteria. |
#74
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Posted By: barrysloate
Joann- I think it should be less than 50%, and here's why. |
#75
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Posted By: barrysloate
Jeff- posted at the same minute again! |
#76
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Posted By: Scot Reader
It has been suggested that a loose standard for half-point upgrades will result in a larger number of resubmissions than a strict standard. I don't think this is necessarily true because a strict standard will result in a larger number of cards being resubmitted for upgrade multiple times. |
#77
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Posted By: Steve
Yesterday someone reported some poppage (not resubmits) and of 99 cards he received 3 .5 cards. He recieved grades from 6 thru 10 for 1960 61 type cards. |
#78
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Posted By: Scot Reader
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#79
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Posted By: JimB
SGC does not seem to use half grades as much either, except the 1.5/20s. Maybe PSA is following SGC's lead on that. |
#80
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Posted By: barrysloate
Jim- SGC uses the 70 with some frequency, which is a 5.5. |
#81
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Posted By: Eric Brehm
I was curious to know how frequently SGC has been assigning their 1/2 grades, so I looked it up. For the issues I sampled, the rate of 1/2 grade assignments (as a fraction of the total cards graded with or without the 1/2 grade bump at each whole grade level) varies between about 15% and 30% for grades 7/7.5 and 8/8.5. Here is the data for all of the half grades: |
#82
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
Eric, I'm still trying to digest your work but in the meantime, some conclusions: |
#83
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Posted By: Eric Brehm
Jeff, you guessed it, I am a semi-retired mathematician. Just can't keep my hands off the data. Numbers speak better than words, anyhow. Not sure how much I could contribute to a narcotics trial, is there some analysis of some sort that is needed? And baseball card collecting is enough (probably too much) of a hobby for me at the moment, thanks. |
#84
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Posted By: JimB
Eric, |
#85
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Posted By: Steve
math aside, another submission popped and of 50 hi grade cards exactly 1 was given an in between grade. These cards wre all 7, 8, and 9 caliber. |
#86
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
PSA is hilarious! They are making everyone spend all this money for resubmissions -- and then in order to make more money on the deal, PSA only spends the time and resources to break out one card out of every 50 submitted! Never get cheated, Joe! |
#87
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Posted By: Bob
"I don't know - it's hard for me to see that there is such distinction within these higher grades that they could create such a subtle "fade" within a grade as you approach the next grade. |
#88
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Posted By: Eric Brehm
Even with the existing PSA system, I often have a hard time distinguishing between say, a '7' and an '8', or between an '8' and a '9'. And I have often scratched my head over some of the grades that PSA assigns, in all grades. But, SGC, GAI, and Beckett have been using half grades for a long time, so there must be some method to the madness. We'll see what PSA comes up with. I think they are in it to make money, yes, but I'm not so cynical as to think that they are just trying to rip everybody off. |
#89
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Posted By: Steve
Jeff |
#90
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
But Steve -- if only one of 50 cards merits the new half point grade, doesn't that suggest that PSA will rarely give it out whether on a raw submission or resubmission? |
#91
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Posted By: Steve
Jeff I have no idea, all I can do at this time is report what i have heard and seen. |
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