Hobby Panic in 2009

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Posted By: George L.

Why post that cards are going to fall 25-35% a few days after you post on the bst the following-is your investment standpoint to lose money because I have severe doubts the poster collects for the "fun" of it.


In these tough economic times, cash is king.

A great depression is just around the corner.

If you have ultra rare high grade pre WWII type cards that you
are willing to sell, we'll pay top market prices if
said items meet our standards and our needs.

Please send a list of what you have and your bottom
line asking price in confidence to

Bruce Dorskind
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: 1880nonsports

please see my email.
I'm only observing this time around but EVERY time I see that Brian Cat picture i nearly plotz....
Let's try and think more about others than ourselves in 2009......

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Posted By: davidcycleback

Duly note that the auction houses don't own any of the consignments, and the consignments are not part of their assets. The consignor then the winner own the consignments. If the government seizes a for-a-fee downtown parking lot, the parking lot doesn't own the cars parked there and the government would allow car owners to take their cars.

If the government seizes a consignment auction house, it knows the consignments are going to have to be returned to the owners.

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Posted By: John J. Grillo

Bruce...you are an idiot. Your predictions weren't very bold as any economist or news buff could have predicted what you predicted...OK, let's say for argument's sake your predictions were bold...my answer to that is that the sun shines on a dog's ass every now and then.



I will predict that your prediction of a Depression will not occur. Quit scaring people as I read your post it was plainly obvious you have no clue. To make a claim such as this merely just shows your ignorance on the historical factors that led to the market crash in 29. I'll just leave it at that.



FWIW...Do you know the top two selling vehicles in the United States last year were both American trucks:



Ford F-150 ... over 470,000 sold last year alone.

Chevrolet Silverado... came in 2nd at 430,000.



I hope this little fact above doesn't hurt you on your journey of trying to acquire vintage cards on bargain basement prices...who knows, maybe you'll get lucky and the auto industry will crash and millions of americans will lose their jobs...you keep always say a prayer every night hoping this occurs.

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Posted By: Fred C

John,

Bruce is not an idiot. However, he can be little eccentric and different.

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Posted By: Jay

Bruce raised a good issue with this post. I seems that the prudent consignor would:



1. Request a cash advance for as high a percentage of the consignments retail value as possible (just in case the **** hits the fan).



2. Make certain you know what value your consignment is insured for while in the auction house's possession. There should be an insurance policy with a known company--self insurance should be a non-starter.



3. Avoid consigning to auctions that are a long way off. The market can change and once consigned you can not get your lots back because the market is not where you thought it would be. More time equals more uncertainty.



I'm sure the list could be expanded and improved but these are just a few thoughts.

and John, with all due respect, Bruce is anything but an idiot.

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

Dear John

We wonder where your economic wisdom emanates from.

Did you also attend two Ivy League universities?

How many books have you written?

How much research have you undertaken on rare baseball cards?

You sound particularly bitter for someone with such a small mind


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

Bruce's first ever 'Dear John' letter. Yea!

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Posted By: Steve

If one is a collector it does not matter, prices go up
down, sideways etc. Collectors are in for the long run.

Now if one is strictly an investor then he/she may have a problem.


Steve

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Posted By: Greg Theberge

"You sound particularly bitter for someone with such a small mind"

Why is this crap tolerated on this board? Utterly childish.

Greg

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Posted By: Jay

Greg--I think you need to start with John calling Bruce an idiot; that started the tit for tat.

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Posted By: Brian

I like applesauce.

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Posted By: bigfish

Bruce,

WHY?

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Posted By: Dave

Let's be real here for a second... it's gonna be a bad year. 2009 will be one to forget when all is said and done.

Will it be a Depression like the 30's? No.
But it will be the worst thing since.
Now take a deep breath. The economy will not take as long to recover as in the past.

Bruce would never write this though because it's obvious he sees the long term value in Cardboard. But fear not... he's ready to pounce on those in need and take advantage (see the BST).

While I appreciate Bruce's knowledge on the Hobby and his intellect on certain subjects, I find his posts of late to be that of a vulture-like terrorist. Spreading panic on the regular board and trying to reap the benefits on the BST.

Best of luck to you Bruce. You're kinda like a high end Mr. Mint lately.

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Posted By: leon

"Why is this crap tolerated on this board? Utterly childish.

Greg"


It is tolerated because I/we (there are 3 of us) have given hours and hours of thought to moderating the board and the best thing is to let folks, that aren't being anonymous, say what they want to, per the rules. Otherwise, we would never get to know their character, or lack of. It would be a very stale place if it were "overly" moderated/censored....take care

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Posted By: John S

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

Dear Dave

Four Points:

1) We truly believe the economy will go into a depression. We hope we are not
correct, but we see (others may disagree) that there is a strong sign of a depression


2) The main purpose of this post was to address the issue of what happens to a consignor
if an auction house is prosecuted by the Government or files for bankruptcy.
We received some excellent, highly professional responses to this query.


3) Those who care to attack us, make fun or call us names can expect us to attack back.
You may disagree- but Dear John and later another person raised the issue. We have every
right to respond as strongly and as directly as we deem appropriate.


4) With regard to our BST Posts- we have been running the same posts for more than 4 years.
In 2008 we bought 20 different items from BST- some were at low prices- some were at record
high prices. Whilst we are marketers by training, we are not attempting to scare the marke
into selling. The 10 offers we received from our most recent post resulted in nine turn downs
and one sale. The items we turned down were fairly priced...they simply did not fit onto our want list.


We do not buy for resale. The average type card we own has been part of our collection for
eight years.


Regards and Happy New Year!


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: Dave

I hear you Bruce. There were several good responses to your original post and the question you posed is a valid one... but when you start a thread called "Hobby Panic in 2009" and not "Federal Involvement in Auction Houses"... you're fear mongering. Couple that up with your post on the BST of "Cash is King"... and my take is that you're working both sides of the plate (so to speak). And that's where I drew the comparisons to Mr Mint.

Maybe more accurate thread titles would cause less of a stir down the line. Just my opinion.
I think we're all in agreement 2009 is going to be bad, very bad. Lets hope you're wrong about the depression part though and let's think positive.

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Posted By: Jeff

For those of you not nauseated by the topic already, I'd be happy to give anyone a quick primer on bankruptcy law as it relates to auction houses (not very much unlike a "self-storage" facility that goes under, by analogy, a case I actually handled in Virginia). Simply put, no trustee or creditor can grab property of a bankrupt auction house in satisfaction of the debts of the bankrupt auction house. The Bankruptcy Courts only have jurisdiction over property in which the debtor (the bankrupt auction house) has a recognized legal interest in the asset in question. As a non-tile holder, and mere possessor of another's goods, the auction house has no legal title or interest in the consignor's goods, even if they are in the auction house's possession. (In other words, as was pointed out above, consignors' goods have to be affirmatively shown to be legally owned by the auction house in some fashion before the goods would be considered part of the bankruptcy "estate" and be subjected to Bankruptcy Court administration.)

No, no "bankruptcy clause" in a consignment contract would be valid, or enforced, but it wouldn't be necessary as long as it is clear that title, in whole or in part, fully or for collateral purposes only, does not pass to the auction house (most consignment contracts I have seen make this very clear, since, with ownership, comes liability).

And, no, it wouldn't be much of a slap fight (although there are bankruptcy lawyers I'd pay to see to have a slap fight). It would take a motion made on behalf of one or more consignors for "turnover" of "non-estate" property, and would likely take 30-60 days before a Bankruptcy Court would hear the motion and rule on it. Not knowing any more than this, I'd guess there is a 95+% chance of a consignor winning this motion without much of a fight.

Once the consigned goods are sold and paid for, though, its a little different. Now, the auction house holds the consignors' money in trust. However, that trust can be and usually is technically violated when the auction house commingles all of the consignors' proceeds with its own general operating money, making it impossible to identify a particular deposit into that account distinct from any other deposit. In such a case, the commingling will probably result in no "turnover" of "non-estate" property to the consignors, since you can no longer specifically identify the dollars in the general operating account attributable to the proceeds of the consignor's particular sale. Then, there might be a LIFO/FIFO sort of accounting, but that usually fails when it comes to money in a bankruptcy case, and the unpaid consignors are relegated to mere creditors, and unsecured creditors at that (the next to lowest on the food chain -- shareholders in the auction house are actually the lowest form of bankruptcy pond scum). If by some miracle the auction house segregates (physically segregates, like in a separate account, or bank, or state) the consignment proceeds from any and every other money it holds, then some accounting of how to divvy up what is in that account would protect the consignors. In other words, the best protection for consignors is to be sure that, after a sale, the auction house physically segregates the consignors' portion of the proceeds of sales, and accounts for it separately from all other money coursing through the auction house.

As for 2009 and 2010, the fact is that more crappy real estate is going to collapse -- the 60 Minutes story hit it on the head. Alt-A's and Option Arms are coming due in the next 12-24 months, and that almost guarantees further suppression of realty prices and liquidity, and thus the "ground up" theory of economic recovery is almost certainly stymied through that period. With businesses failing due to collapsing markets, and the failure of financial institutions to put the TARP money out on the street in new or refinanced loans, and the coming second swell of real estate setbacks, things will likely not improve much, if at all, through 2010, and will probably step back, perhaps not hugely, but most likely at least somewhat. I don't see any real change for the man on the street until late 2010 or 2011, and I have never seen it as bad as it is right now (in almost 30 years of bankruptcy practice). Unemployment is going to rise, realty prices soften, interest rates remain so low as to dissuade investment, etc., so 2011 may be the first real glimmer of recovery light.

Its not doom and gloom. I'm on the front lines here, and I see it everyday in the faces of the people I interview as prospective clients -- things are bad, going to get just as bad for many more people, and for others it will get far worse, and no one foresees any real change anytime in the next two years. Maybe we're all wrong, but I doubt it.

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Posted By: CoreyRSh.anus

The likelihood of a depression IMO is extremely unlikely. Are any respected economists predicting such an occurrence? I believe in time we will witness how resiliant the US economy is, especially as the benefits of much lower oil prices filter through. In the meantime, for my nickel, I believe current purchases of many kinds of ultra-rare high-quality memorabilia or cards (though with cards, not condition rarities but actual rarities) will prove to be prudent investments.

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds?
Captain Renault: I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
[a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]
Croupier: Your winnings, sir.
Captain Renault: [sotto voce] Oh, thank you very much.
[aloud]
Captain Renault: Everybody out at once!

The panic-mongers in general are overstating the case for their own selfish reasons, whether they are political, pragmatic or simply malicious fun. As far as the motivation behind this thread, methinks the Dorskind Group dost protest too much. Actions speak volumes. He runs "In these tough economic times, cash is king. A great depression is just around the corner" as an advertisement one day and then posts a discussion about the "Hobby Panic in 2009" the next? Puh-leese, if that course of conduct was any more transparently self-serving it would be made of saran wrap. Besides, savvy operator that he is, if Bruce really believed that a great depression was imminent, then he would know that cards would continue to decline in value and he would be waiting for the other shoe to drop before offering to buy more cards.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: steve

Bruce- I think you are full of baloney. Have some faith bro.

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Posted By: Fred C

Casablanca...

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Posted By: George HC

It's time for your medication, Bruce(s).

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Posted By: marshall barkman

Bruce...i can answer your question. In 2003 a major auction house declared bankruptcy in Washington Dc. That auction house would be compared to Sotheby's of New York. They owed consignors and also estates millions of dollars. The clients were never compensated and anyone who consigned to Sloan's was not allowed to bid on any items while the bankruptcy was going on in fear they would not pay for the items due to the fact money was owed to them. The auction house was then bought by new ownership in 2004 but only the name was purchased and not the debt. The people still have not been payed back nor will they ever be. If a auction house goes bankrupt after selling your cards or antiques then you basically are done unless there is tangible assets. In the case of Sloan's the building was leased and the company owned nothing. My advice to anyone who feels a auction house or company is questionable then sell your goods on sites like this where you control your destiny.

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Posted By: Bob

Because the root of the problems is gone!

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Posted By: John J. Grillo

Bruce..here's your original comment:



"Many of our posts reflect our strong belief that the US will face



a depression between 2009-2012"



Based on what? Do you know what a Depression is? Do you know what factors led to the stock market crash in 1929? What, specifically do you see occuring on the economic front in the next 2-3 years that is going to result in a Depression?



Let me give you a hint why I think you're an idiot. It wouldn't be a US-only Depression...it would be a worldwide depression, not just the US.



You are able to routinely backup your comments about vintage card prices or cards in general with facts. Therefore, you are making what is called an argument, to which one can agree or disagree. With me so far?



Now the comment above on the other hand, doesn't even constitute an argument. It is childish and immature to say the least.

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Posted By: Rob D.

Not to nitpick, John, but I wouldn't say Bruce "routinely" backs up his comments (about cards, collectibles, the Yankees, sports in general, etc.) with facts. To the contrary, often the information he presents as "fact" gets disproven by folks willing to do the research.

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Posted By: Sean C

Dear Bruce

I don't wonder where John's economic wisdom emanates from.

I don't care if John attend two Ivy League universities.

I don't care how many books John has written?

I don't know how much research John may have undertaken on rare baseball cards?

I do know that John doesn't refer to himself with the royal "we", which indicates he is dealing from far stronger sense of reality that you. Your continued use of plural self references and affectations in your posts says far more about you as a human being than you realize.

I do know that your "You sound particularly bitter for someone with such a small mind " comment is incredibly ironic considering your history, both here and what has been revealed in your background.

Grow up, you spoiled little brat.

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Posted By: Tom Boblitt

the messiah has come........all will be well. Nothing can possibly go wrong now.......

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Posted By: David McDonald

Glad to see you're coming around, Tom.

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Posted By: Frank L.

Interesting Mr. Boblitt

I wonder if I am thinking along the same lines you are?

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Posted By: Jason

yep......I'm convinced, Bruce must be Mormon.

Jason

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Posted By: leon

Frank L and others....I don't think we can have any anonymity, in this thread, so if you aren't well known by your login, then you need to put a good first and last name along with a good email address with your post. I/we (smiley) appreciate your support on that matter . Please don't take this as a "squelch" of any speech except what it is meant to be......best regards


ps...Frank- I realize this is sort of a private board but I still believe in free speech as much as possible ....

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Your secret world government reminds you to remain calm; all is well. Nevermind those black helicopters...

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: Frank L.

Hello Leon

Sorry, not trying to be anonymous. I am Frank Lastra(flastra@tampabay.rr.com). New to speaking on the forum for the last few weeks. I reside near Tampa, Florida.

Sincerely

Frank L.

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Posted By: David McDonald

Anybody receive their winnings from Memory Lane yet or have they gone under in the last two weeks (in which case for me it's gonna be the Panic of 2008 )?

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Posted By: David Atkatz

Hey, Bruce...

How many books have you written? I haven't been able to find any written by a "Bruce Dorskind." Did you use a nom de plume? (Or perhaps, noms?)

I'm looking for a good read, and someone who's attended two--count 'em, two--Ivy League schools must have written a winner. (Or two, or...)

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Posted By: Bob

In all seriousness (I couldn't resist the gentle poke, Tom ), I think the recession will bottom out and things will get better during 2009, both for the nation and for our hobby. Besides, if prices for cards continue to fall the hobby will not suffer, the investors will cringe but the collectors will continue with business as usual.

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Posted By: MikeU

Very interesting topics Bruce. In my opinion, the hobby was stronger before Mastro, REA, PSA etc. ever existed. I really do not think I would care at all if 70%-90% of the auction companys and 50%-75% of the grading companies ceased to exist. There are too many of both of these that exist currently. A very hypercompetitive market. For gods sakes, we do not need 12 auction companys and 4 grading services.

I would collect if cards were worthless. That is essentially how they were when I started. I am all for some plumeting prices. Just hope I am in a postion to reap the benefits of cheaper prices. That is my biggest concern.

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Posted By: Anonymous

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ dorskind ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. Wake me up when this thread is over!!!!!! ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

edited in a page break.

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Posted By: MikeU

Bruce,

What do you do for a living? I apologize in advance if this has been stated in the past.

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Posted By: LenK59

ladies and gentlemen...i emplore you...in these times of economic crises and spiritual wasteland...to donate all of your baseball card worldly possesions to me.....Maharishi Yogi Berra....bless each and everyone of you

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Posted By: Dave Hornish

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Posted By: barrysloate

Dave- is that a real underground comic or is it photoshopped? MAD's tagline was of course "humor in a jugular vein."

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Posted By: Sean C

I wonder if Bruce has ever realized that the items in his collection will long outlive him. The precious pieces of cardboard that once made him feel superior to others will at some point in the future will be held by others when Bruce is 6 ft. under (or however he spends eternity), and that he will not be remembered for the items he once owned but for the person he once was, in which case he won't be remembered well.

I've been collecting cards off and on for almost 25 years now (sorry it's not longer gang, but I'm only 33), and take great pride and joy in my collection. With any luck, I'll be collecting cards for another 50 + years. One thing I learned early on though is that we only hold the cards for a period of time before they move on to the next collector, either by choice, opportunity, or passing. Should something happen to me tomorrow, my collection will be given to my niece and nephew (or more correctly, to their parents for safe keeping for now) should they decide they want to collect. If they don't, then there will be instructions on whom to contact to have the collection liquidated, with the proceeds going to a trust for the 2 of them. Either way, I'll be happy with what happens with my collection. I doubt Bruce can say (or has even thought of) the same.

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Posted By: peter ullman

If bruce's collection goes into a museum...his name will live on...and on...and on...maybe the museum will have some sound bites of Bruce's commentary on his collection...and life in general...wouldn't that be something!

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

I think talking about Bruce whether positively or negatively is exactly what Bruce craves. I would like to see a moratorium on all things Bruce.

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Posted By: Sean C

I prefer not to give him the satisfaction, but sometimes you have to say what you think.

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

Sean



We have never met nor are we ever likely to meet

Thus you have no business commenting on what we do
with and/or how we manage our collection



Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List