O/T John Smoltz

[nolemmings]

He'll probably get in, but he's no lock. The comparison to Schilling and Kevin Brown is apt. He's nowhere near as good a pitcher as Blyleven, or Jack Morris either, for that matter.

He pitched almost exlclusively for EXTREMELY good teams, and was a number three starter, meaning he seldom matched up against the other teams' best or even next best pitcher--yet he still won more than 17 games exactly once.
Although a good strikeout pitcher, he finished in the top 5 in E.R.A. only twice, and twice in wins. While he deserves credit for three great years as a reliever, it was just that, three years--and in his best save year he had a worse ERA than six pitchers on his own team--slightly better than #4 starter Damian Moss and #5 reliever Kevin Grabowski.

Hey, he'll probably get in, and I don't dislike the guy, but he just did not have the dominating presence I would expect of a HOFer, and certainly not a first ballot lock.

[oldjudge]

Whenever I think of whether a player merits induction into the HOF I think of my general impression of him as a player (how dominant was he when he played, how did I feel about my team facing him). I think Smoltz is a no question HOFer. I thought the same thing about Rice. When Blylevin played I never thought of him as one of the league's best so I don't think he is a HOFer. Mattingly was a HOFer for half of his career until his back gave out. Murphy was also a half career HOFer. Sorry, but I don't think Ozzie Smith or Kirby Puckett are HOFers either.

[paul]

Glavine's 300 wins do not make him a first ballot lock. Ask Early Wynn, Don Sutton, and Phil Niekro. He will definitely make it. He might even make it on the first ballot. But it's no guarantee.

[calvindog]

Paul, I agree, you're right. I like Glavine for the HOF but only because of his ultimate win total. Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Cy Young and Rogers Hornsby didn't get in their first tries. Mordecai Brown only got in via the Veterans' Committee. Why the hell should Tom Glavine or John Smoltz get in on their first five tries?