The T206 350-Only Series - Some Observations on Available Backs

[tedzan]

Matt

At the risk of be-laboring this subject, here are some real numbers for you to consider......

A recent survey of 20,000 randomly sampled T206's over a 4 year period yielded 4 Demmitt's and 4 O'Hara's (St Louis vari-
ations). Similar (but scaled down) surveys in the early '90s and in the 1980's produced very similar results.

For argument sake, let us assume this 20K survey is representative of what is out there on these two very rare variations.
Experts (not I) have guesstimated that approx. 1-2 Million T206's have survived over the past 99 years. If we extrapolate
the results of this survey with respect to the 1-2 Million figure, then we get 200-400 Demmitt cards and 200-400 O'Hara
cards. I think this certainly makes the case for a "single printing" of these two cards. Especially, when you compare these
numbers to the guesstimated population of say a Red Cobb....which is 5000.

If I cannot convince you that these two cards are 350-only subjects, then perhaps someone else here can. But again, the
greatest numbers of POLAR BEAR cards are found with the 61 subjects in the 350/460 series. Trust me, the St Louis cards
of Demmitt and O'Hara were never printed in this run.



TED Z

[Matt]

Originally Posted by tedzan

For argument sake, let us assume this 20K survey is representative of what is out there on these two very rare variations.
Experts (not I) have guesstimated that approx. 1-2 Million T206's have survived over the past 99 years. If we extrapolate
the results of this survey with respect to the 1-2 Million figure, then we get 200-400 Demmitt cards and 200-400 O'Hara
cards. I think this certainly makes the case for a "single printing" of these two cards. Especially, when you compare these
numbers to the guesstimated population of say a Red Cobb....which is 5000.

Ted - in order for your argument to hold, you'd have to compare the number of St Louis Demitts/Oharas with other Polar Bear cards; if your sampling showed 20 of card X with the Polar Bear back and that card is a known 350 and 350/460 subject, and only 4 Demitts, then I agree the Demitt was most likely run for only the 350 subject run. Comparing it to a Red Cobb doesn't do us much good considering all the backs the red Cobby was printed with. All it proves is that the PB Demitt was run for less printing then a red Cobb, which we can all agree on.

[tedzan]

I simply used the Red Cobb as a reference number. This Cobb was Double-Printed and if you reduce its 5000 figure by a 1/2,
you get a typical population number (2000) of any typical T206 card. That still leaves the Demmitt and O'Hara populations at
approximately 1/10 th of a typical T206.

If I had more time today, I would dig up my records comparing the Demmitt and O'Hara numbers to other 350-only PB cards.
However, we are leaving soon for a vacation and this study will have to wait. Maybe, Scot Reader or Jamie Hull will chime in
here, in the meantime, and provide further proof of these Demmitt and O'Hara cards being 350-only Subjects.


Regards,

TED Z