Sportscards and Inflation

[GasHouseGang]

Probably so Clayton. That's what did me in around 1990. There was just too much product and too many cards of each player. It got to be such a game and lots of cards that were "1 of 1", you just couldn't ever dream of collecting every card that came out in a year.

[Brian-Chidester]

My dad did marketing for Modell's Sporting Goods during the '80s and '90s, and we used to get free box seats to Phillies, Mets and Yankees games whenever we wanted them. I was a huge Don Mattingly fan, and even before the numbered cards began around 1993, by the late '80s, I couldn't keep up with all the Mattingly cards that were being produced each year. I tried. It was impossible. It pushed me right out of collecting for a few years, but ultimately led to vintage card collecting, so who knows? Maybe it will happen that way for others coming of age now.

[cmcclelland]

In an effort to try to get this thread back to my original issue - what were the reasons for the "dips" in the sportscard market in the past? What role will inflation play on this? What role does the overall economy play? I wish my memory was good enough to remember the exact years when this happened, but we all know there have been periods of time when the values went down significantly. What were some of the causes?

Also, it seems like we haven't seen a significant pullback in values for a while, and I have spent some time wondering how new things like third party grading, ebay, vcp.com, etc. will have an impact on any potential pullback. Could these new elements make a pullback worse, or could they reduce the effect of a potential pullback?

[barrysloate]

Colt- I'll offer two reasons why we see dips in the market. They are unrelated, and I'm sure there are others:

1) the economy stinks and people don't have enough extra money to buy baseball cards.

2) Certain key bidders who have an enormous influence on prices drop out and change the landscape dramatically. About five years ago there were two collectors who were competing heavily for rookie Hall of Famers. The price for these cards skyrocketed. For example, lower grade E107 HOFers, most of which are rookie cards, went from the $1000 range per card, to the $5000-10,000 range in the blink of an eye. All the other rookie HOFers, and ultimately HOFers in general, followed suit. Then they both sold their collections, and prices for many key cards took a dive.

So both a bad economy, and the absence of certain serious collectors, will negatively effect the market.

[Brian-Chidester]

Interesting, Barry.

I felt like 2001-2004 was a time when T206 cards on eBay seemed to be selling for an all-time low. It just seemed like, for a while there, interest had waned significantly, and with eBay, suddenly there were a lot of T206s available.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by cmcclelland

In an effort to try to get this thread back to my original issue - what were the reasons for the "dips" in the sportscard market in the past? What role will inflation play on this? What role does the overall economy play? I wish my memory was good enough to remember the exact years when this happened, but we all know there have been periods of time when the values went down significantly. What were some of the causes?

Also, it seems like we haven't seen a significant pullback in values for a while, and I have spent some time wondering how new things like third party grading, ebay, vcp.com, etc. will have an impact on any potential pullback. Could these new elements make a pullback worse, or could they reduce the effect of a potential pullback?

The first big price dip I recall was in the early 1980s. Part was a nasty recession but more was the discovery of so much new to the hobby material. It just overwhelmed demand. I mean, even as a tween/young teen at the time family friends were just handing me boxes of old cards when they found out I collected. I got thousands of cards that way and started running a dealer table at monthly card shows as a result. And you could still get boxes of old cards at antique stores for pennies on the dollar in value. I think the supply situation is much more stable now--cards are not a new collectible category and the low hanging fruit of easy finds are gone. FWIW, I am pleased to see price dips now--great replay of past prices for purchases. I've been getting a lot of great stuff at ridiculously low prices...

[M's_Fan]

The recent recession we are still in definitely created a price dip, but an informal observation is that prices have swung back almost to normal just within the last few months. Just within the last few months I've started losing auctions all over the place. If only my house's value would swing back...

But in terms of inflation investments beyond cards, I've bought some gold coins from a local coin shop, and right now I'm a fan of energy related investments (ticker "VDE" and "VGENX") as well as "TIPS" funds like VIPSX.

But in case things really get bad inflation wise, you gotta have your beans and bullets squared away. For an interesting fiction read on what might happen to the U.S. in a hyperinflation full-scale economic collapse, check out: http://www.amazon.com/Patriots-Novel...8410634&sr=8-1