Drum or Uzit?

[philliesphan]

there are only three possible Uzits, whereas there are six theoretical Drums of Phillies players.

That said, I've been able to acquire three of the [potential] six Drum Phillies, while I've only been able to acquire one Uzit, with that acquisition having been made approximately ten years ago.

Marc

[Chicago206]

Like I said, I do understand it will change from auction to auction, but its the "lopsidedness" of the current auctions thats such a curiosity. For example, if someone told me there would be 6 times as many Drums available as Uzits at the upcoming national, I would say they were nuts to think that. Perhaps this is simply an anomoly, or perhaps Uzits ARE actually a bit easier to find than Drums. But the example in my opening thread is precisely how one goes about making a "scarcity list". He simply looks at available cards for sale in the marketplace over a period of time. The "period of time" part being the variable. If the next 4 or 5 major auctions also show that more Uzits are being made available than Drums, then its time to redo the list, correct?

[scottglevy]

I really am not sure which back is tougher - Drum is tougher based solely on my personal collecting experience. Over the decades my dad and I have owned several thousand T206s and have seen tens of thousands. And if you made me choose one answer, I'd say that Drum is tougher.

I have purchased lots of cards in the past that have had one or more Uzit cards in them, but I've had to specifically seek out a Drum anytime I wanted to own one.

In the same breath, Drums seem to come in mega-finds of 40 or more cards in one shot. I can think of at least two very recent events like this -- I can also think of one event albeit awhile back like that for Uzit.

I don't think that you can draw an accurate conclusion of a back's rarity based simply on the total number being offered in a small string of auctions. If that was true than Carolina Brights would be about as rare as Uzit because not many have been auctioned recently (we clearly know that this is not the case). To use a fancy term, it is not a statistically significant sample size.

It is additionally difficult to assess rarity based on recent sales because rare backs tend to be hoarded. I know of at least 4 advanced collectors that have many copies of every rare back (except for BL460 and Cobb). Some of these collections would make your head spin if you ever saw them in person.

[Chicago206]

"To use a fancy term, it is not a statistically significant sample size."


I agree 110% with this statement.