VCP or SMR?

[BobbyVCP]

If we did that then we would be in violation of our agreement with eBay and can lose our licenses.

[philliesphan]

Surely you can work with Ebay to find a way to capture these sales without violating some agreement. It would be in Ebay's advantage to have a complete set of data.


Just took a random sampling of the last 200 completed items with SGC in the title and priced between $50 and $150. 75 items did not sell, 93 items sold via auction and were recorded by VCP, and 32 items sold via stores and will not be picked up by VCP. That's roughly 25% of completed sales from a small window sample (SGC cards between $50-$150).

Here are some specific examples that are not recorded in VCP and speak to the need for changing the business model:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Charle...item334abe5027

T205 Phillippe: sale price $155
VCP Average for PSA 5: $76.50 (last sale 6/13/10)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-E96-Phila-C...item1e5c8bba2b

E96 Konetchy: sale price $90
VCP average: $71.67 (last sale 2007)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1921-E121-80-Car...item563c68832b

E121 Collins: sale price $275
VCP Average: $225 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-T206-Ty-Cob...item335a065d94

T206 Cobb Bat On: sale price $800
VCP Average: $438 (last sale 2008)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-E91-C-A-Car...item2c54886a72

E91 Wagner: sale price $800
VCP Average: $492.20 (last sale 2007)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Fred-C...item5883805f9f

T205 Clarke: sale price $140
VCP Average: $100.25 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-1911-T206-T...item2ead128d34

T206 Cobb Red: sale price $580
VCP Average: $457 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1934-1936-Diamon...item2ea9c1a03b

1935 Diamond Star Hornsby: sale price $225
VCP Average: $133.50 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/E94-Napoleon-Laj...item4ceff1b638

E94 Lajoie: sale price $1150
VCP Average: no sale history in SGC 30 or PSA 2

[3-2-count]

Marc thanks so much for uploading the data above. This does prove that there is a huge amount of auctions being excluded and not represented on VCP which does in fact make the overall final value incorrect on the product which is registered on VCP. Ebay's selling format has changed greatly since VCP was originally introduced, but it now seems that VCP needs to find a way to follow suit so it picks up these auctions. With so many auctions now on Ebay listed in sellers stores with fixed BIN's in my opinion VCP is missing upwards of 30%+ of all card transactions on Ebay today. Folks that's alot when you take into consideration just how many cards are listed per day, per week, per month!!!

[philliesphan]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

With so many auctions now on Ebay listed in sellers stores with fixed BIN's in my opinion VCP is missing upwards of 30%+ of all card transactions on Ebay today. Folks that's alot when you take into consideration just how many cards are listed per day, per week, per month!!!

Tony -- all the moreso given the fact that many of the fixed BIN sales via Ebay stores transact at significantly greater prices than they might fetch via the auction format. It gives buyers a false sense of valuation, when they enter a potential transaction with the notion "I won't pay more than the latest VCP price", if that price is artificially depressed because it is missing a number of store sales that happened at higher valuations.

[three25hits]

Originally Posted by philliesphan

Surely you can work with Ebay to find a way to capture these sales without violating some agreement. It would be in Ebay's advantage to have a complete set of data.


Just took a random sampling of the last 200 completed items with SGC in the title and priced between $50 and $150. 75 items did not sell, 93 items sold via auction and were recorded by VCP, and 32 items sold via stores and will not be picked up by VCP. That's roughly 25% of completed sales from a small window sample (SGC cards between $50-$150).

Here are some specific examples that are not recorded in VCP and speak to the need for changing the business model:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Charle...item334abe5027

T205 Phillippe: sale price $155
VCP Average for PSA 5: $76.50 (last sale 6/13/10)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-E96-Phila-C...item1e5c8bba2b

E96 Konetchy: sale price $90
VCP average: $71.67 (last sale 2007)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1921-E121-80-Car...item563c68832b

E121 Collins: sale price $275
VCP Average: $225 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-T206-Ty-Cob...item335a065d94

T206 Cobb Bat On: sale price $800
VCP Average: $438 (last sale 2008)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-E91-C-A-Car...item2c54886a72

E91 Wagner: sale price $800
VCP Average: $492.20 (last sale 2007)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Fred-C...item5883805f9f

T205 Clarke: sale price $140
VCP Average: $100.25 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-1911-T206-T...item2ead128d34

T206 Cobb Red: sale price $580
VCP Average: $457 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1934-1936-Diamon...item2ea9c1a03b

1935 Diamond Star Hornsby: sale price $225
VCP Average: $133.50 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/E94-Napoleon-Laj...item4ceff1b638

E94 Lajoie: sale price $1150
VCP Average: no sale history in SGC 30 or PSA 2

Perhaps VCP should be renamed VCPS (Vintage Card Pricer Sometimes).

The only thing worse than no data, is partial data...

[terjung]

So, if I understand correctly...

The accusation is that a significant portion of eBay BIN sales are not making it into VCP data and that these data points conceivably represent prices that are "higher than average." In so doing, VCP would be inadvertantly skewing the data downward by reporting what is likely the midrange and lower end of sales. Thus, the more people use VCP as a "top end" for what they are willing to pay, the more it would contribute a downward spiral of prices. Is that a fair summary of what is being discussed?

Obviously, people's behavior is it is not Bobby's or VCP's fault, but if incomplete data leads to inaccurate "average prices" and people are led to believe that it is accurate, then there is a bigger underlying problem.

[HRBAKER]

So if ebay will not play ball and allow the non-timed sales to be captured, what is the solution? Is some data better than no data?

[Abravefan11]

Even if Bobby could collect the fixed priced sales with no end time his data would still be just be a fraction of the number of sales for any given card in the market. I use his service and realize that it's not every sale of every card, but in most cases it is enough information to make the service of value to me.

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

So if ebay will not play ball and allow the non-timed sales to be captured, what is the solution? Is some data better than no data?

yes.

[HRBAKER]

Originally Posted by Bicem

yes.

My thoughts exactly.

[three25hits]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

So if ebay will not play ball and allow the non-timed sales to be captured, what is the solution? Is some data better than no data?

I say yes IF everyone understands it's partial.

But only with a clear, simple and complete understanding of what's included and what's missing.

People think they are getting VCP but are unknowingly getting VCPS...

[Jay Wolt]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

So if ebay will not play ball and allow the non-timed sales to be captured, what is the solution? Is some data better than no data?

But why wouldn't eBay "Play ball"?
I can understand if they wanted no information changing hands, like some auction houses.
But they allow the release of data via auctions, so really why do they care
if some lots are sold via fixed prices?

[dstudeba]

I don't think eBay will not necessairly "play ball", but it is a general part of their user agreement. Now the information I have is dated, but when I looked into setting up an automated price retrieval service off of eBay completed items (mainly for my own information before VCP or CardPricer existed) I read their user agreement. From my recollection, eBay owned the data and you were not allowed to use that data or harvest it without using their API to avoid people writing programs to get the information for free. It sounds like the API needs some updating to get all of the information. I am sure this is not a problem for only baseball cards. If VCP were my company I would be on the phone with my account manager finding out when I can access this information through the API and if I couldn't figuring out a workaround so I could do it in a licensed manner.

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by philliesphan

Surely you can work with Ebay to find a way to capture these sales without violating some agreement. It would be in Ebay's advantage to have a complete set of data.


Just took a random sampling of the last 200 completed items with SGC in the title and priced between $50 and $150. 75 items did not sell, 93 items sold via auction and were recorded by VCP, and 32 items sold via stores and will not be picked up by VCP. That's roughly 25% of completed sales from a small window sample (SGC cards between $50-$150).

Here are some specific examples that are not recorded in VCP and speak to the need for changing the business model:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Charle...item334abe5027

T205 Phillippe: sale price $155
VCP Average for PSA 5: $76.50 (last sale 6/13/10)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-E96-Phila-C...item1e5c8bba2b

E96 Konetchy: sale price $90
VCP average: $71.67 (last sale 2007)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1921-E121-80-Car...item563c68832b

E121 Collins: sale price $275
VCP Average: $225 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-T206-Ty-Cob...item335a065d94

T206 Cobb Bat On: sale price $800
VCP Average: $438 (last sale 2008)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1910-E91-C-A-Car...item2c54886a72

E91 Wagner: sale price $800
VCP Average: $492.20 (last sale 2007)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Fred-C...item5883805f9f

T205 Clarke: sale price $140
VCP Average: $100.25 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-1911-T206-T...item2ead128d34

T206 Cobb Red: sale price $580
VCP Average: $457 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/1934-1936-Diamon...item2ea9c1a03b

1935 Diamond Star Hornsby: sale price $225
VCP Average: $133.50 (last sale 2009)

http://cgi.ebay.com/E94-Napoleon-Laj...item4ceff1b638

E94 Lajoie: sale price $1150
VCP Average: no sale history in SGC 30 or PSA 2

Wow, you really changed my mind with this one...

However, I really don't need to know how much Levi sold his cards for

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

If we did that then we would be in violation of our agreement with eBay and can lose our licenses.

I understand. Is the problem that the query you send to eBay via the webservice API call requires an ending date in order to return results?