What pre war issue has taken the biggest price plunge over the past 12-18 months?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Orioles1954

Is this simply an economy issue or did the huge prices drive some collectors to sell their collections early, only not to return? In other words, has the pre-war hobby as a whole shrunk over the past couple of years?

There is absolutely no doubt a few high profile collectors (spenders) have got out of the pre-war hobby, or are at an idle at best. That being said, with the number of new registrations on this board (several today and as said, 60+ per month) it doesn't look to be shrinking to me. I think it could even be gaining some folks. Those folks might even be a little younger and not have too much discretionary income yet. My glass is half full though. Or maybe the new registrations are due to the new general chat section .....

[ChiefBenderForever]

It could be a shift going on where the older generation is slowly getting out and the new one is slowly getting in, and right now the majority of the new ones getting in are really only focused on T206 but will eventually branch out into other type cards. I remember it wasn't to long ago people were asking where all the E cards were and then a lot of them became available but will slowly end up back in collections making supply less. I am kind of surprised at the prices of Goudeys as it has always been a blue chip set. So another good question is will the T206 drop or go up, or just maintain. Will T206 touger back prices come back down, I don't see that happening !

[Bilko G]

Originally Posted by Leon

Or maybe the new registrations are due to the new general chat section .....

It could also be do to you posting on FCB lately and this site getting some positive publicity from it.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Bilko G

It could also be do to you posting on FCB lately and this site getting some positive publicity from it.

Well, from the skirmish and bath I took over there, concerning my feelings on Michael Vick, I don't know . But hey, whatever brings people to pre-war is good I guess. I do feel it is like many posters on this board have said, collectors start collecting the new stuff and work their way back to things that will hold value and maybe interest a little longer. I started out, as an adult, collecting rookie HOF'ers so had plenty of 50s-60s cards, then got tired of those and worked my way back to pre-war, which I enjoy immensely.

[Touch'EmAll]

I got toasted selling a Diamond Stars Foxx PSA 8 on ebay while back - no more! No more! No more!

From now on, in this market, its only major HOF'ers in T206 set! They honestly do stand up to a bad economy better than any other.

And PSA 8 Hank Aaron's appear to still be getting decent prices (I still have my run).

Other than that - you take your life in your own hands - roll the dice - and hope your purchases don't decline in value.

A great value these days are, don't laugh, early 1970's high end graded HOF'ers. They keep the collecting urge bright, don't cost too much, and have loads of memories with Reggie Jackson, Seaver, Ryan and the crowd.

Steve

[Exhibitman]

It's the economy IMHO because the effects are too widespread to be the result of a few collectors or 'investors' bailing out.

--People who lost their jobs obviously are out.

--People whose businesses took a hit aren't buying.

--People who may not have taken any direct hits still are panicky and holding on to their wallets.

--Dealers who are undercapitalized are liquidating inventory to raise cash.

I don't think the loss of a few collectors with megabucks would act as a downdraft on the rest of the market, any more than the death of a big collector or two affect the entire card market. It's the middle class buyers who are missing.

And I'd not underestimate the side effects of VCP: many buyers won't pay more than the last sale price as reported in VCP and usually offer slightly less for Ebay BINS, which acts as a deflationary pressure on prices.

FWIW, my research on boxing card prices for the next ed. of my book shows that the market for those cards bottomed out last fall and has shown small gains since then.

[bbcard1]

I stand by what I have always said. My baseball cards are my wife's problem as she has to decide what to do with them when I'm gone.

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

It's the economy IMHO because the effects are too widespread to be the result of a few collectors or 'investors' bailing out.

--People who lost their jobs obviously are out.

--People whose businesses took a hit aren't buying.

--People who may not have taken any direct hits still are panicky and holding on to their wallets.

--Dealers who are undercapitalized are liquidating inventory to raise cash.

I don't think the loss of a few collectors with megabucks would act as a downdraft on the rest of the market, any more than the death of a big collector or two affect the entire card market. It's the middle class buyers who are missing.

And I'd not underestimate the side effects of VCP: many buyers won't pay more than the last sale price as reported in VCP and usually offer slightly less for Ebay BINS, which acts as a deflationary pressure on prices.

FWIW, my research on boxing card prices for the next ed. of my book shows that the market for those cards bottomed out last fall and has shown small gains since then.

Good analysis.

[Fred]

Good points Adam, our thoughts are "in the same corner".

I try to keep things in perspective. I'm not buying this stuff as an investment. I buy this stuff because I enjoy it. Honestly, I'm really enjoying watching the prices drop because it makes it the "habit" more affordable.

If the card market followed the DJIA then the cards would be going up in price rather than receding. I would have to guess that, overall, all of the collectibles markets are taking a hit.

[vintagecpa]

That is an interesting statement about VCP. It makes a ton of sense. It is a case of almost too much info.