Investment Q...

[FrankWakefield]

I here can offer a meaningful opinion...

The Cobb will be appreciate more, relative to the appreciation in price of the Demmitt.


Cobb is a top tier HOFer. Demand for cards contemporary with when he played increases, at an increasing rate. The Demmitt card is only sought by those who are attempting some level of completion with T206s (520 or more). It seems to me that while some folks attempt that, or pace themselves in that direction; there isn't a growing number of serious T206 set collectors. Folks chase HOFers, a team, portraits, all of one back...

Mr. Lipset's vol 3 of The Encyclopedia of Baseball Cards has mention of values of T cards in a Price Guide on page 110. These prices are circa 1986.

Wagner 22,000
Plank 4,500
Magie 2,000
O'Hara 500
Demmitt 500
Elberfeld Wash 225
HOFer 25
Cobb red 200
Cobb green 300
Johnson 100

Somewhere I have a list, based on price lists and sales lists for the white border tobacco cards; that show prices from the 50's to the 90's. Green Cobbs have overtaken Demmitt's in value.

Now if almost no new collectors enter the hobby, and we die off, then we may well get back to Demmitt's being worth more. I think there are fewer of them, than the green Cobb's, but it isn't simple supply and demand. Folks are after Cobb even though they might not know much about him. There's lots of demand for his cards. Few folks, even among collectors, know about the college boy from Illinois who hit .301 under Hughie Jennings with the Baltimore Orioles in his first season of professional baseball. Or that out there in that Orioles outfielder was another guy who'd be depicted in those great white border tobacco cards... Bill O'Hara. Now who here knew Demmitt and O'Hara were team-mates?

Demmitt's card is less plentiful than the green Cobb. But the green Cobb has MUCH more demand, it'll sell for more.

[glchen]

I think I agree that a top tier HOFer in higher condition will appreciate more than a short print like Demmitt. There will be more demand for the Cobb in higher condition. It's an interesting question because Demmitt is part of the Big Six (? or 7, 8, etc) of the T206, so there is still some cache to the card as opposed to a Nodgrass card. I would wonder which would appreciate more, a Doyle Nat'l in poor condition or a Cobb in higher condition (say 7/8) but equivalent value. Here the Doyle is in even scarcer short print and is in the Big 4. I think in this case the Doyle would probably be better.

[fkw]

Neither card is "Rare", but the Cobb (red) is actually probably the most common prewar card in existence, with a few thousand out there floating around and many sold every single day.

Values on T206 cards in low to mid grade will stay the same roughly, they sell now (raw) for basically what they have sold for over the last 20 years.

If you want to buy a lower/mid grade card and flip for profit a few years from now, buy a rare "type" card, not a T206.
And obviously the price you initially pay is going to make a difference in how much profit you may make when you flip it. If you pay top $$ or overpay, you may not make a penny.

[ls7plus]

Very interesting and persuasive analysis by both Franks. Price appreciation, in my humble opinion and after through study, is generally a factor of (1) scarity or rarity; (2) significance; and (3) condition. I would agree that the answer will really depend upon whether the population of Cobb collectors grows faster than that of those collecting T206 relative rarities such as Demmitt. Interestingly, even Hager's 1995 Sixsport Certified Price Guide (yeah, yeah, I know, its Hager, but he had the right idea with regard to what was really going to become valuable even in times prior to that, when the hobby was running amok with modern rookie card fever!) would seem to indicate that Demmitt is losing that race, after an early lead. At least for now.

I generally put a higher value on upper-tier hall-of-famers such as Cobb, but I like mine quite a bit rarer, and don't have much interest in an example that, as Frank Ward suggests, exists in the thousands.

Nice pic, Peter.

Very thought provoking.

Larry