The Next 100K Card

[ls7plus]

Within the next 15 years, I would bet on even the 1907 W600 Cobb in the PSA 1 (Mk) condition as it appears in the current Goodwin auction--it's almost certainly Cobb's toughest rookie, and possibly rarer than the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth (it would also be very interesting to know just how many of the 1907 Dietsche Fielding Position Cobbs are lurking out there ungraded--if not many at all, then an example like I believe Jeff has--PSA 5(?), great eye appeal--would have a shot to explode like the T210 Jackson did. Post cards are just beginning to get their due as true baseball cards, and PSA has graded just 5 of these, compared to six of the T210 Old Mill Jacksons). The W600 Cobb is currently approaching $25,000 (with buyer's premium factored in). Even if it only held that, it would only have to double twice in the next 15 years to get to $100K. That's only 9.6% compounded annually--top shelf collectibles often do 12-15% or better. For the same mathematical reasons, the 1911 T5 Pinkerton Joe Jackson (currently approaching $30K with buyer's premium in the Goodwin auction) could easily get there within that time.

Other prime candidates would include the E107 Breisch Williams Mathewson and Young (believe Wagner's there already, and I think Young has already topped $60K). Obviously, some condition rarities of upper echelon hall-of-famers from the T206, Cracker Jack and Goudey sets that haven't made it yet could easily do so (but as I've posted before, I personally am very leery of these, because we may not know how far ahead the card doctors are of the graders until it's too late--make mine rare in any grade!).

I also personally like rare variations, such as top T206 stars in nice condition, with excellent eye appeal, with rare backs, and others. A PSA 4 T206 Red Portrait Cobb with rare Hindu back sold for $38,187 in 2009. That card need only appreciate at a rate of just 6.3% compounded annually to meet the magic mark in 15 years. Proof cards of major hall-of-famers may also make a nice market for themselves in the future, just as patterns did in coins. Collectors like 'em RARE!

In addition, some of the rarer Ruths might well make the cut, such as the 1933 Buttercream Babe, as well as other ultra rare Ruths (Oops--the Butter Cream Babe has sold for $111, 625 in a 2008 REA auction already--but you see my point--rarity( 2 known) + significance (it's the Babe) = big $$$).

Good thread--would be nice to dig this one up 15 years from now.

Larry