REA open for bidding!

[Bosox Blair]

Guys, this activity on day 1 is not a surprise, is it?

The auction rules say you can only bid in overtime if you previously bid on the lot. So it just plain makes sense to put in as many bids as you can on the first day and let yourself be outbid on them all (probably by others doing the same thing). That allows you to sit back and see how bidding goes on all the lots you are interested in, and you can jump in on any of them in overtime...which is the only time that really counts. The opening bids are all many increments below market value, so nobody should expect their early bid to hold up. This has also happened the last couple years in REA.

But once the lot approaches market value, you can expect there will be almost no more bidding until overtime. I have watched this happen on many lots over the last few years of REA auctions.

I'm not saying 2011 won't be a year for high prices at REA (maybe it will). I'm just saying that day 1 activity from this auction is a useless tool for trying to predict final prices.

Cheers,
Blair

[calvindog]

No matter what happens on that first day, on that horrible Sunday morning in a month we'll all be crowded into the chatroom at 3:30 am pissing and moaning about how late it is and when will Rob shut the auction down and wasn't last year 3:45 and the year before 3:37 and blah blah blah blah. None of this ends very well for any of us.

[Rob D.]

Originally Posted by calvindog

No matter what happens on that first day, on that horrible Sunday morning in a month we'll all be crowded into the chatroom at 3:30 am pissing and moaning about how late it is and when will Rob shut the auction down and wasn't last year 3:45 and the year before 3:37 and blah blah blah blah. None of this ends very well for any of us.

On the bright side: It's the only day of the year when Net54 members outnumber Egyptian rebels in the chat room.

[Jewish-collector]

It's so simple. He who bids the most will win.

[tbob]

Originally Posted by rob d.

on the bright side: It's the only day of the year when net54 members outnumber egyptian rebels in the chat room.

lol. :d

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by calvindog

No matter what happens on that first day, on that horrible Sunday morning in a month we'll all be crowded into the chatroom at 3:30 am pissing and moaning about how late it is and when will Rob shut the auction down and wasn't last year 3:45 and the year before 3:37 and blah blah blah blah. None of this ends very well for any of us.

agreed... can't wait!

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

Guys, this activity on day 1 is not a surprise, is it?

Blair - Qualifying bids are expected. What is surprising is that people have already entered their ceiling bids on day 1. I got the 'your bid was automatically outbid' message several times yesterday. It doesn't bother me, because in the end whoever is willing to pay more will win the lot, but it is surprising.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by Matt

Blair - Qualifying bids are expected. What is surprising is that people have already entered their ceiling bids on day 1. I got the 'your bid was automatically outbid' message several times yesterday. It doesn't bother me, because in the end whoever is willing to pay more will win the lot, but it is surprising.

Hi Matt,

I wonder how much of this is a "blocking" strategy. By this I mean that I would much rather go into overtime with only one or two other qualifying bidders against me than 5-7. So if I personally place a number of those preliminary "under market" bids, that blocks another person from putting in that bid as a marker bid to qualify for O/T.

Not knowing what is going on with other bidders - such as how their other bid lots are running up, how their finances are looking, how much they really want the lot etc. - I'd rather face fewer competitors, despite the fact that I know it only takes one other to run up the price.

(Barry S. and I debated the usefulness of this kind of strategy last year...he doubts it makes a difference, but I feel it might.)

Cheers,
Blair

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

Hi Matt,

I wonder how much of this is a "blocking" strategy. By this I mean that I would much rather go into overtime with only one or two other qualifying bidders against me than 5-7. So if I personally place a number of those preliminary "under market" bids, that blocks another person from putting in that bid as a marker bid to qualify for O/T.

Not knowing what is going on with other bidders - such as how their other bid lots are running up, how their finances are looking, how much they really want the lot etc. - I'd rather face fewer competitors, despite the fact that I know it only takes one other to run up the price.

(Barry S. and I debated the usefulness of this kind of strategy last year...he doubts it makes a difference, but I feel it might.)

Cheers,
Blair

There are lots of strategies to bidding. I know from running our own auctions that a lot, if not most, of the first day bids are markers. The only time they wouldn't be, and here is the real strategy, is if someone got one of the first bids in and made it a straight bid to their max...in other words, say there is a $2000 card you really want and it's starting at $200. There are no bids yet and you do a straight bid, before any others, and put it at $1800 (w/o BP). That would be a strategy to block others and one that I have used infrequently, but have definitely used. That locks out other bidders from getting in later unless they want to go above your max. I remember many years ago, and I have told this story before, I called Lew on the first day of his auction. He had the E94 overprints x 8 as one lot. There might have been one bid but I don't think there were any. I asked him if I could raise the bid to anything I wanted. He said yes as long as it was above the next increment. I said, ok. The lot was at either $1000 or $1100...... I said take it to $8000. He thought I was crazy because at the time the overprints hadn't taken off. The bid held from that 1st day until the end and I won them for that amount, plus BP. I locked everyone else out with that strategy unless they wanted to jump me which would have been crazy at the time given what the cards were going for. regards

[ethicsprof]

my chief strategy is to wait until the catalogue arrives.
it's tough on me but gives me incredibly focused inner strength.

best,
barry

[tbob]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

Guys, this activity on day 1 is not a surprise, is it?

I'm not saying 2011 won't be a year for high prices at REA (maybe it will). I'm just saying that day 1 activity from this auction is a useless tool for trying to predict final prices.

Cheers,
Blair

Blair- I agree but the large number of bids is an indicator that collectors want to be able to be eligible to bid on the last night and might be an indicator of late activity, I guess we'll see.
tbob

[Leon]

Originally Posted by tbob

Blair- I agree but the large number of bids is an indicator that collectors want to be able to be eligible to bid on the last night and might be an indicator of late activity, I guess we'll see.
tbob

Ya never know where bids will end up on the last night/morning. No doubt most of the first bids are marker bids and it does look like some folks put in max bids, as I was outbid on some instantly. I have had bids hold up from day one though....it just depends on the item. If it is a rare back T206 going for 1/5 of the money it should, you can count on it not holding up. If it is more niche or esoteric, it actually could. It's always interesting to see how long my bids will hold. It's sort of funny too in that if they all held up I would be looking for a second mortgage . "Non paying bidder?".....how about "Can't afford to pay- Bidder" ......Good luck to all who go for something. Of course I have my eye on a lot or two so please stay away from those. It's all those high grade cards I am after....

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by Leon

It's sort of funny too in that if they all held up I would be looking for a second mortgage

I'd say you are not alone, sir!

Cheers,
Blair

[Orions father]

I was a little surprised on the amounts of bids already also. I would have to agree with tbob that it is a decent indicator of a possible strong finish. If 5 to 7 people already put in a bid on an item, a day before the auction was advertised to start, I would reason that those people want to be in early to be able to go into the extended bidding. It only takes two serious bidders to make a consigner happy. Hopefully not wishful thinking.

[deadballera]

I placed bids on a few items...notified that I was the high bidder.

Within 5 minutes, was outbid on all of them. WOW !!!

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by tbob

Blair- I agree but the large number of bids is an indicator that collectors want to be able to be eligible to bid on the last night and might be an indicator of late activity, I guess we'll see.
tbob

Hi Bob,

Definitely if I was Rob L. or a consignor, I'd be encouraged to see big bidding activity from the start.

Cheers,
Blair