A new breed of whale

[Matt]

I think we had this thread already a month ago.

Originally Posted by Yankeefan51

It is evident that a new "whale" has entered our little ocean. He or she has an eye for greatness and a pocket filled with cash.

Why do you presume there is only 1? Could be 3 or 4 new players.

[wonkaticket]

Why is it that when cards go for more than certain folks assume they will go for, it’s chalked up to “whales” or some other silly title as the cause for a price increase?

Can’t it simply be that the market is bearing an increase in a category and the prices are reflecting just that an increase?

I used to be able to get all sorts of things for way below what I pay today for certain things sometimes that’s just the nature of the beast. While I think a few folks can have an effect on prices in a market they can’t be totally responsible for all market swings.

I also think a lot of folk speculate about this stuff because many of these items have passed them by and they are looking for an excuse or something to make them feel better about losing. Bottom line I stopped caring about certain items long ago because they have simply passed me by.

I don’t put a lot of thought or think that if a few folks fell out of any mix I’m snagging T206 Wagner’s in VG for a 100k again. If there are a few guys keeping me from having my Wagner at an affordable price to me please let me know who they are….

You know in Philly as the ol’ Italians say hey accidents happen all the time… (Sorry spent the weekend watching the Godfather trilogy again).

Cheers,

John

P.S. Bruce your list keeps asking for this card quite a few have gone off FYI.

http://www.goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=18542

[barrysloate]

There certainly could be more than one collector going after the Negro League stuff. Look, it's a marketplace, and there are people willing to spend a lot of money to get the best material. It's always been like that and always will be. If you want the best stuff you have to be prepared to pay up for it.

[triwak]

I just hate the timing aspect of this. Was sorta hoping to "complete" my HOF set in the next year or two, and I'm only lacking 4-5 Negro Leaguers. They appear to be out of reach for the time being. Aw well, patience...

[Preece1]

I don't see any new "whales", I just think the "deals" that could be had on the negro league material are gone now that 1) more people have become interested in the amazing negro league players, and 2) people are finally starting to realize how rare this material is compared to like major league material. Take the Mendez Puch card in the Hakes auction; a great hall of famer where there are only two copies of his rookie card in existence, one with a backing and the one without that was just auctioned off. Given this level of rarity, was < $30K out of market? Another example is the Crawford Josh Gibson photo from 1928. This item beats by 3 years any other photo of Josh Gibson and it also went for under $30K. Are these items, and like bids out of market given the relative scarcity?

[aljurgela]

I won the Punch Mendez and the Billiken Charleston and a couple other items, but I am much more of a dolphin than a whale and already have an extensive negro league/cuban card collection - not a new entrant. I was extremely surprised at some of the strength of some of the pricing (punch padron and chicho)... but the cards, for all of the talk, are still quite reasonabley priced, IMO. As someone else mentioned, when there are only two "rookie" cards of Mendez, is $30k really that high? My sense is that if we did a poll, we would find many distinct winners of the carrs and I am still of the opinion that most of the cuban issues from 1909 to 1928 are undervalued. Just my two cents.

I think that the story is different with the the strength in the photos/postcards. I believe this to be mainly due to a new entrant. On the photos, I have serious doubt if anyone had a legitimate shot of winning any photo of quality these days. It seems that any photo around the historical pricing is immediately bid up beyond the historical pricing by 20% before the acution really starts.

On the other hand, I have seen nothing close to the quality of the Willie Foster photograph nor the importance of the Josh Gibson Crawfords photo. You could certainly make a case that these pieces went low, but I am not as comfortable placing value on photographs when compared to cards. I was the underbidder on the CAG postcard and was very nervous of my bid, but when I was immediately outbid it was clear to me that it did not matter what I bid on the postcard, I was going to lose.

Bottom line to me... if you like the cards, you still have a shot.... if you want photos... you may have to wait. I am seriously thinking of listing the photos that I have...

[wonkaticket]

Patrick very well said I agree 100%.

Al congrats on the amazing items and kudos to you.

Cheers,

John

[Matt]

Al - congrats on the Billiken Charleston - I was the underbidder. Given the trimming, I was expecting it to go under where it did.

Your market cap angle is interesting; certainly a different way to look at things. Of course, to your question at the end - "Was Satchel Paige more than “twice” the pitcher that Mendez was?" presumes that the quality of the player is the driver for discrepancy in market cap; obviously things like how many people collect a given issue also feed heavily into the demand for a player - no doubt there are more 1948 Leaf and 1953 Topps set collectors then there are Punch/Billiken/Aguilitas collectors, so the pool of total dollars available for Paige is certainly going to be much higher then it is for Mendez.