The Cincinnati Wagner "Graded"

[barrysloate]

Even if the cost went into six figures, a single high grade Wagner would foot the whole bill. Everything after that would be profit. What would happen to the hobby if such a scenario were realized?

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Even if the cost went into six figures, a single high grade Wagner would foot the whole bill. Everything after that would be profit. What would happen to the hobby if such a scenario were realized?

Clearly the concern you express is correct, and it is scary. The implication, which we are already starting to see with respect to alterations, is that without provenance, "new find" Wagners may hold little value. For example, cards with a strong pedigree (e.g., Lionel Carter collection) will sell for premiums, which in time may become greater and greater.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Clearly the concern you express is correct, and it is scary. The implication, which we are already starting to see with respect to alterations, is that without provenance, "new find" Wagners may hold little value. For example, cards with a strong pedigree (e.g., Lionel Carter collection) will sell for premiums, which in time may become greater and greater.

The price could go down just by printing entire sheets

Since legit graders like SGC can spot trims, they should be able to spot the sheet cuts in the future - PSA could also, but would they? (shut up Scott). Also, in the far future the paper fiber may still be very difficult to 'disguise' as old. I don't know about dating ink.

One thing forgers have going for them is that no one's going to want to give up ink or fiber samples for testing.

[Vintagedegu]

-

[drc]

I don't believe that. Modern printing definitely does make a better and better representation of a T206 at the eye level, but more and more different at the microscopic level. Under the microscope, a laser printer looks nothing like 1909 lithography, and it is at the microscopic level that you identify and date the printing.

Now the way one could fool would be to make a fantasy item (totally made up, not a copy) using the old lithography techniques. In art schools, you can learn how to make stone lithographs. This is where provenance would be important.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by drc

I don't believe that. Modern printing definitely does make a better and better representation of a T206 at the eye level, but more and more different at the microscopic level. Under the microscope, a laser printer looks nothing like 1909 lithography, and it is at the microscopic level that you identify and date the printing.

Now the way one could fool would be to make a fantasy item (totally made up, not a copy) using the old lithography techniques. In art schools, you can learn how to make stone lithographs. This is where provenance would be important.

??? That's what we were talking about (duplicating the litho process).

Hey, it's only 1:15!!! coffee?

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by drc

Now the way one could fool would be to make a fantasy item (totally made up, not a copy) using the old lithography techniques. In art schools, you can learn how to make stone lithographs. This is where provenance would be important.

David,

Glad to see your post. As I recall you were the source of most of the expert information in the earlier thread. Do you think it would ever be possible to so well create a new card that it could pass forensic dating?

[barrysloate]

Given the technology we have today, with smart phones, I Pads, satellites headed deep into outer space...you're telling me it would be impossible to reproduce a T206? I can't imagine that couldn't be tackled even today. It's just paper and ink.

[benjulmag]

I would think though that to pass muster with forensic dating, every material of which the card is composed must not only not contain any substance that was not commercially available in 1909, but must also match up perfectly with the substance cocktail of which T206s are composed. I can see how the cost to do this, as well as comply with all other forensic tests (e.g., dot matrix pattern) could be quite large. And it would seem to me if someone knew to do this, I'm not sure counterfeiting Wagners would be the most profitable thing to counterfeit. After all, in addition to everybody's radar being up when a previously unknown Wagner surfaces, the fact that they would be turning up at a certain rate in and of itself will be a basis for suspicion. Therefore there would be a very limited number of times a counterfeiter would be able to go to the well on this with that in and of itself not becoming a cause for insurmountable suspicion.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

I would think though that to pass muster with forensic dating, every material of which the card is composed must not only not contain any substance that was not commercially available in 1909, but must also match up perfectly with the substance cocktail of which T206s are composed. I can see how the cost to do this, as well as comply with all other forensic tests (e.g., dot matrix pattern) could be quite large. And it would seem to me if someone knew to do this, I'm not sure counterfeiting Wagners would be the most profitable thing to counterfeit. After all, in addition to everybody's radar being up when a previously unknown Wagner surfaces, the fact that they would be turning up at a certain rate in and of itself will be a basis for suspicion. Therefore there would be a very limited number of times a counterfeiter would be able to go to the well on this with that in and of itself not becoming a cause for insurmountable suspicion.

Anyone remember 1984 Star #101 Jordan's, when out of the original supposed print run of 4,000, it seemed like 14,000 were still out there after they caught fire in the early to mid-'90's? Or the 1985 Chong Modesto A's McGwire, when, despite a supposed original print run of 250 or so, they were everywhere during and after 1998? Up goes supply, down goes $$$ value.

As one that prefers to see the glass half-full, however, I believe that whenever something like a card is produced by a different process and/or with different materials than the original, there will be differences. With technological advances, those differences may be difficult to detect, but I am convinced that they will indeed be detectable. The costs of detection may rise considerably, however. Invest in grading companies now??? A most interesting proposition to discuss (not the investment in TPG companies, but the detectability issue itself). The same concerns would seem to apply equally to the coin collecting field, with the possibility of using computers to conceivably re-create dies to stamp out coins of famous rarities, like the 1804 silver dollar, 1913 liberty head nickel, etc., assuming you could also duplicate the metalurgical contents of the planchets from which the coins themselves are struck by the dies. At the moment, there are a lot more coins that have sold for $100,000 plus than cards, and quite a few collections have sold for sums into 8 figures. There's a lot of money at stake there, and at stake here. In such circumstances, the financing necessary to devise counter-measures of detection will be in place, almost regardless of the expense. Different processes and times of manufacture will leave different footprints, IMO.

May your collecting always be a prosperous proposition, even as to those that think I should find a new hobby after more than 20 years!

Larry

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Given the technology we have today, with smart phones, I Pads, satellites headed deep into outer space...you're telling me it would be impossible to reproduce a T206? I can't imagine that couldn't be tackled even today. It's just paper and ink.

The problem is that the resulting litho card has to have dot patterns that result in an image close enough to the real thing to fool someone like me or you, so that they can be sold as real. And even closer to matching the real t206 dot patterns exactly, so that it can fool the grading companies.

I think the second criteria will require a computer to control the ink application, since each dot in the original image has to be mapped (using a computer), then applied (again using a computer). I doubt that's possible today, but no doubt it will be in the future.

[steve B]

The thing is that the technology to detect it is already getting cheaper.

On TV I saw a show by the twins from antiques roadshow. One item they needed to know if it was ancient chineese bronze or new stuff. So they got out the portable spectrograph! Results in about as much time as it takes to scan a card and no tiny sample to destroy.

A friend of mine worked building spectrographs years ago, and I knew they were expensive. So I did some looking, and a setup like they used on TV was only $30,000 instead of the mid 6 figure and up prices I recall.

If a high grade Wagner was found having the spectrograph results would be cheap considering the price.

Steve B

[ls7plus]

Thanks, Steve--very interesting!

Best always,

Larry

[joeadcock]

Barry

I would guess the 2 owners of the card will wait awhile(?who knows how long), and this story will die down.

Then the Wager ACA card will likely pop up on ebay for a very large amt of money as a BUY IT NOW. If no takers, they may auction it off as a legitimately graded card. Legitimate that is to ACA. And no doubt someone will pay hundreds to perhaps thousand(s) for it(though none of the board members)

This card on ebay will fuel hope in someone that they may actually have a Wagner for a lot less money than they could every afford. That person will have bought a fake.

When (not if) this happens, I doubt the owners would fade. They may try it again(since it worked the first time), with another card of value(i.e. Plank T206, or Lajoie Goudey). Probably use ACA again if it is still around and if the Wagner does not expose them by that time. This time, they will likely do it privately(without much fanfare)

[barrysloate]

You're probably right. They will look for some venue that might work for them. It might be ebay, it might be one of those small country auctions like they tried the first time around. This story won't have a happy ending, but I'm sure these guys will try to sell it.

[glynparson]

sIMILAR CARD BOARD SAME PLATES, big DIFFERENCE FROM THIS PIECE OF CRAP, AGAIN IF YOU NEED A LOUPE FOR THIS CARD YOU DONT KNOW CRAP ABOUT CARDS, SORRY Larry but since i dont sell anymore i actually can be more honest, about what is know a hobby and something I do love and am passionate about. There are alterations and even a few counterfeits that need louping but the overwhelming majority have a number of signs that give them away as fraudulent before you ever need to pick up a loupe. I am willing to bet over 90% of fakes are deemed as such at grading companies before they ever pick up a loupe. You can discredit authenticity without one, however on something like wagner or a mantle 52 many may need one before unequivocally authenticating.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by joeadcock

Barry

I would guess the 2 owners of the card will wait awhile(?who knows how long), and this story will die down.

Then the Wager ACA card will likely pop up on ebay for a very large amt of money as a BUY IT NOW.

It looks like 6months is the length of time that Cobb and Edwards waited with their fake Wagner. Also you were right it will end up on ebay.

http://www.honuswagnerauction.com/

I know people are getting tired of this story, but I still find it interesting until there is an end (more than likely the two selling it, then ending up in jail for fraud).

This website they started for their auction just seems to give more evidence as to the card being fake. In particular the page they have named "Rosary Dot Matrix info". I have never seen a close up of this card before, but now that they have given a close up of the card it is even funnier. Why wouldn't they compare it to another t206 instead of a postcard? Because it doesn't have the same printing!

I know everyone here knows it is a fake, but we need to keep posting these posts whenever it is going up for sale to fight "News" articles that pop up like these that popped up today:
PRWeb
This article has even been picked up by yahoo news as well as other outlets that are publishing the news article from prweb.