T206 backs will continue to go up?

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Leon

I wonder if most of the yes answers are the back collectors?

Good point. The guys who collect them say "yes", and the ones who don't vote "no". Maybe that question should have been part of the poll, because it is important information.

[barrysloate]

To answer Pete's question, brown Hindus and BL350 are not rare and are currently selling for obscene prices. That doesn't mean they won't get more expensive, but they seem to be grossly overpriced. But I don't make the market.

[marcdelpercio]

The most remarkable to me have been the brown Hindus. I posted a few lower grade commons about a year ago, looking for around $100 each (cash or trade) and had no takers. Now I'm seeing similar cards go for 3-4x that amount. I have always thought that some of the middle-tier backs (EPDG, Tolstoi, Cycle, AB) were a bit undervalued so I thought a slight price adjustment was due for those. However I do think that the outrageous prices on some of the others will come back down to earth, probably just as rapidly as they rose.

[ChiefBenderForever]

And even though it's just one person who is working on the master set, prices immediatley started to go up when he started buying anything he didn't have. With several people looking for cards for him how many were bidding against each other trying to get the cards he needed ? Again just one person but one person can make a huge difference in price and create an inflated situation where everyone starts jumping on the bandwagon driving up demand/price.

[Gradedcardman]

I agree with Barry that at some point the prices on the rarer backs will come down. The mid level backs I think will level off and continue to carry a premium but not more than a 2x-4x depending on player. Supply and demand ultimately decide the value of everything, in time it will all sort itself out.

[Vegas-guy]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Good point. The guys who collect them say "yes", and the ones who don't vote "no". Maybe that question should have been part of the poll, because it is important information.

I don't collect the backs and I voted "yes" There will always be people looking for the "rare" things. And as more and more people start to collect they will only go up because of demand. Just my .02 cents

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Vegas-guy

I don't collect the backs and I voted "yes" There will always be people looking for the "rare" things. And as more and more people start to collect they will only go up because of demand. Just my .02 cents

Reg- I agree rare things do tend to go up in value, but some of the backs showing a huge increase aren't rare. Drums and Uzits are very difficult backs indeed; brown Hindu, EPDG, American Beauty are not. They are less common than Piedmont and Sweet Cap, but they aren't rare.

Edited to add that with regard to Leon's Young portrait with Brown Hindu back, that's kind of special and I would say there's a good chance it will hold its value. Seems to me there will always be a strong market for a card like that.

[Ronnie73]

I voted yes, and I am a T206 back collector. I think they will continue to rise in price but then fall back a bit. There has been alot of interest during the past few years in the T206 set with it now being 100 years old and Topps putting out their newer version of the T206's with original inserts. I just feel that there are alot of newer T206 collectors that didn't pay much attention to them before and that their extra bids and interest may be driving up the prices.

[smtjoy]

IMO the rapid rise in value is most likely a collector with deep pockets has decided to work on a T-206 Master Set, when this person is bidding all out for every tough back, they all start to go up crazy but in time as they have more and more of the mid backs they will go down but if they are going all out for every drum and uzit that hits the market, prices on the hardest ones might not go down for a long, long time, or really till the day the collection sells or they stop buying.

As a back collector in M101-4/5's if one whale collector decided to buy every Gimbels, HtH, Everybodys, etc and work on a master set of all backs of all players, because these sets only have like 0-2 copies of each card the prices would rise fast and stay there. In effect all the type, team and player collectors would be locked out and would drive the market up pretty fast. If I can't get a Mall Theater for $500 then next time ill bid $600, that doesn't work then the next time $650 and so on until a dupe shows up if never they just keep going up.

[toppcat]

I think this board has contributed in a major ways to the awareness and growing popularity of T206 backs. I also think more people are collecting these backs than many of you might realize, either for a back run or acquiring certain players with all backs. I suspect this trend will continue.

At one point I was going for a back run but decided not to complete it and sold off a few of the tougher backs I had. My T206 focus is now on Brooklyn only but I can always do a run of backs in the team set if I get the urge again, plus some folks like Teddy Z. have collected a set in one back type or another so there are at least four different ways to collect the backs, which will keep them in play for quite a while. There are not too many other sets like T206 as we all know and the backs are one reason the Monster remains the king of sets.

[philliesphan]

I collect T206 backs, but I put most of my rare backs together 5-10 years ago.

Frankly, a 520 card T206 "set" is fairly easy to do. If you have the money, you could probably put together that sort of set in a week or two. The backs provide a differentiating factor that brings rarity to the equation in a way that the fronts do not.

Unless one of the uber back collectors decides to sell off, I don't see any reason that valuations will decline. Even the finds of Uzit and Drums over the past three or four years have done nothing to diminish the rise in prices. If anything, you can argue that greater accessibility helped foster greater demand.

[mrvster]

Leon,


Great thread, and all the other posts were well thought out and brought up great points, WE NEED JIM R AND TIM TO CHIME IN.....brown hindus and broadleafs are off the charts the last year, i see them leveling off a bit , but not going down just slowly appreciating but not at the rate of the last year....

btw i voted yes.....

as you know i love the scrap/freaks, but my supply has dried up, so i am focusing on some of the tougher backs to fill my addiction...hence another competitor me also driving up prices

simple economics=supply and demand...

the supply will change as collector focus changes,(some collectors will move some and start selling) the actual supply will, of course, remain constantly the same since no more can be printed and unless huge discoveries deflate some of the rarer backs, they will continue to rise!! unless everyone decided to flood the market all at once and start selling all there rarities as long as demand increases, or remains consistent..as long as the collectors desire the t206 rarities(which i only see the rising interest as pointed out in previous posts)..

Popularity of the set just increases every year, so more competition for the supply will continue to "push" prices up....i see the cards (rarer), appreciating at a greater rate than inflation % wise....this also might make for a good investment(yes, unfortunately they are "tiny" stocks), but unless your buying low and selling high, you might be just a humble collector not looking to make cash in the short run.....some would stronly disagree as investment potential, but the proof is in the pudding....it would be coins or gold/silver for me if i wasn't addicted


We would need actual data to trend the back increases, i can almost guarentee if you plotted the rarer back over the last ten year period, all of the trends lines would be a solid increase year to year, with very few staying the same(common backs because less of a demand, more of a supply)...


summation:
yes...they will continue to increase, but different rarities at different rates, but the trends will remain just like they have, given the continued interest and focus of the set , and increased collectors....as some collectors start dabbling in the commons, they "get bitten by the monster" and feel the need for rarer and better cards, also pushing up demand on the rarities...

look at all the rarities in the set...dem, magie, plank, just to mention a few....these could be good indicators on the rare back trends, HAS ANY OF THESE RARITIES DECREASED OVER THE LAST TEN YEARS?? you can expect the rarities to follow similiar trends of the big cards in the set...


phew! my business degree was talking here sorry

hope it wasn't too much babble....



btw....if anyone interested in bailing, i'll take your freaks/scraps or rarer backs

get out while the goings goodLOL!!!just email me



Peace

Johnny V


(the original Johnny V), anyone else is just an imposter...

[bcbgcbrcb]

My guess is wishful thinking on the part of those who collect them.

If a poll was taken about the future value of HOF RC's, I would say that they would go up because that is what I collect. I'm sure that others who have no interest in those cards (or actually despise them as I know some collectors do) would anticipate a decline just as I would for the rare back T206's, which I have no interest in.

[Bicem]

HOF rookies is so diverse though, some issues will go up and some will go down.