SMR vs. VCP

[smtjoy]

I see what your saying David and maybe SMR is High on Topps and Bowman cards but on most cards I collect- Exhibits, M101, E's it is quite low and I almost always pay over 100% even for VG cards. Hell on 1933 exhibits I will buy as many as you can find at 110+% of SMR.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by smtjoy

I see what your saying David and maybe SMR is High on Topps and Bowman cards but on most cards I collect- Exhibits, M101, E's it is quite low and I almost always pay over 100% even for VG cards. Hell on 1933 exhibits I will buy as many as you can find at 110+% of SMR.

SMR is also way low on many T207s, M116s, and pretty much all pre-war hockey (especially grades between 2-4).

IMO the SMR plays very little part in the actual prices paid for pre-war cards. Walking around the National in 2011 for several days and talking with many pre-war dealers and collectors, I don't recall a single person looking at or referring to the SMR (despite the fact that they gave a free copy to pretty much everyone in the room).

Cheers,
Blair

[HRBAKER]

David,
Your theory assumes that a significant number of people buying cards look at the SMR for pricing information. Do you believe that?

Jeff

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

David,
Your theory assumes that a significant number of people buying cards look at the SMR for pricing information. Do you believe that?

Jeff

Absolutely. There are plenty of threads (on this and many other boards) comparing SMR to VCP. If people weren't looking at the SMR, these threads wouldn't exist because people wouldn't care.

[Big Six]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Absolutely. There are plenty of threads (on this and many other boards) comparing SMR to VCP. If people weren't looking at the SMR, these threads wouldn't exist because people wouldn't care.

There are also a number of eBay listings that include SMR...I'm thinking Probstein off the top of my head.

[HRBAKER]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Absolutely. There are plenty of threads (on this and many other boards) comparing SMR to VCP. If people weren't looking at the SMR, these threads wouldn't exist because people wouldn't care.

Sure David some people look at SMR and they even start threads comparing the two. That doesn't mean a significant number in the overall scheme of things regard it as a "legitimate" pricing tool. I'm not convinced there are.

[vintagetoppsguy]

The fact is that VCP is lower than SMR on most cards. Obviously people can give examples of data that conflict my statement, but I am not talking about the 1% of cards that actually sell above SMR. My theory is based on the other 99% of cards that sell below SMR.

SMR was out years before VCP came into existence. And for years people were paying less than SMR with no other pricing data available. Why? My theory is that people just don't want to pay book (SMR) value for cards.

If SMR goes up or down in price, I believe that VCP will go up or down in relation to that, but the VCP will never equal SMR because nobody wants to pay book prices for a card.

If anybody else has a theory why VCP prices are lower than SMR prices I would love to hear it. Maybe it's a combination of factors, but I haven't heard any other theories.

Edited to add: Jeff, I'm not saying it's a legitimate pricing tool. It's not. It just gives us a price point from where we can negotiate down. Again, I use my new car sticker price as an example. Nobody pays that. Sure there are some rare cars that actually sell for more than the sticker, just like there are cards that sell from more than SMR. I'm not talking about those though. Who here has ever paid sticker price for a new car? Probably nobody. Because we know that's just a starting price point in which the dealer is willing to come down. Same thing with SMR.

[barrysloate]

VCP is not offering any opinions on what they think the market should be; they are merely reporting sales that have already transpired.

SMR, on the other hand, is estimating what they think the market should be. My guess is that they are lobbied by dealers and may not be entirely objective. All guides that estimate prices have a certain obligation to the people who support them, or they will lose those advertising dollars to a competitor. That's why I don't consider SMR to be legitimate price guide. Of course, there are some cases where they may in fact be pretty close to market, as that will happen.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

SMR was out years before VCP came into existence. And for years people were paying less than SMR with no other pricing data available. Why? My theory is that people just don't want to pay book (SMR) value for cards.

...

If anybody else has a theory why VCP prices are lower than SMR prices I would love to hear it. Maybe it's a combination of factors, but I haven't heard any other theories.

I think a lot of people were ignoring SMR - I know I was. I look at VCP, ebay results, and major auction house results. So my thought is that VCP is lower than SMR because VCP reflect reality. When I see a seller mention SMR price to justify his huge mark-up over reality, I scratch my head and think, "so what?".

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

Sure David some people look at SMR and they even start threads comparing the two. That doesn't mean a significant number in the overall scheme of things regard it as a "legitimate" pricing tool. I'm not convinced there are.

+1

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

SMR is also way low on many T207s, M116s, and pretty much all pre-war hockey (especially grades between 2-4).

I did some quick research on the T207 and M116s to prove my theory. I took the first three HOFers in the T207 set (Bender, Bresnahan and Carey) and the last three HOFers in the M116 set (Wallace, Willis and Young - I skipped Walsh because there was no pricing data) and looked at the SMR vs. VCP price for each of those cards in a PSA 5.

T207 (all common backs)
Bender - SMR $430 vs. VCP $385.99
Bresnahan - SMR $430 vs. VCP $223.07
Carey - SMR $500 vs. VCP $450

M116 (blue backs)
Wallace - SMR $265 vs. VCP $208.32
Willis - SMR $265 vs. VCP $277
Young - $900 vs. VCP $822

As you can see, only 1 card (M116 Willis) had a higher VCP than SMR (and it was less than 5%). I tried to be as fair as I could in my 15 minutes of research. I'm sure someone can give other examples of cards in these sets (or other sets) where the VCP is higher than the SMR, but that holds true of any set/any year. I still stand behind my original statement that for the most part, VCP is lower than SMR (on most cards).

[HRBAKER]

Is there no issue with a leading grading company that sells advertising to major auction houses printing/issuing a pricing guide. Are we supposed to believe that this information can be taken legitimately. To me that's like the Frito-Lay Co. printing the Physician's Desk reference.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I did some quick research on the T207 and M116s to prove my theory. I took the first three HOFers in the T207 set (Bender, Bresnahan and Carey) and the last three HOFers in the M116 set (Wallace, Willis and Young - I skipped Walsh because there was no pricing data) and looked at the SMR vs. VCP price for each of those cards in a PSA 5.

T207 (all common backs)
Bender - SMR $430 vs. VCP $385.99
Bresnahan - SMR $430 vs. VCP $223.07
Carey - SMR $500 vs. VCP $450

M116 (blue backs)
Wallace - SMR $265 vs. VCP $208.32
Willis - SMR $265 vs. VCP $277
Young - $900 vs. VCP $822

As you can see, only 1 card (M116 Willis) had a higher VCP than SMR (and it was less than 5%). I tried to be as fair as I could in my 15 minutes of research. I'm sure someone can give other examples of cards in these sets (or other sets) where the VCP is higher than the SMR, but that holds true of any set/any year. I still stand behind my original statement that for the most part, VCP is lower than SMR (on most cards).

Hello David,

The examples you chose for T207 and M116 are not really good ones for those sets. Those sets are not so much about the HOFers - they are much more about multiple levels of scarcity and even rarity in terms of many subjects. Although you chose HOFers, those cards are "common" in those sets.

Where SMR utterly falls down in a laughable way is failing to recognize the scarce/rare cards in these sets. Their across-the-board broad brush price setting had nothing to do with what the market is paying.

I don't have time to cite hundreds of examples, but there are literally hundreds.

Want one that I just looked at that made me laugh?

SMR says T207 Mike Donlin in a 1 is $22. It says that card in a 3 is $55. Hahahaha!

Wanna know the real prices people are paying (ie. the real value) found by looking at VCP? Try over $1,000 for a 1 and almost $3,000 in a 3.

Wonder if those buyers knew they were paying 50 TIMES SMR?

There are tons of examples similar to this.

Cheers,
Blair

[BobbyVCP]

I just checked out SMR for the very first time online now since it is free. And wow your right they really missed the boat on the T207 Donlin, bet now the PSA5.5 in Clean Sweep is really going to jump up in price.

[ls7plus]

Blair's comment was excellent. PSA's philosophy with regard to extremely rare cards is to be very conservative in their prices. It was also good to hear from Bobby re some of what he's got planned, as I find VCP a very informative tool, although just one in the tool box, rather than the be-all and end all. As I've stated before, I believe ebay continues to reflect largely wholesale prices, and not much more, attracting a much smaller percentage of collectors who might have a real interest in a truly significant item, than do the major auction houses. It's always been the case that the quicker you want to sell, the less you usually get. The venue you choose for your sale simply reflects what your needs are.

Best regards always,

Larry

[Exhibitman]

I like the analogy David but it is flawed. The SMR is more like the Kelly Blue Book in that it says what the cars are supposedly worth. A sticker is the dealer ask price--you don't expect that to be an accurate reflection of value.

I simply do not see the efficacy of a price guide that is wrong.

But it is definitely worth what they are charging for it now.

[Edwolf1963]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

I just checked out SMR for the very first time online now since it is free. And wow your right they really missed the boat on the T207 Donlin, bet now the PSA5.5 in Clean Sweep is really going to jump up in price.

I keep coming back to "if it's free, how good is it then?"

[E93]

I am a big fan of VCP. It has been an incredibly valuable resource for me as both a buyer and occasional seller.
JimB