The Goodwin Plank and Magie are TRIMMED!

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by E93

The point is that for me the three previously known examples (two obvious printer scraps and a hand cut card in the '80's) are too small of a sample to draw a definitive conclusion.

...
JimB

'Three' isn't actually a sample size - it's 3/4 of the total known population. If there were known to be twenty and we could only see four, and they were all hand-cut, THEN you could use the 'sample size' argument, although 20% is a large sample, even in a population that small.

If we assume that there WERE twenty, but only these four survived, then we are assuming that ALL of the factory-cut ones are either undiscovered, or did not survive. Isn't it more likely that factory-issued cards would have survived, than 'scraps' such as these three? (plus the one in question).

[BleedinBlue]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Isn't it more likely that factory-issued cards would have survived, than 'scraps' such as these three? (plus the one in question).

Scott,

I don't agree with with this.

For the record there is nothing of substance I can offer regarding any of these cards being trimmed or not. I've never held the cards in hand and don't feel I have enough information to form a definitive opinion. I also can't afford them so any possibility of owning these cards exists solely in my mind. That being said, the Green Cobby gives me reason to pause.

As to the issue of factory cut cards being more likely to survive than hand cut scraps...

As unbelievable as it may sound to many of us on this board, a large proportion of the originally issued T206 cards were quickly discarded by the original purchaser who had no interest in owning the card. If a small number of factory cut Planks were issued they would only have survived had they been originally removed from the packaging by somebody who cared to save them either for themselves or gave them to somebody who wanted them. We can argue what percentage of cards pulled from packs became collectibles and what percentage went directly into the trash but I think we can all agree that the percentage which became collectibles is less than 100%. Probably far less. Scott Reader does a nice job of estimating original T206 production numbers and current populations in his Inside T206 opus. Using baseline numbers he estimates only 1/2% of the original production survived to today. Even if we doubled that number to 1% we would only expect that 1 of every 100 Planks which were issued in packs to still exist. However, I believe every non-factory "scrap" was taken from the factory to keep. Certainly they all didn't survive to this day but I don't believe too many were secreted out of the factory for trivial reasons.

That's a long way of saying that I disagree that factory cut examples were more likely to have survived than non-factory cut scraps.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by BleedinBlue

....

That's a long way of saying that I disagree that factory cut examples were more likely to have survived than non-factory cut scraps.

Very good argument.