"TRUE" population of a card

[zljones]

Originally Posted by rainier2004

Zach - I like the though, am a son of CPA, but I think a little creative thinking would be in order here vs a true formula. I.e. a Cracker Jack Joe jacskon would have a MUCH higher percentage of cards graded vesus raw comparing to a common card. Compare that to say a 1934 goudey hank greenberg...more cards, smaller percent graded with probably more sitting in private collections, undisclosed as well. I would think some cards, like an e107, would have nearly 100% in slabs. Sooo many variables involved. Your formula would have to include these varibales...complicated at best. Good luck!

Indeed I am not that great at math so I don't know if I could ever embark in this type of adventure. It would definately be something that would have to take in several factors, it would probably be best just to track prewar only.

[mets41]

Where do you want to factor in some of I have? During the pre-grading card companies era I worked on the sets I collected as a kid and lost in a family move. These cards (1960-64 Topps, Fleer, and Leaf) were purchased raw and never graded.

[doug.goodman]

I am constantly amazed at how the portion of the world population that grades cards seems to think that the "population" of those cards somehow has a correlation to the amount of cards in existence.

Maybe I'm completely wrong...

BUT...

It is my opinion that, on the average, most people who own any given card, have not had that card graded.

I may be wrong.

But, I doubt it.

With all best wishes to all persons who collect or possess any card either graded or raw,
Doug

[glchen]

Like others have said, very valuable cards are much more likely to be slabbed than commons. Few would grade a beater t206 Heinie Wagner but many Honus Wagners would be graded.

[zljones]

So I guess the conclusion is, is that getting a general population (not exact) is just a dream and can be never accomplished. I thought it could be accomplished by one pulling sales records from all over the place throughout the past few years. And also by maybe doing a poll like Northviewcats Suggested. I would do all this but I do not have the time or the patience. O well

[glchen]

I think the rough estimate that I like to use especially for cards that are in sets is take the card that is most likely to be graded (that is not short printed or double printed), add the pops of the three major TPG's (PSA/SGC/BVG), and then double it to take into account raw cards. For example, if there are a total of 500 graded 1933 Goudey #149 Babe Ruth's, I would double that to say that, in general, there would be 1000 copies of every 1933 Goudey that is not short printed (e.g., low numbers) or double printed (e.g., #144 Ruth). These high value superstar cards are much more likely to be graded, so the pop reports will give you a more accurate reflection of the commons. For example, in a set such as the 1928 Harrington Ice cream, there are 22 Ruth's in the PSA pop report, but only 1 Joe Dugan. Is that because Harrington printed 20X more Ruth's than all of the all players? Very doubtful and it's most likely that there are also 20+ Joe Dugans out there, but just haven't been graded because it's not worth the grading fee.

Of course, some will say that there are more Ruth's than Dugan's out there because kids and other collectors back then would be much more likely to keep their Ruth cards and toss away their Dugan's. Therefore, HOFer's and others like Ruth would be more likely to survive to this day.

[ScottFandango]

i know there are OLD SCHOOL collectors who dont like plastic....

but you cant tell me these collectors are cracking out VALUABLE CARDS and putting them in mylar sleeves..that would be assinine...

not only does that immeadiately lower the value of the collectible, but it puts it back in harms way...

so using the POP reports for rare cards is a good idea because these will be VERY ACCURATE...

no intelligent person is deslabbing a RARE VALUABLE CARD..NOT DONE!