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  #1  
Old 05-03-2012, 05:38 PM
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Craig Wright
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Default EPDGs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Runscott View Post
Ted, I completely disagree with you regarding Mullin and EPDG - he's fairly common with that back; either that, or there was a recent horde of them discovered.

FWIW, I checked PSA pop report for EPDGs (883 total graded for 260 subjects = an average of 3.4 EPDGs per subject)

The # graded for the following selected subjects are:

Dahlen (Bos): 2
Ewing: 2
Ganley: 1
T. Jones: 2
Karger: 3
Lindaman: 7
Mullin (Horiz): 4
Lundgren (Chi): 8


Best Regards and Happy Collecting,
Craig
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  #2  
Old 05-03-2012, 05:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by White Borders View Post
FWIW, I checked PSA pop report for EPDGs (883 total graded for 260 subjects = an average of 3.4 EPDGs per subject)

The # graded for the following selected subjects are:

Dahlen (Bos): 2
Ewing: 2
Ganley: 1
T. Jones: 2
Karger: 3
Lindaman: 7
Mullin (Horiz): 4
Lundgren (Chi): 8


Best Regards and Happy Collecting,
Craig
Thanks Craig. Perhaps it's not a popular card to get slabbed by PSA, but I sold one a couple of months ago and saw two more in other auctions. Three in 2-3 months.

I'm still curious how PSA and SGC pop reports relate to actual physical numbers of cards in existence. I have asked this question numerous times here, but have gotten no responses. Scot Reader posted that he came up with his "T206 hardest cards" list based, in part, on PSA pop reports, but I haven't gotten a response to my question as to how he actually used them to come up with numbers. If you really believe PSA pop reports, then (again, not to bore anyone, but I'm repeating myself for about the fourth time this year), then you have to believe that many of the tough variations are no tougher than their counterparts.
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  #3  
Old 05-03-2012, 06:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Runscott View Post
... I'm still curious how PSA and SGC pop reports relate to actual physical numbers of cards in existence...
A week or so ago Zach started a thread on this same topic, also without getting much anywhere "TRUE" population of a card

I've been pondering if there is a statistical means (pun intended!) of coming up with a population estimate; perhaps some modification to a biological mark-recapture method METHODS OF ESTIMATING POPULATION SIZE -- MARK-RECAPTURE

Best Regards,
Craig
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  #4  
Old 05-03-2012, 08:02 PM
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Originally Posted by White Borders View Post
A week or so ago Zach started a thread on this same topic, also without getting much anywhere
Yes, I know. I avoided getting involved in that one - there were a lot of great thoughts, but they weren't jelling into a useful formula. We could use input from someone like Scot Reader who is respected in the hobby, and has already gone through this thought process.

Also, (and I'm repeating myself here...again) I asked Jim Riviera if the info on T206Resource.com could be used to come up with multipliers to help us determine how many of each card, total, were produced, and he said, "Yes". Yet, that also hasn't gone anywhere.

No offense to any of these guys, but I'd love to see them answer some questions here and participate in discussions, rather than wait until they have a research paper published on their site (T206Resource.com), and then sending us a link. Tim, Jim - get involved in the discussions here, please.
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  #5  
Old 05-03-2012, 09:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Runscott View Post
Also, (and I'm repeating myself here...again) I asked Jim Riviera if the info on T206Resource.com could be used to come up with multipliers to help us determine how many of each card, total, were produced, and he said, "Yes". Yet, that also hasn't gone anywhere.
Scott - You're exactly right, it hasn't gone anywhere. Jim and I have discussed several possible scenarios for ranking individual subject scarcities. I have run these buy a board member that has a more advanced understanding of statistics and applying the correct multipliers for each variant. As of right now we haven't made much progress on this project but it's on the list.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Runscott View Post
No offense to any of these guys, but I'd love to see them answer some questions here and participate in discussions, rather than wait until they have a research paper published on their site (T206Resource.com), and then sending us a link. Tim, Jim - get involved in the discussions here, please.
I will gladly discuss T206's with any interested person and do so daily. I may not get involved in every T206 discussion on the board but I do share anything I can with anyone that wants to know.

Regarding the OP my thoughts on the Schulte weren't published on T206Resource.com but are in the addendum of the REA listing.



P.S. - Rivera
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Last edited by Abravefan11; 05-03-2012 at 09:40 PM.
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  #6  
Old 05-03-2012, 09:40 PM
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Tim, I'm glad to hear you say this, but the proof's in the pudding. Rather than say you will participate and answer questions, simply do it.

We've had quite a few great T206 discussions where I know you and Jim had thoughts, and I waited to hear them....and waited....and nothing occurred. An example is the discussion about whether or not the recently numerically-graded Plank could have actually been anything other than hand-cut.

Again, as NIKE would say, JUST DO IT. Your published works on your website are great. Keep up the good work.
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  #7  
Old 05-03-2012, 09:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Runscott View Post
Tim, I'm glad to hear you say this, but the proof's in the pudding. Rather than say you will participate and answer questions, simply do it.

We've had quite a few great T206 discussions where I know you and Jim had thoughts, and I waited to hear them....and waited....and nothing occurred. An example is the discussion about whether or not the recently numerically-graded Plank could have actually been anything other than hand-cut.

Again, as NIKE would say, JUST DO IT. Your published works on your website are great. Keep up the good work.
Scott - The tone of your current post, and many before it, is EXACTLY why I do not post as much as I used to on this forum. I really enjoy discussing the nuances of this set with as many collectors as I can and I will continue to do so, it just won't be here with you.
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  #8  
Old 05-04-2012, 06:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Runscott View Post
Tim, I'm glad to hear you say this, but the proof's in the pudding. Rather than say you will participate and answer questions, simply do it.

We've had quite a few great T206 discussions where I know you and Jim had thoughts, and I waited to hear them....and waited....and nothing occurred. An example is the discussion about whether or not the recently numerically-graded Plank could have actually been anything other than hand-cut.

Again, as NIKE would say, JUST DO IT. Your published works on your website are great. Keep up the good work.
Touche'
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  #9  
Old 05-04-2012, 09:02 AM
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Default Elite Eight

Shown here, I have provided the current data from SGC's pop reports of these 8 cards. Can some one here please provide the corresponding
data from the PSA pop reports ?

Of course, there is no way of knowing from these numbers how many times these cards have been re-graded.


Subject ............. P 350 ....... EPDG ........... P 150 ...... SOV 150 ...... SC 150 ....... HINDU

DAHLEN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 28 ............. 1 .............. 17 .............. 1

EWING ................. 1 .............. 5 ................. 53 ............. 6 .............. 40 .............. 3

GANLEY ................ 6 ............. 4 ................. 48 .............. 6 .............. 36 .............. 6

T. JONES .............. 4 ............. 3 ................. 64 .............. 4 .............. 39 .............. 3

KARGER ................ 3 ............. 4 ................. 46 .............. 7 .............. 25 .............. 0

LINDAMAN ............ 1 ............. 3 ................. 58 ............... 1 .............. 24 .............. 6

MULLIN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 37 .............. X .............. 16 .............. 0

SCHULTE .............. 0 ............. 0 ................. 47 .............. 1 .............. 13 .............. 5


NOTE

I substituted " X " for Dahlen in the P 350 and Mullin in the P 350 and SOV 150 columns, since the SGC pop report shows NO graded cards
for these respective backs on these two cards.

My collection includes Dahlen with a P 350 card. And, three Mullin cards....one P 350 card and two SOV 150 cards.


TED Z

Last edited by tedzan; 05-04-2012 at 10:28 AM.
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  #10  
Old 05-04-2012, 09:30 AM
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I was asked my opinion about the Schulte being scrap. From the scans I don't see anything that would lead me to believe that it is scrap. It may be, but it's not evident to me from the scan.
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  #11  
Old 05-04-2012, 09:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tedzan View Post
Shown here, I have provided the current data from SGC's pop reports of these 8 cards. Can some one here please provide the corresponding
data from the PSA pop reports ?

Of course, there is no way of knowing from these numbers how many times these cards have been re-graded.


Subject ............. P 350 ....... EPDG ........... P 150 ...... SOV 150 ...... SC 150 ....... HINDU

MULLIN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 37 .............. X .............. 16 .............. 0


NOTE

I substituted " X " for Mullin in the P 350 and SOV 150 columns, since the SGC pop report shows NO graded cards for these two backs.
My collection has three Mullin cards....one P 350 card and two SOV 150 cards.


TED Z
Ted, that EPDG Mullin number really surprises me. Weird that a few showed up this year, when the pop report would indicate they are scarce.
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  #12  
Old 05-04-2012, 09:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tedzan View Post
Can some one here please provide the corresponding
data from the PSA pop reports ?
TED Z
Ted,

PSA pop report is now available with free registration. I've been dabbling in it but still haven't quite figured out if there is a way to break out the different series (example: It just shows total Piedmont but doesn't break out the P150 from the P350). Anyways, here is what I just pulled up (it was quicker to convert them to images than for me to try to remember something about formatting html tables!):
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Elite Eight (1-4) PSA Pop.jpg (75.0 KB, 231 views)
File Type: jpg Elite Eight (5-8) PSA Pop.jpg (74.8 KB, 229 views)
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  #13  
Old 05-07-2012, 07:30 AM
tedzan tedzan is offline
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Default Lee B

Quote:
Originally Posted by tedzan View Post
Shown here, I have provided the current data from SGC's pop reports of these 8 cards. Can some one here please provide the corresponding
data from the PSA pop reports ?

>>>>>> Of course, there is no way of knowing from these numbers how many times these cards have been re-graded. <<<<<<


Subject ............. P 350 ....... EPDG ........... P 150 ...... SOV 150 ...... SC 150 ....... HINDU

DAHLEN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 28 ............. 1 .............. 17 .............. 1

EWING ................. 1 .............. 5 ................. 53 ............. 6 .............. 40 .............. 3

GANLEY ................ 6 ............. 4 ................. 48 .............. 6 .............. 36 .............. 6

T. JONES .............. 4 ............. 3 ................. 64 .............. 4 .............. 39 .............. 3

KARGER ................ 3 ............. 4 ................. 46 .............. 7 .............. 25 .............. 0

LINDAMAN ............ 1 ............. 3 ................. 58 ............... 1 .............. 24 .............. 6

MULLIN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 37 .............. X .............. 16 .............. 0

SCHULTE .............. 0 ............. 0 ................. 47 .............. 1 .............. 13 .............. 5


NOTE

I substituted " X " for Dahlen in the P 350 and Mullin in the P 350 and SOV 150 columns, since the SGC pop report shows NO graded cards
for these respective backs on these two cards.

My collection includes Dahlen with a P 350 card. And, three Mullin cards....one P 350 card and two SOV 150 cards.


TED Z


LEE....well said in post #39

" You can eliminate one Ewing EPDG off the PSA pop report. I have crossed it into a SGC holder.

I don't think that I need to point out that this is a big reason why these pop reports can only being taken with minimal accuracy. "

Lee




Although, I posted these SGC numbers (for comparison sake) ...... I'm in complete agreement with you regarding POP reports.


TED Z

Last edited by tedzan; 05-07-2012 at 11:17 AM.
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  #14  
Old 05-03-2012, 11:42 PM
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Craig Wright
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Runscott View Post

Also, (and I'm repeating myself here...again) I asked Jim Riviera if the info on T206Resource.com could be used to come up with multipliers to help us determine how many of each card, total, were produced, and he said, "Yes". Yet, that also hasn't gone anywhere.
Scott,

I've been working on this problem since the beginning of the year. But, it's a tough nut to crack and I'm still a long way from cracking it. The attached charts show some of my preliminary scarcity models, starting with linear and progressing to bounded logarithmic transforms. But I can't arbitrarily pick a model. I need a better understanding of the populations. That is what I alluded to above about exploring the "mark and re-capture" methodology.

So even though from one perspective it may appear to be going nowhere, it is being actively pursued.

Best Regards

Note - The following scarcity distribution models are examples. None have been proven accurate and they should not be interpreted as fact.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Linear Distribution.jpg (77.9 KB, 275 views)
File Type: jpg Bounded Transform 1.jpg (71.0 KB, 273 views)
File Type: jpg Bounded Transform 2.jpg (67.7 KB, 274 views)
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