PSA/SGC Waiting Lines At 2019 National

[Peter_Spaeth]

Don't forget that if in the unlikely event this went as far as a trial, the prosecution will have access to lots more than Blowout scans, including emails, texts, purchase records, submission records, and more. Not to mention testimony. I don't think the fundamental facts are in serious doubt here or that there would be any problems of proof.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Not all of your behaviors have to be criminal in order for you to be a criminal. I'm sure juries can understand that.

Not sure why everyone jumps to criminal court about what we can prove or wont prove or wont happen or will happen . Civil court is much easier then criminal court. Go ask O.J.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Don't forget that if in the unlikely event this went as far as a trial, the prosecution will have access to lots more than Blowout scans, including emails, texts, purchase records, submission records, and more. Not to mention testimony. I don't think the fundamental facts are in serious doubt here or that there would be any problems of proof.

I agree that the proof of what occurred is available

If there are no victims either because all paid back (or able to re-sell the card for more money to someone that knows what happened and doesnt care) or wont step forward then its still a non starter.

[barrysloate]

Let me discuss my thoughts on one of Bob's points. And thanks Bob for your thorough and detailed posts.

Third party grading came into being a few decades ago offering services that included authenticating baseball cards, determining if they were original or altered, and giving them an unbiased grade. Obviously, these were services that the baseball card industry badly needed.

Truth be told, they were no better at grading cards than the average veteran collector- there was no secret formula they devised to get it right- and what's been believed for many years and demonstrated in detail recently, they didn't really have the skills or equipment to detect card alterations. They were at least able to offer an unbiased opinion, as they were neither buying or selling the card, and they were able to heat seal the cards in slabs. So they had something to offer the public.

Given their mediocre results, they shouldn't have lasted very long. But just the opposite occurred: they attained a position of tremendous power in the industry, to the point that the baseball card hobby couldn't survive without them. And although the grading was sloppy and inconsistent, the number they put on that label became sacrosanct. So much so that if a baseball card was graded at the highest level, it would consistently set world's records at auction. Prices for these cards have been simply astronomical.

Now there are genuinely rare artifacts that are worth world's record prices. But a baseball card that has been misgraded or altered to appear better than it is should not be one of them. So how has this market survived in this manner?

That's the great question and we know that collectors don't all agree on why this phenomenon has occurred. One thing, however, that the grading services have been able to do incredibly well is make money for their customers and themselves. As has been often said, they literally mint money. And unfortunately we know that card doctor's and fraudsters have been among the beneficiaries of it all.

So maybe the great skill that TPG's have is not grading or authenticating, but making lots of people very wealthy. As such, I don't think we are going to see much change at all in the industry. Sure, a bunch of collectors may drop out or cut back their purchases, but as long as TPG's continue to mint money, nothing at all is going to change.

[Directly]

Correct me-- but wasn't the t206 Wagner card originally advertised and sold as being oversized, then trimmed and submitted for grading ?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Directly

Correct me-- but wasn't the t206 Wagner card originally advertised and sold as being oversized, then trimmed and submitted for grading ?

It was sheet cut from a three card panel -- reportedly in the 1950s -- then trimmed by Mastro. So it was never worthy of a grade.

[Kenny Cole]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Let me discuss my thoughts on one of Bob's points. And thanks Bob for your thorough and detailed posts.

Third party grading came into being a few decades ago offering services that included authenticating baseball cards, determining if they were original or altered, and giving them an unbiased grade. Obviously, these were services that the baseball card industry badly needed.

Truth be told, they were no better at grading cards than the average veteran collector- there was no secret formula they devised to get it right- and what's been believed for many years and demonstrated in detail recently, they didn't really have the skills or equipment to detect card alterations. They were at least able to offer an unbiased opinion, as they were neither buying or selling the card, and they were able to heat seal the cards in slabs. So they had something to offer the public.

Given their mediocre results, they shouldn't have lasted very long. But just the opposite occurred: they attained a position of tremendous power in the industry, to the point that the baseball card hobby couldn't survive without them. And although the grading was sloppy and inconsistent, the number they put on that label became sacrosanct. So much so that if a baseball card was graded at the highest level, it would consistently set world's records at auction. Prices for these cards have been simply astronomical.

Now there are genuinely rare artifacts that are worth world's record prices. But a baseball card that has been misgraded or altered to appear better than it is should not be one of them. So how has this market survived in this manner?

That's the great question and we know that collectors don't all agree on why this phenomenon has occurred. One thing, however, that the grading services have been able to do incredibly well is make money for their customers and themselves. As has been often said, they literally mint money. And unfortunately we know that card doctor's and fraudsters have been among the beneficiaries of it all.

So maybe the great skill that TPG's have is not grading or authenticating, but making lots of people very wealthy. As such, I don't think we are going to see much change at all in the industry. Sure, a bunch of collectors may drop out or cut back their purchases, but as long as TPG's continue to mint money, nothing at all is going to change.

One word: Registry. As I have said before, it is the perfect scam IMO.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by BobC

Also, just because the Blowout guys find scans that show similar marks on supposedly the same card graded twice and bumped up with the second grading, doesn't mean that there couldn't actually be others of those exact same cards with the same, similar marks on them.

On a handful of the cards they've shown, there were few marks. And a few of the marks shown are possibly something that would be on several cards.

But most of the marks are actually dark fibers within the cardstock itself. They're a remnant of the papermaking process, and the odds of one piece of paper having nearly identical dark fibers in the exact same locations would be incredible. Could it happen? I suppose it can't be scientifically ruled out.
Could it happen over and over again and pretty much only on cards that have passed through one particular person? I'm willing to call that one a NO.

The modern cards they began with were serial numbered, which is pretty much certain.

Unless the companies make two identical groups of numbered inserts, there is /was at least one Fleer basketball 1/1 that two examples were found. One was fleers file or backup copy that was bought in the auction.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Kenny Cole

One word: Registry. As I have said before, it is the perfect scam IMO.

You're correct Kenny. The registry has been enormously successful, and because so many cards in the registry are altered, I agree it's not what it appears to be.

[Kenny Cole]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

You're correct Kenny. The registry has been enormously successful, and because so many cards in the registry are altered, I agree it's not what it appears to be.

Let's see: it appeals to ego, vanity and elitism - check. People envy you for having spent more money for a card (that may well be altered at this point) than any other similar card that could be purchased for a very small fraction of what you paid for it were it not graded so high - check. So the next time such a card comes up (and one always will), your previous record is in danger and dictates that even more must be bid to maintain position - check. And, best of all, you actually get recognized by PSA for being so stupid, er, I mean, such a discriminating collector, if you are high on the registry - check.

Whoever came up with this scam was absolutely brilliant. It accurately reads and relies upon human nature. And, not coincidentally, it VASTLY increases the value of PSA graded cards. What could possibly go wrong?

[BobC]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So maybe the great skill that TPG's have is not grading or authenticating, but making lots of people very wealthy. As such, I don't think we are going to see much change at all in the industry. Sure, a bunch of collectors may drop out or cut back their purchases, but as long as TPG's continue to mint money, nothing at all is going to change.

Barry, on that I think you are right on the money. Because of how the TPGs have ingrained themselves in the hobby and with all the money involved, I can't see how we could get them out at this point. There is too much money tied up in the Registry, as Kenny had said and alluded to in his post. It is more than just the Registry though, as that is pretty much tied to a single TPG and the premium prices they seem to command over those for cards graded by the other TPG services. Still these other TPG services are also grading cards and obviously have altered/doctored cards in their holders as well.

Still the Registry is a major driving force behind the sometimes ridiculous price jumps we've been seeing. And that was one of the reasons I was bringing up the question as to the standards and uniformity in grading. Since the Registry behind the significant price jumps is tied to only one specific TPG, where most of these altered /doctored cards seem to be going, the fact that that TPG cannot effectively detect and tell certain types of alterations and changes to cards is basically them saying they don't see any alterations/doctoring. If that TPG finally admits they've been duped and starts to adjust and remove a few cards on their Registry, aren't they kind of setting themselves up for even bigger problems as people start demanding they remove any and all questionable cards on their Registry? You know darn well that someone with a lesser graded set on the Registry will start cross referencing these questionable cards and if they find someone with a higher rated Regsitry set than there's with any of these questionable cards as part of it, they'll be screaming bloody murder to have those questionable cards removed from that other person's Registry set. I don't know if anyone on the Registry has started doing that yet, or even thought about it, but you can bet that as this issue gets out there with more and more publicity that it is eventually going to come up from someone. And then how does this TPG respond?

If they admit to the errors and start removing cards from the Registry, how do they decide which ones do or don't get removed? Who will actually decide then which cards are definitively altered/doctored? That could lead to a huge change/problem with the Registry itself and end up making the entire Registry worthless to many current users. That in turn effects people in the market, and prices, and on and on. I can easily see why the TPG would rather say nothing and hope this blows over. The implications and negative impact it could have on their Registry, and by extension their actual business, could be irreparable to them. Not to mention a huge blow to the hobby as well and negatively impact the value of so many people's collections.

[swarmee]

I sent messages to about 8 of the guys today working on the 1948 Leaf Football set to let them know their cards are altered. PSA makes it so easy now to determine which registry owns what because of their Cert lookup now being tied into the SMR and Registry. So PSA's website improvements over the past year are making it easier for the detectives and helpers to find the owners, even if PSA won't do it properly via email/phone calls/full decertification.

I still think them doing a full-scale recall on cards by Moser, Burge, and any other card doctor PWCC has worked with is a requirement. Obviously, we're not going to catch all the auctionhouses due to lack of paper trail, but the PWCC auctions on eBay all have a paper trail that's easy to validate. It would go even better if the raw card sellers would put their cards sold to Gary and his ilk on some FTP site for the detectives to analyze. Remember, Gary has bought COMPLETE RAW SETS of some of these cards. And plenty of purchases of raw cards from our favorite consignment houses on eBay.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by steve B

On a handful of the cards they've shown, there were few marks. And a few of the marks shown are possibly something that would be on several cards.

But most of the marks are actually dark fibers within the cardstock itself. They're a remnant of the papermaking process, and the odds of one piece of paper having nearly identical dark fibers in the exact same locations would be incredible. Could it happen? I suppose it can't be scientifically ruled out.
Could it happen over and over again and pretty much only on cards that have passed through one particular person? I'm willing to call that one a NO.

The modern cards they began with were serial numbered, which is pretty much certain.

Unless the companies make two identical groups of numbered inserts, there is /was at least one Fleer basketball 1/1 that two examples were found. One was fleers file or backup copy that was bought in the auction.

Steve, thanks for the additional insight. I didn't think or intend what I was saying to refer to all the cards on the list, just that there could be some that could possibly turn up with similar markings. Obviously if there were sequentially numbered modern cards, and the two graded cards are the same number, that is of course a dead giveaway. Still I was merely pointing out how some attorney could try to argue that the allegations that every card on the list was doctored was not correct. I was not as aware of the issue of the dark fibers in the cardstock, and that is a very telling point that you brought out that goes to show the great work done by the Blowout card guys.

And Peter, I also agree with you that what is being done is wrong and illegal, and please don't think I don't realize that. The amount of evidence seems absolutely insane and the coincidental and hard evidence seems so overwhelming that most would found it hard not to convict the people involved of some level of fraud, at the least. And you are absolutely right that if it does go that far, the prosecution will go after and obtain much, much more information in their case. But that is where it gets even more interesting in that what will that information end up showing? Based on what little we've really seen so far, who exactly does everyone think is truly at fault? Obviously the card doctor(s) are the primary targets, but what about all the other parties involved, sellers, TPGs, dealers, they all have benefited and profited from the exploits of these card doctors it seems. To what level, they did or did not know about the exploits of these card doctors, or should have known, could be devastating. How many times have I seen and read threads where someone mentions contacting these sellers, dealers and TPGs to warn them about the nefarious exploits of these card doctors, shillers, and on and on. And then there are the follow-up posts where everyone complains about how it ends up being business as usual and nothing is ever done. So if something concrete finally does come from this latest issue, what can these dealers, sellers and TPGs use for a defense, they didn't know and/or no one ever told them about such possible issues and problems? If evidence eventually does come out to prove that others besides the card doctors themselves were in on this, hopefully the others involved can't just hide behind such a statement that they didn't know and everyone gives them a free pass. It seems almost implausible that if the level, extent and duration of these various issues and antics have been going on involving all the current participants for as long as they have, how could any one of the major players and participants in all this not know about what was going on and be complicit on some level? You've been diligent and at the forefront in bringing and keeping this issue at the forefront for everyone, and I commend you for that as well.

And then if there does come a major case and blow-up of the collecting hobby and system as we now know it, and the added fallout and impact spills over onto the Registry itself to where that implodes as well, the potential negative affect in values and people's collections could be unbelievably detrimental. Which is why you may call me stupid if you like, but for a lot of people with valuable collections that stand to lose a lot if the worst case scenario comes out of all this, they may want to be quiet and not say another word about any of this and hope it all does go away and that things continue on as they are. And that probably includes a lot of people on this forum.

I've been at the office too long and am going home. You guys all have a nice night and lets hope this whole situation can find some resolution that works out best for the hobby as a whole. Only wish I knew what it was. And thank God I basically only collect lower-end stuff and have never gone for the high-end graded items over the years.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobC

Steve, thanks for the additional insight. I didn't think or intend what I was saying to refer to all the cards on the list, just that there could be some that could possibly turn up with similar markings. Obviously if there were sequentially numbered modern cards, and the two graded cards are the same number, that is of course a dead giveaway. Still I was merely pointing out how some attorney could try to argue that the allegations that every card on the list was doctored was not correct. I was not as aware of the issue of the dark fibers in the cardstock, and that is a very telling point that you brought out that goes to show the great work done by the Blowout card guys.

And Peter, I also agree with you that what is being done is wrong and illegal, and please don't think I don't realize that. The amount of evidence seems absolutely insane and the coincidental and hard evidence seems so overwhelming that most would found it hard not to convict the people involved of some level of fraud, at the least. And you are absolutely right that if it does go that far, the prosecution will go after and obtain much, much more information in their case. But that is where it gets even more interesting in that what will that information end up showing? Based on what little we've really seen so far, who exactly does everyone think is truly at fault? Obviously the card doctor(s) are the primary targets, but what about all the other parties involved, sellers, TPGs, dealers, they all have benefited and profited from the exploits of these card doctors it seems. To what level, they did or did not know about the exploits of these card doctors, or should have known, could be devastating. How many times have I seen and read threads where someone mentions contacting these sellers, dealers and TPGs to warn them about the nefarious exploits of these card doctors, shillers, and on and on. And then there are the follow-up posts where everyone complains about how it ends up being business as usual and nothing is ever done. So if something concrete finally does come from this latest issue, what can these dealers, sellers and TPGs use for a defense, they didn't know and/or no one ever told them about such possible issues and problems? If evidence eventually does come out to prove that others besides the card doctors themselves were in on this, hopefully the others involved can't just hide behind such a statement that they didn't know and everyone gives them a free pass. It seems almost implausible that if the level, extent and duration of these various issues and antics have been going on involving all the current participants for as long as they have, how could any one of the major players and participants in all this not know about what was going on and be complicit on some level? You've been diligent and at the forefront in bringing and keeping this issue at the forefront for everyone, and I commend you for that as well.

And then if there does come a major case and blow-up of the collecting hobby and system as we now know it, and the added fallout and impact spills over onto the Registry itself to where that implodes as well, the potential negative affect in values and people's collections could be unbelievably detrimental. Which is why you may call me stupid if you like, but for a lot of people with valuable collections that stand to lose a lot if the worst case scenario comes out of all this, they may want to be quiet and not say another word about any of this and hope it all does go away and that things continue on as they are. And that probably includes a lot of people on this forum.

I've been at the office too long and am going home. You guys all have a nice night and lets hope this whole situation can find some resolution that works out best for the hobby as a whole. Only wish I knew what it was. And thank God I basically only collect lower-end stuff and have never gone for the high-end graded items over the years.

Brent knew. I've already explained how I know that, as if the rest of the evidence doesn't clearly show it anyhow. I also have no doubt many AHs and dealers knew exactly what they were taking from card doctors. Card doctors have been feeding these people for a long time.

[Kenny Cole]

But hey, since he's paying some people back, fraud didn't occur. Just ask Jake. Restitution for theft fixes all. Nothing to see here, move along.

[oldjudge]

Barry—This is a quote from you in a post a few spots up:

“That's the great question and we know that collectors don't all agree on why this phenomenon has occurred. One thing, however, that the grading services have been able to do incredibly well is make money for their customers and themselves. As has been often said, they literally mint money. And unfortunately we know that card doctor's and fraudsters have been among the beneficiaries of it all.”

My question to you is what basis do you have to say that PSA mints money for themselves? Tell me if I’m wrong, but I’d guess that you have never looked at their financials. In point of fact, Collectors Universe is a not particularly profitable company. In 2018, the company made $6.2 million, the low point for the last five years. Their cash flow, excluding a credit line drawdown was over $2 million in the red, and that is with halving their dividend midway through the year. Despite the large volume of submissions they take in at shows, it appears to me that they are struggling to survive.

[barrysloate]

I haven't looked at their financials Jay, you are correct. But I believe they have created one of the most incredible marketing coups with the set registry. How many thousands and thousands of cards have been resubmitted to see if they can get a bump?

If PSA is the weak link here, fine. But how many collector have made a ton of money by getting that bump? How much money do collectors make when they submit a crappy card that has been altered and get it graded a 7 or 8? I'm sure I could come up with a few more, but it's 5:30 AM and I need another cup of coffee.

But I haven't done an audit so perhaps my numbers are less than perfect.

[barrysloate]

Jay- I've come up with an example of how money is minted that I wish to share. I don't speak with many collectors, and I'm sure my story is a familiar one to those who are active in the market. I'll leave out names to protect the innocent.

A number of years ago a good friend of mine had a valuable baseball card graded a 7. He decided to resubmit it to see if he could get a bump. He sent it in again, and again, and again, and again.

The first four times it remained a 7. You would think that PSA was demonstrating some much needed consistency by recognizing the card's limitations. But lo and behold, on the fifth try he got an 8. How did this card suddenly jump a full grade? I have absolutely no idea, nor did he. And let's look at the transaction. PSA got paid five times to grade the same card. Nice work if you can get it. When was the last time you paid your plumber five times to fix the same leak? And my friend, who paid five grading fees and threw them well over $500 (rates were lower then) got back a baseball card that just added around $5000 of value.

So everyone made out like a bandit on that transaction, and absolutely nothing was created or built. All that took place is they passed the same card back and forth to each other. So that's an example of minting money out of thin area. I can't speak for PSA's bottom line, but that one transaction was quite profitable.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Barry—This is a quote from you in a post a few spots up:

“That's the great question and we know that collectors don't all agree on why this phenomenon has occurred. One thing, however, that the grading services have been able to do incredibly well is make money for their customers and themselves. As has been often said, they literally mint money. And unfortunately we know that card doctor's and fraudsters have been among the beneficiaries of it all.”

My question to you is what basis do you have to say that PSA mints money for themselves? Tell me if I’m wrong, but I’d guess that you have never looked at their financials. In point of fact, Collectors Universe is a not particularly profitable company. In 2018, the company made $6.2 million, the low point for the last five years. Their cash flow, excluding a credit line drawdown was over $2 million in the red, and that is with halving their dividend midway through the year. Despite the large volume of submissions they take in at shows, it appears to me that they are struggling to survive.

they are sitting on almost 16 million of cash according to the latest Q. The stock is way up this year. 11.49 on 1/2, 22.23 yesterday. Weren't people clamoring to short it?

[Johnny630]

Would be interesting to know if PSA is paying back PWCC for all the bad cards in their holders that they sold in there auction.Kinda like here keep quiet we will get through this.... PSA to PWCC make it right with your customers buy back the cards in full, apologize make it right...we will take care of you wink wink wink.
It's the right business decison 100% for both compaines. With the caveat our business model and marketing cant be beat these idots are addicted to registry and pop report. We will get through this just do whats right and keep hush......

Buyers Think Oh Wow PWCC is so great they're paying me back in full im so pleased I’ll buy from theses guys again ......they have great cards.......meanwhile the toothpaste has already been squeezed out of the tube. A day late and a dollar short if you ask me. I bet the general buyers will continue to take PSA and PWCC bait hook line and skiner. Who do I blame if they continue to do this? The buyer... All the information is here do with it as you may.....my mind has been made up.
A Fool and his Money are Soon Parted.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Would be interesting to know if PSA is paying back PWCC for all the bad cards in their holders that they sold in there auction.Kinda like here keep quiet we will get through this.... PSA to PWCC make it right with your customers buy back the cards in full, apologize make it right...we will take care of you wink wink wink.
It's the right business decison 100% for both compaines. With the caveat our business model and marketing cant be beat these idots are addicted to registry and pop report. We will get through this just do whats right and keep hush......

Buyers Think Oh Wow PWCC is so great they're paying me back in full im so pleased.....meanwhile the toothpaste has already been squeezed out of the tube. A day late and a dollar short if you ask me. I bet the general buyers will continue to take PSA and PWCC bait hook line and skiner. Who do I blame if they continue to do this? The buyer... All the information is here do with it as you may.....my mind has been made up.
A Fool and his Money are Soon Parted.

It's better than no restitution, but it's a decade late and probably millions of dollars short when all the fraud in various forms is added up, and in any event returning the stolen money shouldn't whitewash the crime. If it weren't for the guys at BO this would have gone on forever. PWCC's motive is transparent.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Jay- I've come up with an example of how money is minted that I wish to share. I don't speak with many collectors, and I'm sure my story is a familiar one to those who are active in the market. I'll leave out names to protect the innocent.

A number of years ago a good friend of mine had a valuable baseball card graded a 7. He decided to resubmit it to see if he could get a bump. He sent it in again, and again, and again, and again.

The first four times it remained a 7. You would think that PSA was demonstrating some much needed consistency by recognizing the card's limitations. But lo and behold, on the fifth try he got an 8. How did this card suddenly jump a full grade? I have absolutely no idea, nor did he. And let's look at the transaction. PSA got paid five times to grade the same card. Nice work if you can get it. When was the last time you paid your plumber five times to fix the same leak? And my friend, who paid five grading fees and threw them well over $500 (rates were lower then) got back a baseball card that just added around $5000 of value.

So everyone made out like a bandit on that transaction, and absolutely nothing was created or built. All that took place is they passed the same card back and forth to each other. So that's an example of minting money out of thin area. I can't speak for PSA's bottom line, but that one transaction was quite profitable.

Barry, the reason this isn't more obvious to everyone is that your post is not illustrated.

Registry till.jpg

The vote in the board room before creating the Registry was unanimous.

The resubmission of both cards and cash was evident right from the get go.

The user-friendly casino in Newport Beach is the perfect storm in this whole scenario (scandal), and was accomplished without a string of hotels and Wayne Newton.

I'm not going to the National this year, but would appreciate seeing pictures posted of the lines at PSA and PWCC to further illustrate my point.

[CuriousGeorge]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

they are sitting on almost 16 million of cash according to the latest Q. The stock is way up this year. 11.49 on 1/2, 22.23 yesterday. Weren't people clamoring to short it?

They were added to the Russell 2000 index. Funds need to own it that mimic its returns.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Barry, the reason this isn't more obvious to everyone is that your post is not illustrated.

Attachment 358389

The vote in the board room before creating the Registry was unanimous.

The resubmission of both cards and cash was evident right from the get go.

The user-friendly casino in Newport Beach is the perfect storm in this whole scenario (scandal), and was accomplished without a string of hotels and Wayne Newton.

I'm not going to the National this year, but would appreciate seeing pictures posted of the lines at PSA and PWCC to further illustrate my point.

I will not post pictures but I will gladly tell you how off the hook the lines are wed, thursday, and Friday.

[glynparson]

Originally Posted by topcat61

I always thought an altered card was worth 10% of it's original value? also though that Dr. James Beckett had all this nailed down as "industry standards"? Maybe you can help me understand something. Beckett used dealers financial accounts dent to the company to come up with a statistical formula to calculate a cards worth...is that what PSA does? Would it be a conflict of interest for PSA to grade cards and come up with a value for their graded cards in their price guide? Thanks.

BEckett has always been irrelevant in all honesty. Many cards have always sold easily for much more than their guide listed while many others sold for much less. It was never a price listing or bible despite the misuse of it by some, apparently yourself included. I predict lines will be comparable to years before if not longer.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by glynparson

BEckett has always been irrelevant in all honesty. Many cards have always sold easily for much more than their guide listed while many others sold for much less. It was never a price listing or bible despite the misuse of it by some, apparently yourself included. I predict lines will be comparable to years before if not longer.

Probably so. They have now been shown conclusively to be completely incompetent (best case scenario) and to have slabbed huge numbers of altered cards, and neither they nor most of the collecting world apparently care. And people can accept awards for their sets that, in all likelihood, are riddled with alterations.

[BeanTown]

Im old school where I remember card collecting before grading. I knew the hobby changed when there was another price guide other than Krause SCD, in graded cards called "SMR".

The Registry is what made all the difference between the grading companies along with consistant competent grading. It would have been nice to see TPGs keep to doing what they knew best. As I remember, Beckett was really good at newer shiny cards while SGC was the better company for Pre War and the first company (I believe) to grade postcards. PSA was all across the board, but did not have one area of specialty.

Now, its big business where you must have a TPG Blessing on the card to sell it, or everyone thinks its a fake, altered, and is treated like a red headed step child. Its all our fault to give such power to these TPGs who's opinion we coveth and pay dearly for.

I still own many raw ungraded cards Ive bought from the 80's and 90s. When I decide to sell them, I will choose the best grading company at that time.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

they are sitting on almost 16 million of cash according to the latest Q. The stock is way up this year. 11.49 on 1/2, 22.23 yesterday. Weren't people clamoring to short it?

Peter--Sitting on sixteen million in cash? They're a public company for gosh sake. How much debt do they have? How many companies in your stock portfolio have less than sixteen million in cash? Their stock is up recently just because some yutzes decided that is was a good idea to short a thinly traded closely held company. It's called a short squeeze. No one is going to confuse CLCT and AAPL.They didn't cut their dividend in half because everything was going great.

Barry-Sounds like your friend thought his card was an 8 and he finally got it. My guess is that it was a borderline 7/8 and with enough submissions he got the higher possibility.

[porkchops]

So glad I never got into grading , but ,
if anyone is interested , I've got
some "psychic beyond the grave
autographs" I'll be selling cheap,
guaranteed authentic !
Ken

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Peter--Sitting on sixteen million in cash? They're a public company for gosh sake. How much debt do they have? How many companies in your stock portfolio have less than sixteen million in cash? Their stock is up recently just because some yutzes decided that is was a good idea to short a thinly traded closely held company. It's called a short squeeze. No one is going to confuse CLCT and AAPL.They didn't cut their dividend in half because everything was going great.

Barry-Sounds like your friend thought his card was an 8 and he finally got it. My guess is that it was a borderline 7/8 and with enough submissions he got the higher possibility.

Small company. It's all relative. It isn't anywhere close to being on the verge of failure as you suggested. It isn't struggling to survive, for what it is, it's thriving.

Dividends don't mean anything, they typically just mean the company has nothing better to do with its cash than pay it out. How is AAPL's dividend? AMZN?

[oldjudge]

Cutting your dividend in half is never a sign that you are thriving.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Cutting your dividend in half is never a sign that you are thriving.

The market doesn't seem to mind, the stock has almost doubled since 1-1.

[CuriousGeorge]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Small company. It's all relative. It isn't anywhere close to being on the verge of failure as you suggested. It isn't struggling to survive, for what it is, it's thriving.

Dividends don't mean anything, they typically just mean the company has nothing better to do with its cash than pay it out. How is AAPL's dividend? AMZN?

I thought you were an attorney. Are you a stockbroker too?

[oldjudge]

It's a thinly traded stock and I believe the recent run up from 18 to 22 is a short squeeze. Everything sold off in the fourth quarter and has recovered since. At the start of last year the stock was over $30/sh.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

It's a thinly traded stock and I believe the recent run up from 18 to 22 is a short squeeze. Everything sold off in the fourth quarter and has recovered since. At the start of last year the stock was over $30/sh.

Their coin business which accounts for more than cards got hammered last year, no?

[CuriousGeorge]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

It's a thinly traded stock and I believe the recent run up from 18 to 22 is a short squeeze. Everything sold off in the fourth quarter and has recovered since. At the start of last year the stock was over $30/sh.

The stock got added to the Russell 2000 today. Every fund that tracks that index will want to own it so their returns can be as close to mimicking the index as possible. I think there is barely any stock short so not sure a short squeeze is even a potential issue. It is very thinly traded until the last few days as the index news was getting out. Just reading this board would make me not want to own the stock.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by CuriousGeorge

I thought you were an attorney. Are you a stockbroker too?

Haha.. but as peter knows I have bought and sold that stock...

[BobC]

Since you guys have gotten into the financial well being of PSA's publicly traded parent company, I thought I'd take a look at the their most recent annual report and financials for 2018 myself. Interesting!!!! The red colored sections are taken right out of the Annual Report documents.

Grading Warranty Costs. We offer a limited warranty covering the coins and trading cards that we authenticate and grade.
Under the warranty, if such a collectible that was previously authenticated and graded by us is later submitted to us for re-grading
and either (i) receives a lower grade upon re-submittal or (ii) is determined not to have been authentic, we will offer to purchase the
collectible for a price equal to the value of collectible at its original grade, or, at the customer’s option, pay the difference between
the value of the collectible at its original grade as compared with the value at its lower grade. However, this warranty is voided if
the collectible, upon re-submittal to us, is not in the same tamper-resistant holder in which it was placed at the time we last graded
the item or if we otherwise determine that the collectible had been altered after we had authenticated and graded it. If we purchase
an item under a warranty claim, we recognize the difference in the value of the item at its original grade and its re-graded estimated
value as a reduction in our warranty reserve. We include the purchased item in our inventory at the estimated value of the regraded collectible,
which will be lower than the price we paid to purchase the item. We accrue for estimated warranty costs based
on historical trends and related experience, and we monitor the adequacy of our warranty reserve on an ongoing basis. There also
are a number of factors that can cause the estimated values of the collectibles purchased under our warranty program to change over
time and, as a result, we review the market values of those collectibles on a quarterly basis (see Inventory Valuation Reserves above).
However, once we have classified such items as inventory and they have been held in inventory beyond the end of the fiscal quarter
in which we purchased them, we classify any further losses in the estimated fair value of the items or the subsequent disposal of such
items, as part of the gain or loss on product sales on a quarterly basis.

Due to the higher level of warranty payment in fiscal 2018, warranty expense recognized was $764,000 in fiscal 2018 as
compared to $302,000, and ($145,000) in fiscals, 2017 and 2016, respectively. Our warranty reserves were $862,000 and $834,000
at June 30, 2018 and 2017, respectively.

This section refers to the reserves set up to cover Warranty Costs to be paid to buy back collectibles that were originally over graded or later found to not be authentic. Based on this declared policy it would look like any items improperly graded by PSA should be subject to them buying them back. Notice how over the past several years these reserves have been increasing dramatically. With all the new issues coming to light I would think that PSA and not PWCC should be the ones handing out refunds and buying back altered/doctored cards. Of course, at this point all the info provided by the Blowout card guys and others is still only speculative and despite the seemingly overwhelming and incriminating evidence so far presented, no formal or authoritative group or person has definitively been able to prove or declare that in fact a specific card has actually been doctored or altered, just the presentation of overwhelming and unbelievable volumes of evidence to show that numerous items most likely were doctored/altered and then resubmitted to PSA (and other TPGs) where they were given higher, undeserving grades when they should have been deemed no better than just authentic because of the doctoring/alterations taking place.

I wonder, has anyone (or do you know anyone) who has purchased one of those PSA graded cards that were being shown via the before and after scans to most likely have been altered/doctored, taken their card and the online evidence available and gone to PSA and demanded they buy the card back because it was altered/doctored? If so, how were they received and treated by PSA, and most importantly, were they paid? And think about this, because PSA is part of a publicly traded company that is required to report about such things in their financials that can effect their business, the bigger this issue becomes the more detrimental the impact it can have on their business and public perception going forward. And apparently the company has a June 30 year end so, their auditors are working on their year end audit and financials right now. Part of that job is to assess the adequacy of reserves for things like the warranty costs, and to note potential legal issues and subsequent events that could impact the business, whether positively or negatively now and going forward. The auditors name can be easily found in the annual report and financials. http://investors.collectors.com/stat...3-6a45441cf111

I can see and understand PWCC paying some of these refunds back to try and help maintain their reputation and business, but in the end, I believe the true liability should actually start (and stop) with PSA as they were the ones who were actually paid to review, evaluate and grade these cards, and apparently missed all the alterations and doctoring. The fact that they may have been duped by a card doctor does not relieve them of their own prescribed policy and liability, at least not if they don't want to completely trash their reputation and business with the collecting community. Of course now PSA (and the other TPGs also involved) should have perfectly good reasons and cases to then go back after the card doctorers or others involved in submitting these altered/doctored cards to them, and sue for damages and to get back what they had to pay out to their customers under their warranty policies. The fact that PWCC instead is the one apparently starting to pay money out to people, plus the question raised by others in this thread as to whether or not PSA may be reimbursing them or contributing to them doing so, raises the question if both parties realize they are somehow in this together and trying to figure out how to appease people and not have the financial and economic consequences blow back on a publicly traded company like PSA.

This next excerpt from PSA's Annual Report really has me thinking about exactly what it is that they do. It states that PSA had 22 experts employed as of 6/30/2018 to grade cards, and I believe it noted/stated elsewhere in their Annual Report that PSA claimed to have evaluated and graded over 2 million submissions in 2018 as well. So, doing some rather simple math, 5 days a week times 52 weeks is 260 days, knock off say 10 days for vacations, another 5 days for sick/other down time, and say another 7 days for holidays and you're down to 238 working days per expert. Well, 2 million submissions divided by 22 experts is 90,909 evaluations/gradings performed by each expert in 2018. Those 90,909 gradings divided by 238 working days comes to 382 cards graded/evaluated each day. With 480 minutes in an 8 hour work day, that comes out to roughly 1.25 minutes (only 75 seconds) spent evaluating/grading each and every card graded and evaluated by PSA last year. And that includes all the time spent to write up and document any notes or issues, do any measuring, testing, reviewing required, handle and pass on the items, and I did't take into consideration going to the bathroom or getting cup of coffee during the day. Quite frankly, even without spending any additional time to properly assess the nuances and differences that occur in the higher end cards to do things like document and prove whether a card should rate as an 8.0 or an 8.5, I find that kind of production physically impossible for that few number of so called "experts" to be able to perform. And there is no way someone would or could be spending any significant time to really look at and determine sophisticated alterations and doctoring of cards and still be putting out that kind of production per year, let alone 22 different people all churning out work at that speed and level. Is it any wonder they are missing so many doctoring/alteration issues if those reported figures and volume of business are accurately stated in their own reports then? And to prove it, just take a watch and time yourself to see exactly how long 75 seconds is and how much you can actually get done in looking at a card and figuring the proper size, grade, condition, etc. And then figure out how to keep that pace up for an entire day. Ain't happening!!!

PSA Trading Card Authentication and Grading Services. Leveraging the credibility and using the methodologies that we
had established with PCGS in the coin market, in 1991 we launched Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA), which instituted
a similar authentication and grading system for trading cards. We are now the leading authenticator and grader of trading cards.
Our independent trading card experts certify the authenticity of and assign quality grades to trading cards using a numeric system
with a scale from 1-to-10 that we developed, together with an adjectival system to describe their condition. At June 30, 2018, we
employed 22 experts who have an average of 14 years of service with the Company. We believe that our authentication and grading
services have removed barriers that were created by the historical seller-biased grading process and, thereby, have improved the
overall marketability of and facilitated commerce in trading cards, including over the Internet and at telephonic sports memorabilia
auctions.


In this last excerpt from their Annual Report I found it intriguing that PSA states that their fees are generally NOT based on the value of the collectible, except for special coin services requested by customers. I've never submitted anything to PSA for grading, but was kind of under the understanding that if I submitted a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle and a 1952 Topps common card for grading that I'd end up paying a whole lot more to get the Mantle card graded. And if so, how is that not a value based fee that goes completely against what they stated?

The amounts of our authentication and grading revenues are affected by (i) the volume and mix of authentication and
grading submissions among coins and trading cards, (ii) in the case of coins and trading cards, the “turnaround” times requested by
our customers, because we charge higher fees for faster service times; and (iii) the mix of authentication and grading submissions
between vintage or “classic” coins and trading cards, on the one hand, and modern coins and trading cards, on the other hand,
because, as vintage or classic collectibles are of significantly higher value they justify a higher average service fee. Our fees are
generally not based on the value of the collectible, except for special coin services requested by customers, for which we charge
supplemental fees that are based on the value of the coin. In fiscal 2018, U.S. vintage coin revenues decreased by $2.0 million
or 13% due to a general slowness in the coin market, although in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018, vintage coin revenues were
consistent with the level generated in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017.

And for those of you talking about and looking into where a company's cash is going, always be sure to check out the Cash Flow statement in the financials (page 52 in the Annual Report) and look at the different categories. Pay attention to increases and decreases to debt, acquisitions of fixed/capital assets, and anything else that may look unusual. The decrease in the dividend definitely shows up in the Cash Flow statement and the explanation and most probable reasoning behind that dividend cut is the combination of expansion into the China/Asian markets and the recent year's downturn in revenue from the coin side of the business, possibly coupled with the fact they are aware of the need to bump up their warranty reserves which may (or may not) be even more radically impacted and reflected for their 6/30/19 year-end with all the recent findings and discoveries involving altered/doctored cards in their holders. In the Company's own commentary to the financials they allude to the reasoning for the dividend reduction has to do with sustainability of cash flows in light of recent activities and expected/projected trends. Of course that was for the 6/30/18 year-end, from a year ago. Will be interesting to see what, if any effect, these recent allegations may have on their financial future, and how they decide to report it, that is for sure. If nothing else, I can assure you that if knowledge of these potential issues does get to PSA's auditors ears, PSA/Collector's Universe will try to sway and convince their auditors that any potential impact to the business would be immaterial and not worth mentioning. Last year's Annual Report for them came out in early September it seems. Too bad it wouldn't make it out before this year's National. Will definitely keep my eyes out for it when it does hit to see how they address and handle this. Should be interesting to say the least!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Bob the site probably isn't conducive to easy searches and the discussion has evolved somewhat chaotically but there has been lots of discussion of these provisions and their relation to the scandal over the past couple of months.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bob the site probably isn't conducive to easy searches and the discussion has evolved somewhat chaotically but there has been lots of discussion of these provisions and their relation to the scandal over the past couple of months.

My bad, so many different threads out there, and I haven't tried reading them all. Sorry then, was just sticking to this one thread and saw the comments about financials. The biggest point I was hoping to get across to people is that it will be interesting to see what, if anything, gets into the financials for this 6/30/19 year end. With everything going on, I hope the PSA auditors are made aware of these events and that it is reflected in their Annual Report to some extent.

[barrysloate]

If it's true they only average 75 seconds per card, and that may not be the exact amount of time, then that simply isn't sufficient to do the job properly. If they have any interest in improving their track record, they will need to spend much more time per card and will have to charge more money to do so.

Would collectors be willing to spend more in exchange for better quality work? I would think so. If $50 gets it wrong, but $100 gets it right, don't you think most collectors would be willing to pay higher fees?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

If it's true they only average 75 seconds per card, and that may not be the exact amount of time, then that simply isn't sufficient to do the job properly. If they have any interest in improving their track record, they will need to spend much more time per card and will have to charge more money to do so.

Would collectors be willing to spend more in exchange for better quality work? I would think so. If $50 gets it wrong, but $100 gets it right, don't you think most collectors would be willing to pay higher fees?

And how much does it cost to get a high-grade mantle Rookie graded? I have a hard time with these prices as it is granted I am not their main target demographic for what I collect but I trust my own judgment better than any grading company. The only only only reason I would ever Pay to grade a card is to sell it!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobC

My bad, so many different threads out there, and I haven't tried reading them all. Sorry then, was just sticking to this one thread and saw the comments about financials. The biggest point I was hoping to get across to people is that it will be interesting to see what, if anything, gets into the financials for this 6/30/19 year end. With everything going on, I hope the PSA auditors are made aware of these events and that it is reflected in their Annual Report to some extent.

Yeah the way it's evolved it's somewhat chaotic on the Board but the events keep unfolding. But certainly the warranty is a big pressure point on Collectors Universe and obviously they have to review the adequacy of the reserve as do the auditors. Of course, since they control the ultimate decisions (short of litigation) as to whether to reimburse, that may play into their calculation. And they clearly, see Sloan's statement several weeks ago, are hoping to foist this onto the sellers.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

And how much does it cost to get a high-grade mantle Rookie graded? I have a hard time with these prices as it is granted I am not their main target demographic for what I collect but I trust my own judgment better than any grading company. You only only only reason I would ever agree to Curtis to sell it!

I know Pete. The $5000 they charge should entitle you to at least an hour of their time. But somewhere with regard to cost vs. time spent, something needs to change. They need to figure it out.

[frankbmd]

At 75 seconds/Card and $50/card fee they are earning $2400/hr.

$5000 per Mantle should be worth at least 2 hours.

Bulk submissions for $10 a pop should get 15 seconds or less.

No wonder their record is impeccable.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Jay- I've come up with an example of how money is minted that I wish to share. I don't speak with many collectors, and I'm sure my story is a familiar one to those who are active in the market. I'll leave out names to protect the innocent.

A number of years ago a good friend of mine had a valuable baseball card graded a 7. He decided to resubmit it to see if he could get a bump. He sent it in again, and again, and again, and again.

The first four times it remained a 7. You would think that PSA was demonstrating some much needed consistency by recognizing the card's limitations. But lo and behold, on the fifth try he got an 8. How did this card suddenly jump a full grade? I have absolutely no idea, nor did he. And let's look at the transaction. PSA got paid five times to grade the same card. Nice work if you can get it. When was the last time you paid your plumber five times to fix the same leak? And my friend, who paid five grading fees and threw them well over $500 (rates were lower then) got back a baseball card that just added around $5000 of value.

So everyone made out like a bandit on that transaction, and absolutely nothing was created or built. All that took place is they passed the same card back and forth to each other. So that's an example of minting money out of thin area. I can't speak for PSA's bottom line, but that one transaction was quite profitable.

Why do some baseball players get turned down for the Hall of Fame and then 6 years later they suddenly are a Hall of Famer...I can see a card being submitted 5 times and only on the 6th time get a difference of opinion...

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

Why do some baseball players get turned down for the Hall of Fame and then 6 years later they suddenly are a Hall of Famer...I can see a card being submitted 5 times and only on the 6th time get a difference of opinion...

My example was really more about how TPG's mint money, and less about the merits of the card. No big deal though.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

My example was really more about how TPG's mint money, and less about the merits of the card. No big deal though.

Yes, and they make money when they keep telling submitters its the same grade over and over. Its great to make extra money on a card you already graded as you would think the money part would be over on that card once you graded it, but its only the beginning it appears.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

If it's true they only average 75 seconds per card, and that may not be the exact amount of time, then that simply isn't sufficient to do the job properly. If they have any interest in improving their track record, they will need to spend much more time per card and will have to charge more money to do so.

Would collectors be willing to spend more in exchange for better quality work? I would think so. If $50 gets it wrong, but $100 gets it right, don't you think most collectors would be willing to pay higher fees?

Barry,

I concur with you and honestly don't believe that it is physically possible for them to be grading that many cards that quickly given the number of grading "experts" they supposedly have. I was merely pointing out the facts and figures they themselves are putting into their annual reports and financials and doing the simple math. My guess is that the so called "experts" on their staff that do the grading are not the only people actually doing and involved in the grading process and that they may have others who do basic, preliminary work, and then have the "experts" get involved in the more higher-end, higher-valued cards at the back end, or in certain cases as needed. So if that is the true case, you may not always have an "expert" you thought you were paying for doing the work in looking at all your submitted cards and grading them for you.

I am guessing that the expectation of most collectors submitting a card for grading is that a single, expert grader takes that card and looks it over and reviews it against a predetermined standard set of measures and tests; mechanical, visual, touch and otherwise, including review with a black light, to completely examine and determine the authenticity of that card, as well as if it then qualifies for an actual grade, and if so, what that grade should be, again based upon a set of pre-described standards and measures that are applied across the board to all cards they are looking at, without regard to a card's age, the actual set it is in, its value, or otherwise. Heck, it just took me over 75 seconds to type all that out, let alone do all that actual work.

I can see that if a grader clearly finds right away some issue that lets them know that a card isn't legit that they wouldn't have to bother going through all the other tests and reviews to determine grade and such, but otherwise, every card should be graded the exact same way and undergo the same exacting procedures and tests and have the same exact standards applied in determining its authenticity and grade, whether it is a '33 Goudey Ruth or a '75 Topps common. And I would hope that most collectors agree this is how it should be.

[jhs5120]

Originally Posted by BobC

Barry,

I concur with you and honestly don't believe that it is physically possible for them to be grading that many cards that quickly given the number of grading "experts" they supposedly have. I was merely pointing out the facts and figures they themselves are putting into their annual reports and financials and doing the simple math. My guess is that the so called "experts" on their staff that do the grading are not the only people actually doing and involved in the grading process and that they may have others who do basic, preliminary work, and then have the "experts" get involved in the more higher-end, higher-valued cards at the back end, or in certain cases as needed. So if that is the true case, you may not always have an "expert" you thought you were paying for doing the work in looking at all your submitted cards and grading them for you.

I am guessing that the expectation of most collectors submitting a card for grading is that a single, expert grader takes that card and looks it over and reviews it against a predetermined standard set of measures and tests; mechanical, visual, touch and otherwise, including review with a black light, to completely examine and determine the authenticity of that card, as well as if it then qualifies for an actual grade, and if so, what that grade should be, again based upon a set of pre-described standards and measures that are applied across the board to all cards they are looking at, without regard to a card's age, the actual set it is in, its value, or otherwise. Heck, it just took me over 75 seconds to type all that out, let alone do all that actual work.

I can see that if a grader clearly finds right away some issue that lets them know that a card isn't legit that they wouldn't have to bother going through all the other tests and reviews to determine grade and such, but otherwise, every card should be graded the exact same way and undergo the same exacting procedures and tests and have the same exact standards applied in determining its authenticity and grade, whether it is a '33 Goudey Ruth or a '75 Topps common. And I would hope that most collectors agree this is how it should be.

Personally, I do not agree. It doesn't take a minute to grade a 1980's common. For ~80% of PSA grades, it shouldn't take more than 20 seconds or so to authenticate and grade.